Game Recap: NYR 3, LAK 4, January 20, 2026

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Game Recap

NYR3

FinalTue, Jan 20, 2026Every game that night

LAK4

LAK beat NYR 4-3, with the chances close: 3.36 expected goals to 2.92. NYR outshot LAK 36 to 27. J. Miller led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). J. Miller had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. A. Forsberg stopped 27 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYR	2	0	1	3
LAK	2	2	0	4

1st 0:18LAKA. Kempe0.06 xG
1st 8:18NYRW. Cuylle0.12 xG
1st 9:00LAKK. Fiala0.10 xG
1st 16:36NYRJ. Miller0.11 xG
2nd 4:23LAKT. Ward0.28 xG
2nd 12:37LAKA. Kuzmenko0.37 xG
3rd 19:33NYRJ. Miller0.03 xG

Team Stats

NYRLAK

36Shots on goal27

2.92Expected goals3.36

63Shot attempts70

265v5 shots on goal25

0/2Power play0/3

24Hits15

21Blocked shots14

6Penalty minutes4

14Giveaways14

2Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 2.92 xGLAK 3.36 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR35 on goal, 3 scored

LAK27 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Miller	C	2	0	2	7	3	1	+1	0	21:35	2:13
M. Zibanejad	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	21:40	2:14
V. Trocheck	C	0	1	1	5	0	2	0	0	21:32	2:15
N. Laba	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	15:14	0:11
W. Cuylle	LW	1	0	1	4	2	0	+1	0	13:47	1:45
A. Panarin	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	21:54	2:23
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	17:54	0:10
G. Perreault	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:24	0:02
B. Othmann	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	10:28	0:00
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-2	0	9:42	0:00
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	6:33	0:00
J. Brodzinski	C	0	0	0	0	5	1	-2	0	5:43	0:00
V. Gavrikov	D	0	1	1	1	1	5	-1	0	25:24	0:40
B. Schneider	D	0	1	1	2	4	2	-2	4	22:12	0:12
S. Morrow	D	0	1	1	2	0	2	+1	0	14:59	0:00
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	19:25	0:00
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	4	2	3	-1	0	18:02	0:00
M. Robertson	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	2	14:26	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Quick	27	23	4	.852	57:06	Loss
S. Martin	0	0	0	–	0:00

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Fiala	LW	1	1	2	1	0	0	+2	0	17:43	4:35
C. Perry	RW	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	19:32	4:22
A. Kempe	RW	1	0	1	4	1	0	+1	0	19:01	4:01
A. Kuzmenko	LW	1	0	1	4	0	0	+2	0	16:19	4:03
A. Turcotte	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	+2	0	14:28	1:39
S. Helenius	C	0	1	1	2	2	1	0	0	9:39	0:02
T. Ward	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	9:00	1:35
J. Malott	LW	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	5:47	0:00
A. Laferriere	RW	0	0	0	1	4	1	+1	2	19:54	2:02
J. Armia	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	17:58	0:00
Q. Byfield	RW	0	0	0	1	1	2	-2	0	16:19	1:16
W. Foegele	LW	0	0	0	2	2	1	-2	0	15:22	0:00
B. Clarke	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	+3	0	20:45	4:39
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	0	23:26	0:00
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	22:39	0:15
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	2	21:14	0:10
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	16:35	1:21
J. Moverare	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	10:19	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Kuemper	8	6	2	.750	19:21
A. Forsberg	28	27	1	.964	40:39	Win

Lines at 5-on-5

NYR

Line 1V. Trocheck14:37A. Panarin16:42A. Lafrenière15:07

Line 2M. Zibanejad14:32G. Perreault16:04J. Miller14:07

Line 3B. Othmann10:28N. Laba13:05W. Cuylle9:24

Line 4S. Carrick6:33T. Raddysh8:37J. Brodzinski5:43

Pair 1B. Schneider20:45V. Gavrikov18:42

Pair 2C. Soucy15:09W. Borgen16:43

Pair 3S. Morrow14:40M. Robertson12:27

LAK

Line 1J. Armia15:53W. Foegele14:39Q. Byfield13:46

Line 2A. Kempe12:38A. Laferriere14:55C. Perry12:39

Line 3K. Fiala13:08A. Kuzmenko12:16A. Turcotte12:49

Line 4S. Helenius9:37T. Ward7:25J. Malott5:47

Pair 1M. Anderson20:13C. Ceci18:38

Pair 2J. Edmundson18:09B. Clarke16:06

Pair 3B. Dumoulin14:41J. Moverare10:06

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamArtemi Panarin LAK Faces NYR, his team until Jan 20262 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYR 2.6, LAK 3.2	NYR 3, LAK 4
Total goals	5.8	7
Shots on goal	NYR 23.8, LAK 29.0	NYR 36, LAK 27
Win chance	LAK 60%	LAK won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
LAK K. Fiala	3.3	1	0.98	2	36%	1
LAK A. Kempe	3.0	4	1.00	1	36%	1
NYR A. Panarin	2.9	2	1.03	0	31%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	2.9	1	0.63	0	25%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	2.5	1	0.82	0	26%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.5	0	0.82	1	27%	0
LAK W. Foegele	2.3	2	0.51	0	23%	0
LAK B. Clarke	2.2	2	0.56	1	11%	0
NYR J. Miller	2.1	7	0.87	2	27%	2
NYR V. Trocheck	2.0	5	0.71	1	24%	0
LAK C. Perry	1.8	0	0.56	1	24%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	1.6	4	0.37	1	16%	1
NYR A. Lafrenière	1.6	3	0.44	0	17%	0
LAK A. Kuzmenko	1.6	4	0.70	1	27%	1
LAK A. Turcotte	1.5	2	0.40	1	13%	0
LAK J. Armia	1.5	0	0.43	0	18%	0
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.5	1	0.36	1	9%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.2	1	0.25	0	4%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.2	2	0.20	1	5%	0
LAK J. Malott	1.2	2	0.17	1	10%	0
LAK T. Ward	1.1	2	0.36	1	13%	1
NYR G. Perreault	1.1	1	0.28	0	13%	0
NYR S. Morrow	1.1	2	0.22	1	3%	0
NYR M. Robertson	1.1	1	0.21	0	5%	0
LAK M. Anderson	1.0	1	0.26	0	5%	0
NYR J. Brodzinski	1.0	0	0.22	0	10%	0
NYR N. Laba	1.0	1	0.22	1	11%	0
NYR B. Othmann	1.0	1	0.12	0	7%	0
NYR T. Raddysh	0.9	0	0.21	0	9%	0
NYR W. Borgen	0.9	2	0.15	0	4%	0
NYR S. Carrick	0.9	0	0.15	0	7%	0
LAK C. Ceci	0.8	1	0.21	0	4%	0
LAK B. Dumoulin	0.8	1	0.21	0	3%	0
NYR C. Soucy	0.7	4	0.14	0	4%	0
LAK S. Helenius	0.6	2	0.15	1	8%	0
LAK J. Moverare	0.4	0	0.07	0	1%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.