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Game Recap
NYR5
FLA1
NYR beat FLA 5-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.00 expected goals to 3.18. FLA outshot NYR 37 to 20. M. Zibanejad scored three for NYR. M. Zibanejad had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. I. Shesterkin stopped 36 of 37.
Team Stats
NYRFLA
20Shots on goal37
2.00Expected goals3.18
44Shot attempts86
155v5 shots on goal29
2/3Power play1/6
20Hits38
27Blocked shots11
12Penalty minutes6
9Giveaways10
3Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYR 2.00 xGFLA 3.18 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Zibanejad | C | 3 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 22:06 | 3:44 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:31 | 3:44 |
| A. Panarin | LW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:29 | 3:44 |
| V. Trocheck | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 20:30 | 3:44 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:48 | 0:00 |
| S. Carrick | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:27 | 0:00 |
| T. Raddysh | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 14:15 | 0:00 |
| G. Perreault | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:23 | 0:00 |
| J. Brodzinski | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11:56 | 0:00 |
| M. Rempe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:02 | 0:00 |
| B. Berard | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:27 | 0:00 |
| J. Dowling | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:05 | 0:00 |
| M. Robertson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 21:50 | 0:00 |
| B. Schneider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 21:48 | 0:00 |
| V. Gavrikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | +2 | 2 | 20:55 | 0:00 |
| A. Fox | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 18:45 | 3:44 |
| W. Borgen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:33 | 0:00 |
| C. Soucy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14:29 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Shesterkin | 37 | 36 | 1 | .973 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Quick | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Reinhart | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:58 | 8:17 |
| S. Bennett | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 19:50 | 7:18 |
| B. Marchand | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:37 | 7:18 |
| E. Rodrigues | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:42 | 7:51 |
| A. Lundell | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:19 | 4:07 |
| C. Verhaeghe | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:24 | 3:36 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:15 | 3:01 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:17 | 1:38 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:11 | 0:11 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:04 | 0:15 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:53 | 0:12 |
| J. Studnicka | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7:11 | 0:06 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 25:41 | 0:42 |
| A. Ekblad | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 2 | 24:00 | 7:34 |
| N. Mikkola | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 21:17 | 0:04 |
| J. Petry | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:21 | 1:54 |
| U. Balinskis | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:10 | 0:06 |
| S. Jones | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3:00 | 1:09 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Bobrovsky | 19 | 15 | 4 | .789 | 58:06 | Loss |
| D. Tarasov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
NYR
Line 1A. Panarin14:44M. Zibanejad13:29W. Cuylle12:33
Line 2V. Trocheck11:37A. Lafrenière14:34G. Perreault12:23
Line 3J. Brodzinski11:56T. Raddysh11:04J. Dowling7:05
Line 4S. Carrick11:45M. Rempe8:02B. Berard7:27
Pair 1M. Robertson18:00B. Schneider17:28
Pair 2V. Gavrikov15:20A. Fox14:53
FLA
Line 1S. Reinhart12:54A. Lundell13:24E. Luostarinen13:07
Line 2A. Greer13:00M. Samoskevich11:39E. Rodrigues11:32
Line 3B. Marchand10:41S. Bennett10:43C. Verhaeghe13:48
Line 4L. Kunin8:41J. Boqvist9:49J. Studnicka7:05
Pair 1G. Forsling21:15A. Ekblad14:42
Pair 2J. Petry17:27U. Balinskis17:04
Pair 3N. Mikkola19:13S. Jones1:51
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYR 2.6, FLA 3.1 | NYR 5, FLA 1 |
| Total goals | 5.7 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | NYR 24.3, FLA 30.1 | NYR 20, FLA 37 |
| Win chance | FLA 58% | NYR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA S. Bennett | 3.2 | 4 | 0.87 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| FLA S. Reinhart | 2.9 | 3 | 1.09 | 1 | 40% | 1 |
| FLA B. Marchand | 2.8 | 5 | 1.01 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| NYR A. Panarin | 2.8 | 5 | 1.05 | 3 | 32% | 2 |
| FLA A. Lundell | 2.4 | 1 | 0.72 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| FLA C. Verhaeghe | 2.3 | 2 | 0.71 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.3 | 6 | 0.79 | 5 | 26% | 3 |
| FLA E. Rodrigues | 2.2 | 2 | 0.54 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 2.1 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 2.1 | 1 | 0.79 | 2 | 27% | 0 |
| FLA S. Jones | 2.0 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 1.9 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| NYR A. Fox | 1.8 | 1 | 0.86 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 1.8 | 2 | 0.54 | 3 | 22% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.6 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| FLA A. Ekblad | 1.6 | 5 | 0.45 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR V. Gavrikov | 1.5 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 1.5 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.4 | 3 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.4 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR B. Berard | 1.3 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYR J. Brodzinski | 1.2 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA N. Mikkola | 1.1 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR W. Borgen | 1.1 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR T. Raddysh | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| FLA U. Balinskis | 1.0 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYR M. Robertson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYR C. Soucy | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR G. Perreault | 0.9 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYR S. Carrick | 0.9 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| FLA J. Petry | 0.8 | 4 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| FLA J. Studnicka | 0.8 | 1 | 0.08 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| FLA L. Kunin | 0.7 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYR J. Dowling | 0.7 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYR M. Rempe | 0.6 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.