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Game Recap
NYR3
MIN2
NYR beat MIN 3-2 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.76 expected goals to 2.53. J. Spurgeon led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). U. Vaakanainen had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. I. Shesterkin stopped 26 of 28.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
- 2nd 6:45NYRV. Trocheck0.23 xG
- 3rd 3:55MINM. JohanssonPP0.09 xG
- 3rd 6:38NYRJ. Brodzinski0.06 xG
- 3rd 8:42MINF. GaudreauPP0.13 xG
- OT 1:51NYRB. Schneider0.13 xG
Team Stats
NYRMIN
31Shots on goal28
3.76Expected goals2.53
68Shot attempts53
235v5 shots on goal20
0/3Power play2/4
34Hits20
12Blocked shots14
8Penalty minutes6
20Giveaways12
3Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYR 3.76 xGMIN 2.53 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Miller | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:20 | 4:38 |
| A. Panarin | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:06 | 4:39 |
| V. Trocheck | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:29 | 1:30 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:22 | 1:16 |
| J. Brodzinski | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 8:39 | 1:14 |
| M. Rempe | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7:14 | 0:00 |
| M. Zibanejad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:47 | 4:30 |
| C. Kreider | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:52 | 4:31 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:05 | 1:19 |
| S. Carrick | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:58 | 0:06 |
| B. Berard | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:46 | 0:07 |
| B. Othmann | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:22 | 0:00 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 22:33 | 1:21 |
| B. Schneider | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:52 | 0:10 |
| Z. Jones | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 6 | 21:28 | 4:39 |
| U. Vaakanainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:55 | 0:00 |
| W. Borgen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:17 | 0:00 |
| C. Soucy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 13:44 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Shesterkin | 28 | 26 | 2 | .929 | 61:51 | Win |
| J. Quick | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gaudreau | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:39 | 2:18 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 16:59 | 2:41 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:36 | 2:35 |
| G. Nyquist | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:09 | 2:32 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 23:19 | 5:09 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:27 | 5:12 |
| M. Rossi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:02 | 5:06 |
| V. Hinostroza | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:10 | 5:08 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 17:08 | 0:00 |
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:51 | 0:00 |
| J. Brazeau | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:26 | 0:00 |
| D. Shore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6:15 | 0:00 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:09 | 2:40 |
| B. Faber | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 29:42 | 5:04 |
| J. Middleton | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 24:30 | 0:15 |
| D. Chisholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 16:40 | 0:00 |
| J. Merrill | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:27 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11:04 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gustavsson | 31 | 28 | 3 | .903 | 61:51 | OT loss |
| M. Fleury | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYR 3.0, MIN 2.8 | NYR 3, MIN 2 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | NYR 28.2, MIN 28.5 | NYR 31, MIN 28 |
| Win chance | NYR 52% | NYR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.6 | 1 | 0.94 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| NYR A. Panarin | 2.9 | 1 | 1.06 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 2.4 | 2 | 0.87 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 2.4 | 2 | 0.74 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.4 | 3 | 0.83 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| NYR C. Kreider | 2.1 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.1 | 4 | 0.50 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 2.0 | 1 | 0.71 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| NYR J. Miller | 1.9 | 3 | 0.92 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 1.9 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 1.7 | 4 | 0.41 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.7 | 1 | 0.46 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| MIN F. Gaudreau | 1.7 | 1 | 0.47 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| MIN V. Hinostroza | 1.7 | 4 | 0.37 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.5 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.5 | 1 | 0.41 | 2 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR B. Berard | 1.4 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MIN G. Nyquist | 1.4 | 2 | 0.57 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| NYR K. Miller | 1.4 | 1 | 0.34 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.4 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 6% | 1 |
| MIN J. Middleton | 1.3 | 4 | 0.31 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYR J. Brodzinski | 1.3 | 2 | 0.28 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| NYR Z. Jones | 1.2 | 3 | 0.27 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.1 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NYR S. Carrick | 1.1 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYR B. Othmann | 1.1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYR W. Borgen | 1.1 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYR U. Vaakanainen | 1.0 | 4 | 0.23 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MIN D. Chisholm | 1.0 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brazeau | 1.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 0.8 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYR M. Rempe | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR C. Soucy | 0.8 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN D. Shore | 0.7 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN J. Merrill | 0.6 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.