Game Recap: NYR 1, EDM 3, November 9, 2026

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Game Recap

NYR1

FinalMon, Nov 9, 2026Every game that night

EDM3

EDM beat NYR 3-1 despite fewer good chances: 1.60 expected goals to 3.41. NYR outshot EDM 29 to 20. L. Draisaitl led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). T. Kartye had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. D. Levi stopped 28 of 29.

Team Stats

NYREDM

29Shots on goal20

3.41Expected goals1.60

60Shot attempts39

185v5 shots on goal15

0/5Power play0/3

19Hits23

7Blocked shots11

28Penalty minutes22

7Giveaways13

3Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 3.41 xGEDM 1.60 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR29 on goal, 1 scored

EDM19 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Zibanejad	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	23:00	5:17
J. Chmelar	RW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	6:44	0:29
T. Kartye	LW	0	0	0	5	4	1	-3	10	22:47	4:48
J. Miller	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	-3	14	21:14	4:37
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	20:01	5:19
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	0	0	6	0	0	-3	0	18:40	4:39
W. Cuylle	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	17:02	3:09
G. Perreault	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16:07	4:11
N. Laba	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	14:22	0:17
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	12:02	3:31
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	6:31	0:03
L. Glendening	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3:46	0:00
A. Fox	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	25:21	7:33
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	21:48	1:27
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	2	20:41	0:00
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	2	20:26	0:27
M. Robertson	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:37	0:00
S. Morrow	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:03	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Garand	19	17	2	.895	58:21	Loss
J. Korpisalo	0	0	0	–	0:00

EDM Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Draisaitl	C	2	0	2	4	0	1	+2	0	23:24	4:30
C. McDavid	C	1	0	1	4	0	1	+2	2	24:34	4:32
V. Podkolzin	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+2	0	15:47	1:07
Z. Hyman	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	18:24	3:41
R. Nugent-Hopkins	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	18:02	4:29
K. Kapanen	RW	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	2	17:22	1:55
J. Dickinson	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	12:40	0:24
M. Joseph	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	12:38	0:05
A. Formenton	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	12:02	0:02
O. Michaels	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	7:13	0:00
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	5:40	0:45
M. Jones	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	4:42	0:00
M. Ekholm	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	+3	10	21:39	0:49
E. Bouchard	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	2	22:22	4:37
R. Shea	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	2	20:51	1:07
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	2	20:22	0:08
S. Mukhamadullin	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	17:37	0:04
T. Emberson	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	13:14	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Levi	29	28	1	.966	60:00	Win
T. Jarry	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYR

Line 1T. Kartye14:46J. Miller13:34P. Dorofeyev12:28

Line 2M. Zibanejad14:26A. Lafrenière13:41G. Perreault11:56

Line 3W. Cuylle10:04N. Laba10:44O. Bjorkstrand8:31

Line 4E. Tolvanen5:41J. Chmelar6:09L. Glendening3:46

Pair 1M. Pettersson17:33B. Schneider16:36

Pair 2V. Gavrikov16:14A. Fox12:56

Pair 3M. Robertson11:02S. Morrow10:03

EDM

Line 1C. McDavid15:17L. Draisaitl15:03V. Podkolzin14:38

Line 2Z. Hyman12:16R. Nugent-Hopkins11:30K. Kapanen12:28

Line 3M. Joseph9:49A. Formenton9:20J. Dickinson8:53

Line 4O. Michaels6:35T. Frederic4:55M. Jones4:42

Pair 1M. Ekholm14:48E. Bouchard15:48

Pair 2C. Murphy14:03R. Shea13:51

Pair 3T. Emberson13:11S. Mukhamadullin13:03

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 18 overs hit (44%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
EDM C. McDavid	3.5	+133	-165	4	Over
EDM L. Draisaitl	3.5	+111	-135	4	Over
EDM E. Bouchard	2.5	-128	+110	1	Under
NYR P. Dorofeyev	2.5	+100	-115	6	Over
EDM Z. Hyman	2.5	+125	-140	1	Under
NYR A. Fox	1.5	-110	-105	3	Over
NYR A. Lafrenière	1.5	-160	+130	0	Under
EDM C. Murphy	1.5	+170	-210	1	Under
NYR G. Perreault	1.5	-125	+115	0	Under
NYR J. Miller	1.5	-130	+125	3	Over
EDM K. Kapanen	1.5	-110	-105	0	Under
EDM M. Ekholm	1.5	+110	-140	2	Over
NYR M. Zibanejad	1.5	-180	+154	1	Under
NYR O. Bjorkstrand	1.5	+120	-150	2	Over
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	1.5	-185	+140	1	Under
NYR T. Kartye	1.5	-115	-111	5	Over
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.5	-120	+105	1	Under
NYR W. Cuylle	1.5	-110	-105	1	Under

