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Game Recap
NYR2
EDM6
EDM beat NYR 6-2, and the chances backed it up: 2.96 expected goals to 1.85. C. McDavid led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). A. Panarin had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. S. Skinner stopped 32 of 34.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| EDM | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
- 1st 17:34EDMV. Podkolzin0.07 xG
- 1st 19:51EDMD. NurseSH0.10 xG
- 2nd 8:54EDML. Draisaitl0.16 xG
- 2nd 11:58EDME. Bouchard0.15 xG
- 2nd 15:02NYRA. Panarin0.09 xG
- 3rd 5:49EDMC. McDavid0.04 xG
- 3rd 9:37EDMC. McDavid0.22 xG
- 3rd 16:29NYRA. Panarin0.13 xG
Team Stats
NYREDM
34Shots on goal40
1.85Expected goals2.96
62Shot attempts59
265v5 shots on goal33
0/3Power play0/3
21Hits12
10Blocked shots14
6Penalty minutes6
23Giveaways25
10Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYR 1.85 xGEDM 2.96 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Panarin | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:59 | 3:04 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:53 | 1:07 |
| M. Zibanejad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 18:47 | 3:06 |
| V. Trocheck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 17:42 | 3:07 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:28 | 1:03 |
| C. Kreider | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:04 | 3:03 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:04 | 1:04 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:29 | 1:06 |
| J. Brodzinski | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:58 | 0:00 |
| S. Carrick | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:05 | 0:10 |
| J. Vesey | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:26 | 0:10 |
| A. Edstrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:59 | 0:10 |
| A. Fox | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:34 | 3:03 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:19 | 0:01 |
| J. Trouba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 19:18 | 1:16 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:30 | 0:10 |
| B. Schneider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 17:21 | 0:00 |
| V. Mancini | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 15:57 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Quick | 40 | 34 | 6 | .850 | 59:07 | Loss |
| I. Shesterkin | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
EDM Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. McDavid | C | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 20:04 | 2:52 |
| L. Draisaitl | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:08 | 2:52 |
| C. Brown | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:03 | 2:11 |
| M. Janmark | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 12:13 | 0:00 |
| A. Henrique | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:42 | 1:28 |
| V. Podkolzin | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:18 | 0:00 |
| K. Kapanen | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:28 | 0:00 |
| R. Nugent-Hopkins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:56 | 1:52 |
| C. Perry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:39 | 1:50 |
| J. Skinner | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:37 | 1:43 |
| D. Ryan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 | 11:07 | 0:04 |
| D. Caggiula | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:19 | 0:00 |
| E. Bouchard | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 18:19 | 1:48 |
| D. Nurse | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 23:30 | 2:09 |
| T. Stecher | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 17:20 | 0:20 |
| M. Ekholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:04 | 2:12 |
| B. Kulak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 20:14 | 0:00 |
| T. Emberson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 17:59 | 0:19 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Skinner | 34 | 32 | 2 | .941 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. Pickard | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYR 2.9, EDM 3.3 | NYR 2, EDM 6 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | NYR 26.0, EDM 34.4 | NYR 34, EDM 40 |
| Win chance | EDM 56% | EDM won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM C. McDavid | 3.6 | 3 | 1.51 | 3 | 38% | 2 |
| EDM L. Draisaitl | 2.9 | 4 | 1.25 | 2 | 41% | 1 |
| NYR A. Panarin | 2.7 | 6 | 1.09 | 2 | 31% | 2 |
| EDM E. Bouchard | 2.5 | 3 | 0.80 | 2 | 14% | 1 |
| EDM J. Skinner | 2.3 | 4 | 0.50 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 2.3 | 0 | 0.79 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| NYR C. Kreider | 2.3 | 5 | 0.69 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 2.2 | 3 | 0.66 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| EDM M. Ekholm | 2.2 | 4 | 0.47 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.1 | 3 | 0.79 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins | 2.0 | 4 | 0.75 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| EDM D. Nurse | 1.9 | 4 | 0.33 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| NYR R. Smith | 1.6 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| EDM A. Henrique | 1.6 | 2 | 0.46 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| NYR J. Trouba | 1.5 | 3 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 1.5 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| EDM C. Brown | 1.5 | 4 | 0.28 | 2 | 10% | 0 |
| EDM V. Podkolzin | 1.5 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| EDM B. Kulak | 1.5 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR A. Fox | 1.3 | 1 | 0.73 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| EDM C. Perry | 1.3 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NYR K. Kakko | 1.2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NYR J. Brodzinski | 1.2 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| EDM K. Kapanen | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| NYR V. Mancini | 1.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR K. Miller | 1.0 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYR J. Vesey | 0.9 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| EDM T. Emberson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| EDM M. Janmark | 0.9 | 2 | 0.29 | 2 | 11% | 0 |
| NYR S. Carrick | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| EDM T. Stecher | 0.8 | 0 | 0.11 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| EDM D. Ryan | 0.8 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| EDM D. Caggiula | 0.8 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYR R. Lindgren | 0.8 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYR A. Edstrom | 0.7 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.