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Game Recap
NYR2
FLA3
FLA beat NYR 3-2 despite fewer good chances: 1.89 expected goals to 3.40. NYR outshot FLA 27 to 16. C. Reinhardt led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). V. Gavrikov had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. D. Tarasov stopped 25 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| FLA | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 9:35FLAC. Reinhardt0.26 xG
- 1st 11:31FLAM. Samoskevich0.12 xG
- 1st 15:19NYRM. Robertson0.03 xG
- 2nd 17:20NYRG. Perreault0.20 xG
- 3rd 18:10FLAC. Reinhardt0.12 xG
Team Stats
NYRFLA
27Shots on goal16
3.40Expected goals1.89
56Shot attempts48
225v5 shots on goal14
0/3Power play0/1
28Hits31
14Blocked shots12
4Penalty minutes6
12Giveaways10
3Takeaways1
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYR 3.40 xGFLA 1.89 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:10 | 4:50 |
| G. Perreault | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:36 | 1:01 |
| N. Laba | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:04 | 0:02 |
| M. Zibanejad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:26 | 4:59 |
| J. Miller | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:13 | 5:00 |
| V. Trocheck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:45 | 4:51 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 15:32 | 1:09 |
| J. Brodzinski | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:29 | 1:00 |
| T. Kartye | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 12:35 | 0:00 |
| C. Sheary | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 11:50 | 0:47 |
| J. Chmelar | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:33 | 0:00 |
| A. Sykora | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9:57 | 0:00 |
| A. Fox | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28:10 | 4:54 |
| M. Robertson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:05 | 0:00 |
| V. Gavrikov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:13 | 1:06 |
| W. Borgen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:35 | 0:00 |
| B. Schneider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 15:28 | 0:21 |
| D. Fortescue | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:02 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Quick | 16 | 13 | 3 | .813 | 58:17 | Loss |
| I. Shesterkin | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
FLA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Reinhardt | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:03 | 0:00 |
| V. Hinostroza | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:43 | 1:09 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 14:51 | 0:04 |
| M. Samoskevich | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:38 | 0:48 |
| C. Schwindt | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:09 | 1:08 |
| J. Boqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:52 | 0:49 |
| T. Nosek | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:50 | 0:05 |
| W. Skoog | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 15:14 | 1:05 |
| N. Gregor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:48 | 0:47 |
| A. Greer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:21 | 1:09 |
| E. Luostarinen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:27 | 0:47 |
| N. Foote | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:52 | 0:03 |
| D. Sebrango | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:57 | 0:00 |
| T. Bjornfot | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:35 | 0:06 |
| M. Alscher | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:04 | 0:00 |
| M. Benning | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:00 | 0:57 |
| L. Jansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:38 | 0:00 |
| G. Forsling | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:58 | 1:03 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Tarasov | 27 | 25 | 2 | .926 | 60:00 | Win |
| S. Bobrovsky | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
NYR
Line 1A. Lafrenière14:34G. Perreault14:50M. Zibanejad13:14
Line 2J. Brodzinski12:29W. Cuylle12:55V. Trocheck11:27
Line 4J. Chmelar10:33N. Laba10:11A. Sykora9:57
Pair 1V. Gavrikov18:14A. Fox20:47
Pair 2W. Borgen15:16M. Robertson15:28
Pair 3B. Schneider14:11D. Fortescue12:33
FLA
Line 1V. Hinostroza13:52C. Reinhardt14:24L. Kunin12:52
Line 2C. Schwindt12:30W. Skoog12:47J. Boqvist12:03
Line 3A. Greer11:48E. Luostarinen11:19M. Samoskevich10:50
Pair 1M. Alscher18:00D. Sebrango18:36
Pair 2T. Bjornfot18:42L. Jansson15:11
Pair 3G. Forsling10:56M. Benning15:15
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYR 3.0, FLA 3.1 | NYR 2, FLA 3 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | NYR 24.4, FLA 29.1 | NYR 27, FLA 16 |
| Win chance | FLA 52% | FLA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA M. Samoskevich | 2.4 | 1 | 0.57 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.2 | 2 | 0.88 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 1.9 | 1 | 0.70 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| FLA G. Forsling | 1.7 | 1 | 0.37 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYR J. Miller | 1.7 | 2 | 0.84 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| FLA A. Greer | 1.7 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| NYR A. Fox | 1.7 | 3 | 0.88 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 1.6 | 4 | 0.75 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| FLA E. Luostarinen | 1.6 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 1.5 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| FLA N. Gregor | 1.4 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYR V. Gavrikov | 1.4 | 4 | 0.39 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.3 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA V. Hinostroza | 1.3 | 0 | 0.33 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| NYR G. Perreault | 1.3 | 3 | 0.46 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| FLA N. Foote | 1.2 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| FLA J. Boqvist | 1.2 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NYR J. Brodzinski | 1.1 | 3 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYR A. Sykora | 1.1 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYR C. Sheary | 1.1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NYR M. Robertson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| FLA C. Schwindt | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA L. Kunin | 1.1 | 0 | 0.19 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| FLA C. Reinhardt | 1.0 | 2 | 0.25 | 2 | 13% | 2 |
| FLA D. Sebrango | 1.0 | 2 | 0.20 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| NYR T. Kartye | 1.0 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NYR J. Chmelar | 0.9 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| FLA T. Nosek | 0.9 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| FLA M. Benning | 0.9 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYR N. Laba | 0.9 | 2 | 0.31 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| NYR W. Borgen | 0.9 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| FLA T. Bjornfot | 0.8 | 3 | 0.11 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| NYR D. Fortescue | 0.6 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.