3 of 36 overs hit (8%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
EDM A. Formenton	0.5	+800	-1200	0	Under
NYR A. Fox	0.5	+650	-800	0	Under
NYR A. Lafrenière	0.5	+230	-320	0	Under
NYR B. Schneider	0.5	+1800	-2500	0	Under
EDM C. McDavid	0.5	+117	-140	1	Over
EDM C. Murphy	0.5	+1500	-2000	0	Under
EDM E. Bouchard	0.5	+280	-370	0	Under
NYR E. Tolvanen	0.5	+650	-800	0	Under
NYR G. Perreault	0.5	+280	-400	0	Under
NYR J. Chmelar	0.5	+1000	-2000	1	Over
EDM J. Dickinson	0.5	+700	-1200	0	Under
NYR J. Miller	0.5	+300	-400	0	Under
EDM K. Kapanen	0.5	+350	-600	0	Under
EDM L. Draisaitl	0.5	+105	-130	2	Over
NYR L. Glendening	0.5	+1300	-3500	0	Under
EDM M. Ekholm	0.5	+900	-1200	0	Under
EDM M. Jones	0.5	+900	-2500	0	Under
EDM M. Joseph	0.5	+1000	-1600	0	Under
NYR M. Pettersson	0.5	+1700	-3500	0	Under
NYR M. Robertson	0.5	+2100	-3500	0	Under
NYR M. Zibanejad	0.5	+230	-320	0	Under
NYR N. Laba	0.5	+1100	-2000	0	Under
NYR O. Bjorkstrand	0.5	+500	-550	0	Under
EDM O. Michaels	0.5	+750	-1200	0	Under
NYR P. Dorofeyev	0.5	+200	-270	0	Under
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	0.5	+240	-285	0	Under
EDM R. Shea	0.5	+1300	-2800	0	Under
NYR S. Morrow	0.5	+2000	-2800	0	Under
EDM S. Mukhamadullin	0.5	+1500	-4000	0	Under
EDM T. Emberson	0.5	+2200	-4000	0	Under
EDM T. Frederic	0.5	+1100	-2000	0	Under
NYR T. Kartye	0.5	+380	-475	0	Under
NYR V. Gavrikov	0.5	+900	-1600	0	Under
EDM V. Podkolzin	0.5	+300	-370	0	Under
NYR W. Cuylle	0.5	+380	-600	0	Under
EDM Z. Hyman	0.5	+205	-240	0	Under

3 of 19 overs hit (16%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
EDM C. McDavid	1.5	+155	-197	0	Under
NYR A. Fox	0.5	-115	+100	0	Under
NYR A. Lafrenière	0.5	+162	-200	0	Under
EDM E. Bouchard	0.5	-150	+127	0	Under
NYR G. Perreault	0.5	+230	-270	0	Under
NYR J. Miller	0.5	+158	-175	0	Under
EDM K. Kapanen	0.5	+260	-310	0	Under
EDM L. Draisaitl	0.5	-155	+145	0	Under
EDM M. Ekholm	0.5	+210	-220	1	Over
NYR M. Zibanejad	0.5	+146	-160	1	Over
NYR O. Bjorkstrand	0.5	+245	-340	0	Under
NYR P. Dorofeyev	0.5	+225	-285	0	Under
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	0.5	+150	-175	0	Under
EDM R. Shea	0.5	+230	-310	0	Under
NYR T. Kartye	0.5	+235	-325	0	Under
NYR V. Gavrikov	0.5	+250	-350	0	Under
EDM V. Podkolzin	0.5	+225	-265	1	Over
NYR W. Cuylle	0.5	+285	-400	0	Under
EDM Z. Hyman	0.5	+220	-255	0	Under

4 of 19 overs hit (21%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
EDM C. McDavid	1.5	-135	+115	1	Under
EDM L. Draisaitl	1.5	-102	-125	2	Over
NYR A. Fox	0.5	-145	+130	0	Under
NYR A. Lafrenière	0.5	-115	+105	0	Under
EDM E. Bouchard	0.5	-220	+180	0	Under
NYR G. Perreault	0.5	+115	-130	0	Under
NYR J. Miller	0.5	-113	+100	0	Under
EDM K. Kapanen	0.5	+150	-165	0	Under
EDM M. Ekholm	0.5	+155	-175	1	Over
NYR M. Zibanejad	0.5	-142	+120	1	Over
NYR O. Bjorkstrand	0.5	+175	-190	0	Under
NYR P. Dorofeyev	0.5	-110	-105	0	Under
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	0.5	-138	+125	0	Under
EDM R. Shea	0.5	+190	-250	0	Under
NYR T. Kartye	0.5	+130	-160	0	Under
NYR V. Gavrikov	0.5	+185	-250	0	Under
EDM V. Podkolzin	0.5	+105	-125	1	Over
NYR W. Cuylle	0.5	+150	-175	0	Under
EDM Z. Hyman	0.5	-120	-105	0	Under

