Game Recap: NYR 4, EDM 3 (OT), October 30, 2025

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Game Recap

NYR4

Final/OTThu, Oct 30, 2025Every game that night

EDM3

NYR beat EDM 4-3 in overtime, with the chances close: 3.57 expected goals to 3.20. D. Nurse led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). A. Henrique had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. I. Shesterkin stopped 33 of 36.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
NYR	1	0	2	1	4
EDM	1	2	0	0	3

1st 5:44NYRJ. Brodzinski0.17 xG
1st 6:51EDMD. Nurse0.05 xG
2nd 8:48EDMM. SavoiePP0.71 xG
2nd 10:24EDMD. Nurse0.07 xG
3rd 8:18NYRB. Schneider0.19 xG
3rd 12:04NYRT. Raddysh0.14 xG
OT 2:49NYRJ. Miller0.20 xG

Team Stats

NYREDM

35Shots on goal36

3.57Expected goals3.20

64Shot attempts57

305v5 shots on goal26

0/2Power play1/3

18Hits17

12Blocked shots13

6Penalty minutes4

13Giveaways13

5Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 3.57 xGEDM 3.20 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR34 on goal, 4 scored

EDM34 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Miller	C	1	0	1	5	0	0	+2	0	21:20	3:01
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	1	1	3	2	0	+1	0	17:58	3:06
W. Cuylle	LW	0	1	1	3	1	1	+1	0	16:06	0:53
C. Sheary	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	14:45	0:56
T. Raddysh	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	14:24	0:32
J. Brodzinski	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	9:05	0:32
M. Zibanejad	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	2	21:48	3:17
A. Panarin	LW	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	20:01	3:22
N. Laba	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	14:52	0:10
J. Parssinen	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	13:35	0:00
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	11:21	0:00
A. Edstrom	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	0	8:15	0:00
B. Schneider	D	1	1	2	1	2	1	+2	0	20:48	0:54
U. Vaakanainen	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+2	0	16:48	0:00
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	0	0	22:56	0:11
A. Fox	D	0	0	0	4	0	3	0	2	20:42	3:06
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	19:46	0:00
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	19:21	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	36	33	3	.917	62:49	Win
J. Quick	0	0	0	–	0:00

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Draisaitl	C	0	1	1	3	0	1	+1	0	25:14	5:14
J. Roslovic	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	+2	0	19:00	0:00
A. Henrique	C	0	1	1	6	0	3	0	0	16:14	1:20
M. Savoie	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	-1	0	13:10	0:56
I. Howard	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	9:36	0:46
C. McDavid	C	0	0	0	6	0	0	-2	0	24:33	5:44
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-2	0	20:29	4:45
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	0	0	5	6	0	+1	0	17:53	0:00
A. Mangiapane	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	16:37	0:00
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	12:32	0:00
D. Tomasek	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	11:43	3:21
D. Nurse	D	2	0	2	4	4	0	+1	0	21:00	0:00
J. Walman	D	0	2	2	1	1	1	+1	0	18:42	1:05
E. Bouchard	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-3	0	22:34	5:14
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	17:57	0:00
M. Ekholm	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	15:59	0:16
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	14:04	0:00
T. Stecher	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	8:47	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Skinner	35	31	4	.886	62:36	OT loss
C. Pickard	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYR

Line 1M. Zibanejad15:48A. Panarin15:54W. Cuylle14:11

Line 2J. Parssinen13:35T. Raddysh12:31N. Laba14:04

Line 3J. Miller14:55A. Lafrenière14:11C. Sheary13:14

Line 4S. Carrick8:37J. Brodzinski8:20A. Edstrom8:02

Pair 1V. Gavrikov20:38A. Fox16:20

Pair 2U. Vaakanainen16:26B. Schneider17:16

Pair 3C. Soucy16:31W. Borgen14:57

EDM

Line 1J. Roslovic18:11V. Podkolzin17:11L. Draisaitl17:00

Line 2R. Nugent-Hopkins14:30C. McDavid15:52A. Mangiapane16:05

Line 3A. Henrique13:58M. Savoie10:32T. Frederic12:32

Line 4I. Howard8:50D. Tomasek8:22

Pair 1J. Walman15:55D. Nurse19:23

Pair 2M. Ekholm14:29E. Bouchard15:15

Pair 3B. Kulak16:33T. Emberson12:05

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYR 2.9, EDM 3.3	NYR 4, EDM 3
Total goals	6.2	7
Shots on goal	NYR 25.5, EDM 30.7	NYR 35, EDM 36
Win chance	EDM 56%	NYR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.3	6	1.67	0	38%	0
EDM L. Draisaitl	3.1	3	1.43	1	44%	0
NYR A. Panarin	2.9	5	1.15	0	34%	0
EDM E. Bouchard	2.6	1	0.81	0	15%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.6	0	0.89	0	28%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	2.1	2	0.83	0	24%	0
NYR J. Miller	2.1	5	1.02	1	29%	1
NYR W. Cuylle	2.0	3	0.49	1	20%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.0	3	0.63	1	23%	0
EDM J. Roslovic	2.0	2	0.52	1	19%	0
EDM D. Nurse	1.9	4	0.34	2	7%	2
EDM J. Walman	1.8	1	0.39	2	9%	0
EDM D. Tomasek	1.8	0	0.41	0	15%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	1.7	1	0.40	0	8%	0
NYR A. Fox	1.7	4	0.77	0	15%	0
NYR C. Sheary	1.4	2	0.39	1	15%	0
EDM A. Mangiapane	1.4	0	0.44	0	20%	0
EDM A. Henrique	1.4	6	0.40	1	18%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.4	5	0.37	0	13%	0
NYR J. Brodzinski	1.3	2	0.30	1	13%	1
EDM M. Savoie	1.2	1	0.20	1	10%	1
EDM T. Frederic	1.2	0	0.28	0	14%	0
EDM B. Kulak	1.2	3	0.23	0	4%	0
EDM I. Howard	1.2	0	0.24	1	12%	0
NYR T. Raddysh	1.2	2	0.27	1	11%	1
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.2	3	0.28	0	6%	0
NYR S. Carrick	1.1	0	0.24	0	10%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.0	0	0.21	0	5%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.0	1	0.22	2	6%	1
NYR N. Laba	0.9	1	0.23	0	9%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.8	0	0.18	0	3%	0
EDM T. Stecher	0.8	1	0.10	0	3%	0
NYR A. Edstrom	0.7	0	0.19	0	9%	0
NYR C. Soucy	0.7	2	0.15	0	5%	0
NYR U. Vaakanainen	0.7	0	0.17	1	2%	0
NYR J. Parssinen	0.6	2	0.23	0	9%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.