Game Recap: NYR 4, MIN 2, March 14, 2026

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Game Recap

NYR4

FinalSat, Mar 14, 2026Every game that night

MIN2

NYR beat MIN 4-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.15 expected goals to 4.18. MIN outshot NYR 48 to 18. V. Gavrikov led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). M. Zuccarello had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. I. Shesterkin stopped 46 of 48.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYR	2	2	0	4
MIN	0	1	1	2

1st 2:41NYRN. LabaPP0.13 xG
1st 15:00NYRV. Gavrikov0.12 xG
2nd 0:35MINM. BoldyPP0.11 xG
2nd 8:41NYRJ. Chmelar0.16 xG
2nd 9:03NYRV. Trocheck0.09 xG
3rd 7:19MIND. Yurov0.24 xG

Team Stats

NYRMIN

18Shots on goal48

2.15Expected goals4.18

37Shot attempts83

135v5 shots on goal30

1/3Power play1/7

13Hits24

21Blocked shots10

18Penalty minutes10

15Giveaways9

2Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 2.15 xGMIN 4.18 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR17 on goal, 4 scored

MIN46 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
V. Trocheck	C	1	0	1	3	1	2	+1	2	20:47	3:09
N. Laba	C	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	0	16:29	0:32
G. Perreault	RW	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	13:46	1:04
T. Kartye	LW	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	2	13:38	0:13
T. Raddysh	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	9:09	0:53
J. Chmelar	RW	1	0	1	2	1	2	+1	0	6:19	0:00
M. Zibanejad	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	20:29	3:14
J. Miller	C	0	0	0	1	2	3	0	2	19:15	3:10
W. Cuylle	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	16:42	1:03
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	15:59	3:12
C. Sheary	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	10:24	0:18
A. Edstrom	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	7:33	0:08
V. Gavrikov	D	1	2	3	1	0	0	+3	6	20:46	1:10
A. Fox	D	0	2	2	0	0	0	+2	2	23:06	3:09
U. Vaakanainen	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	0	14:37	0:10
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	1	3	3	-1	0	23:23	0:41
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	-1	4	18:47	0:00
M. Robertson	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	16:16	0:14

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	48	46	2	.958	60:00	Win
J. Quick	0	0	0	–	0:00

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Boldy	LW	1	0	1	4	2	2	-1	2	22:49	9:19
V. Tarasenko	RW	0	1	1	2	2	2	+1	0	15:11	3:54
D. Yurov	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	12:56	1:58
Y. Trenin	C	0	1	1	2	7	0	0	0	9:56	0:00
K. Kaprizov	LW	0	0	0	6	2	0	-1	0	22:42	9:17
M. Zuccarello	RW	0	0	0	6	0	0	-1	2	19:58	8:41
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	19:02	4:46
J. Eriksson Ek	C	0	0	0	5	0	0	-1	4	18:24	7:04
M. Johansson	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	15:33	1:59
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	12:31	0:00
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	11:49	0:00
N. Sturm	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	8:26	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	-2	0	28:08	9:46
B. Faber	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	2	20:14	1:32
J. Brodin	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	16:32	0:00
J. Spurgeon	D	0	0	0	4	1	0	+1	0	16:15	0:00
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	13:43	0:00
Z. Bogosian	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	12:45	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Gustavsson	18	14	4	.778	57:19	Loss
J. Wallstedt	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYR

Line 1A. Lafrenière12:27G. Perreault12:07M. Zibanejad11:07

Line 2T. Kartye11:47N. Laba11:45C. Sheary10:02

Line 3V. Trocheck12:15W. Cuylle11:32J. Miller10:58

Line 4T. Raddysh8:16A. Edstrom7:25J. Chmelar6:19

Pair 1V. Gavrikov15:57A. Fox15:47

Pair 2B. Schneider13:37M. Robertson15:18

Pair 3W. Borgen12:36U. Vaakanainen11:35

MIN

Line 1R. Hartman12:20K. Kaprizov12:24M. Zuccarello10:49

Line 2M. Johansson12:35M. Boldy12:12J. Ek10:04

Line 3V. Tarasenko10:10D. Yurov10:40N. Foligno9:59

Line 4M. McCarron9:15N. Sturm7:24Y. Trenin8:52

Pair 1Q. Hughes16:58B. Faber16:16

Pair 2J. Spurgeon13:09J. Brodin14:38

Pair 3Z. Bogosian11:58J. Middleton11:07

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

BirthdayJ.T. Miller NYR Turns 33 that day1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYR 2.8, MIN 3.3	NYR 4, MIN 2
Total goals	6.2	6
Shots on goal	NYR 26.3, MIN 30.0	NYR 18, MIN 48
Win chance	MIN 58%	NYR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN K. Kaprizov	3.5	6	1.33	0	45%	0
MIN M. Boldy	3.2	4	1.08	1	35%	1
MIN J. Ek	2.9	5	0.79	0	28%	0
MIN Q. Hughes	2.7	2	1.04	1	12%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.4	2	0.81	0	27%	0
NYR J. Miller	2.2	1	0.89	0	28%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.1	2	0.52	0	22%	0
MIN M. Zuccarello	2.1	6	0.88	0	23%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.1	3	0.65	0	24%	0
NYR V. Trocheck	2.0	3	0.74	1	23%	1
MIN B. Faber	2.0	2	0.48	0	11%	0
NYR A. Fox	1.9	0	0.76	2	13%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	1.9	0	0.45	0	20%	0
NYR G. Perreault	1.8	0	0.53	1	19%	0
MIN V. Tarasenko	1.7	2	0.53	1	21%	0
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.5	1	0.32	3	8%	1
NYR B. Schneider	1.4	1	0.25	0	6%	0
NYR C. Sheary	1.3	0	0.31	0	12%	0
NYR M. Robertson	1.3	1	0.23	0	6%	0
MIN M. McCarron	1.3	2	0.24	0	11%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.2	3	0.49	0	15%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.2	4	0.31	0	7%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.2	2	0.29	1	13%	0
NYR T. Kartye	1.2	0	0.32	1	13%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.1	2	0.28	0	5%	0
MIN D. Yurov	1.1	2	0.41	1	14%	1
NYR W. Borgen	1.1	0	0.20	0	5%	0
NYR N. Laba	1.0	2	0.30	1	12%	1
MIN J. Middleton	1.0	1	0.24	0	5%	0
NYR A. Edstrom	1.0	1	0.19	0	11%	0
NYR T. Raddysh	1.0	1	0.26	1	11%	0
MIN N. Foligno	0.9	1	0.32	0	11%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.9	1	0.18	0	4%	0
NYR U. Vaakanainen	0.8	0	0.18	1	2%	0
MIN N. Sturm	0.8	1	0.20	0	9%	0
NYR J. Chmelar	0.7	2	0.14	1	8%	1

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.