0 of 15 overs hit (0%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	Result
NYR A. Fox	0.5	+200	-260	Under
NYR A. Lafrenière	0.5	+310	-375	Under
EDM C. McDavid	0.5	-110	-115	Under
EDM E. Bouchard	0.5	+140	-185	Under
NYR G. Perreault	0.5	+475	-1400	Under
NYR J. Miller	0.5	+333	-500	Under
EDM L. Draisaitl	0.5	+110	-135	Under
NYR M. Zibanejad	0.5	+240	-325	Under
NYR O. Bjorkstrand	0.5	+475	-1400	Under
NYR P. Dorofeyev	0.5	+260	-325	Under
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	0.5	+185	-225	Under
NYR T. Kartye	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
EDM V. Podkolzin	0.5	+400	-625	Under
NYR W. Cuylle	0.5	+500	-1600	Under
EDM Z. Hyman	0.5	+360	-550	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
NYR D. Garand	24.5	-111	-105	17	Under
EDM D. Levi	22.5	+102	-125	28	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
NYR A. Fox	1.5	+105	-145	0	Under
NYR B. Schneider	1.5	+115	-160	0	Under
EDM C. Murphy	1.5	-185	+130	1	Under
NYR M. Pettersson	1.5	+100	-140	0	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

MilestoneJason Dickinson EDM 1 assist from 100Not yet: 0 SOG
MilestonePavel Dorofeyev NYR 2 goals from 100Not yet: 6 SOG
MilestoneZach Hyman EDM 3 points from 500Not yet: 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYR 3.1, EDM 3.4	NYR 1, EDM 3
Total goals	6.5	4
Shots on goal	NYR 24.1, EDM 28.5	NYR 29, EDM 20
Win chance	EDM 56%	EDM won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
EDM C. McDavid	3.3	4	1.71	1	40%	1
EDM L. Draisaitl	3.1	4	1.54	2	45%	2
EDM E. Bouchard	2.8	1	1.13	0	21%	0
NYR P. Dorofeyev	2.6	6	0.69	0	33%	0
EDM Z. Hyman	2.4	1	0.80	0	36%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.1	1	0.84	1	27%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.0	0	0.71	0	27%	0
NYR J. Miller	1.9	3	0.86	0	27%	0
EDM K. Kapanen	1.9	0	0.56	0	20%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	1.8	1	0.51	0	23%	0
NYR G. Perreault	1.8	0	0.58	0	24%	0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins	1.7	1	0.72	0	22%	0
EDM V. Podkolzin	1.6	1	0.47	1	19%	0
EDM M. Ekholm	1.5	2	0.48	1	9%	0
NYR T. Kartye	1.5	5	0.54	0	19%	0
NYR A. Fox	1.5	3	0.90	0	12%	0
NYR O. Bjorkstrand	1.4	2	0.41	0	17%	0
EDM A. Formenton	1.4	1	0.33	0	16%	0
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.3	0	0.33	0	7%	0
EDM C. Murphy	1.2	1	0.22	0	5%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.2	2	0.23	0	5%	0
NYR E. Tolvanen	1.1	0	0.27	0	13%	0
EDM R. Shea	1.0	2	0.39	0	6%	0
NYR N. Laba	1.0	2	0.33	0	13%	0
EDM J. Dickinson	1.0	0	0.28	0	12%	0
NYR S. Morrow	1.0	1	0.20	0	3%	0
EDM M. Joseph	0.9	1	0.31	0	10%	0
EDM T. Frederic	0.9	0	0.17	0	9%	0
EDM S. Mukhamadullin	0.9	0	0.17	0	4%	0
NYR M. Robertson	0.9	1	0.20	0	4%	0
EDM M. Jones	0.8	0	0.19	0	9%	0
EDM O. Michaels	0.8	0	0.19	0	7%	0
NYR M. Pettersson	0.8	0	0.27	0	4%	0
NYR J. Chmelar	0.7	2	0.17	1	8%	1
NYR L. Glendening	0.7	0	0.13	0	7%	0
EDM T. Emberson	0.7	1	0.14	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.