Game Recap: NYR 1, LAK 3, March 25, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

NYR1

FinalTue, Mar 25, 2025Every game that night

LAK3

LAK beat NYR 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.65 expected goals to 2.47. LAK outshot NYR 33 to 23. K. Fiala led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). K. Fiala had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. D. Kuemper stopped 22 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYR	0	1	0	1
LAK	0	2	1	3

2nd 2:10NYRJ. Miller0.65 xG
2nd 10:54LAKK. FialaPP0.15 xG
2nd 17:48LAKP. DanaultPP0.26 xG
3rd 19:45LAKK. FialaEN0.42 xG

Team Stats

NYRLAK

23Shots on goal33

2.47Expected goals3.65

52Shot attempts66

205v5 shots on goal26

0/3Power play2/4

24Hits26

8Blocked shots18

13Penalty minutes11

16Giveaways7

2Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 2.47 xGLAK 3.65 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR22 on goal, 1 scored

LAK33 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Miller	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	21:31	1:07
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	16:36	1:37
V. Trocheck	C	0	0	0	3	4	0	-1	0	25:18	3:14
A. Panarin	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	20:53	3:39
C. Kreider	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	19:24	3:40
M. Zibanejad	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	18:45	3:28
W. Cuylle	LW	0	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	15:40	1:01
J. Brodzinski	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	14:16	1:01
B. Othmann	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	11:46	0:00
J. Parssinen	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	6:28	0:15
M. Rempe	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	7	5:40	0:00
N. Aube-Kubel	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	5:39	0:14
B. Schneider	D	0	1	1	3	1	1	+1	0	18:35	0:00
A. Fox	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-1	2	24:01	3:23
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	2	5	1	0	2	20:02	0:14
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	17:57	0:17
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	16:48	0:00
Z. Jones	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	2	16:02	1:20

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	32	30	2	.938	58:05	Loss
J. Quick	0	0	0	–	0:00

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Fiala	LW	2	0	2	7	1	0	0	0	18:15	4:26
A. Kopitar	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	19:43	4:25
A. Kuzmenko	LW	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	2	17:43	4:25
W. Foegele	LW	0	1	1	5	0	2	0	0	15:36	1:02
P. Danault	C	1	0	1	3	3	2	0	0	15:06	1:21
T. Moore	LW	0	1	1	4	1	1	0	0	15:06	0:59
A. Kempe	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	19:21	4:07
Q. Byfield	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	18:49	0:58
A. Laferriere	RW	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	0	16:44	0:00
T. Lewis	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:03	0:00
S. Helenius	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	7:28	0:00
T. Jeannot	LW	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	5	7:27	0:00
D. Doughty	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	0	24:47	4:26
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	22:11	0:00
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	21:33	0:00
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	20:35	0:09
B. Clarke	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	13:34	1:02
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	11:59	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Kuemper	23	22	1	.957	60:00	Win
D. Rittich	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamArtemi Panarin LAK Faces NYR, his team until Jan 20263 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYR 2.7, LAK 3.1	NYR 1, LAK 3
Total goals	5.8	4
Shots on goal	NYR 24.4, LAK 30.1	NYR 23, LAK 33
Win chance	LAK 56%	LAK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
LAK A. Kempe	2.7	1	0.79	0	31%	0
LAK K. Fiala	2.6	7	0.78	2	28%	2
NYR A. Panarin	2.5	3	0.95	0	30%	0
LAK W. Foegele	2.4	5	0.54	1	22%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	2.2	5	0.43	0	18%	0
LAK T. Moore	2.2	4	0.54	1	22%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.1	0	0.71	0	24%	0
NYR V. Trocheck	2.1	3	0.67	0	23%	0
NYR C. Kreider	2.0	0	0.52	0	30%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	1.9	1	0.65	0	20%	0
NYR J. Miller	1.8	3	0.86	1	26%	1
LAK P. Danault	1.7	3	0.55	1	18%	1
NYR W. Cuylle	1.6	2	0.39	0	18%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	1.6	0	0.47	1	19%	0
LAK B. Clarke	1.5	2	0.39	0	6%	0
NYR A. Fox	1.4	1	0.67	0	10%	0
LAK A. Kuzmenko	1.4	0	0.58	1	24%	0
NYR J. Brodzinski	1.4	1	0.31	0	13%	0
LAK D. Doughty	1.3	1	0.51	0	10%	0
LAK A. Kopitar	1.3	0	0.70	1	21%	0
LAK V. Gavrikov	1.2	0	0.31	0	5%	0
NYR K. Miller	1.2	2	0.30	0	8%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.2	0	0.24	0	5%	0
LAK M. Anderson	1.1	0	0.26	0	5%	0
LAK T. Lewis	1.1	0	0.18	0	8%	0
NYR Z. Jones	1.0	1	0.23	0	4%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.0	3	0.20	1	5%	0
LAK J. Spence	1.0	2	0.28	0	3%	0
NYR W. Borgen	0.9	1	0.21	0	5%	0
LAK T. Jeannot	0.8	1	0.21	0	10%	0
NYR B. Othmann	0.8	2	0.11	0	6%	0
NYR M. Rempe	0.7	0	0.14	0	7%	0
NYR N. Aube-Kubel	0.7	0	0.15	0	7%	0
NYR C. Soucy	0.7	1	0.16	0	5%	0
LAK S. Helenius	0.7	1	0.18	0	8%	0
NYR J. Parssinen	0.6	0	0.20	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.