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Game Recap
NYR7
MTL2
NYR beat MTL 7-2, and the chances backed it up: 5.77 expected goals to 2.01. NYR outshot MTL 45 to 23. F. Chytil led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). I. Shesterkin stopped 21 of 23.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| MTL | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
- 1st 0:54NYRM. Zibanejad0.06 xG
- 1st 2:05NYRJ. Brodzinski0.16 xG
- 1st 6:40NYRR. Smith0.18 xG
- 1st 11:05NYRF. ChytilPP0.14 xG
- 1st 12:52MTLN. Suzuki0.10 xG
- 2nd 5:35MTLN. SuzukiPP0.14 xG
- 2nd 8:57NYRB. Schneider0.03 xG
- 3rd 15:41NYRF. Chytil0.22 xG
- 3rd 16:19NYRK. Kakko0.02 xG
Team Stats
NYRMTL
45Shots on goal23
5.77Expected goals2.01
79Shot attempts50
345v5 shots on goal21
1/3Power play1/3
18Hits21
15Blocked shots16
15Penalty minutes25
15Giveaways23
6Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYR 5.77 xGMTL 2.01 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Chytil | C | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 15:03 | 1:15 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 2 | 13:53 | 1:08 |
| R. Smith | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 13:29 | 1:08 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | +3 | 2 | 11:33 | 0:02 |
| A. Panarin | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:15 | 4:19 |
| M. Zibanejad | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:11 | 4:22 |
| S. Carrick | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 11:28 | 0:00 |
| A. Edstrom | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 9:49 | 0:00 |
| J. Brodzinski | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 9:37 | 0:00 |
| V. Trocheck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 20:37 | 4:26 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:53 | 1:16 |
| C. Kreider | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 15:57 | 3:46 |
| B. Schneider | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +4 | 0 | 17:31 | 0:00 |
| A. Fox | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 24:06 | 4:42 |
| V. Mancini | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:39 | 0:02 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20:48 | 0:53 |
| J. Trouba | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +5 | 5 | 18:18 | 0:00 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:20 | 0:02 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Shesterkin | 23 | 21 | 2 | .913 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Quick | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Suzuki | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:00 | 3:45 |
| K. Dach | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:32 | 3:49 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16:22 | 0:13 |
| A. Newhook | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:58 | 3:45 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 16:26 | 0:13 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:17 | 3:43 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:53 | 0:44 |
| O. Kapanen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 13:04 | 0:35 |
| J. Armia | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:10 | 0:35 |
| C. Dvorak | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 11:32 | 0:00 |
| E. Heineman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 9:48 | 0:23 |
| M. Pezzetta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 7:58 | 0:00 |
| D. Savard | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 20:39 | 0:00 |
| M. Matheson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 16:47 | 1:57 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 | 24:10 | 2:28 |
| J. Struble | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 20:17 | 0:08 |
| L. Mailloux | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 19:29 | 0:27 |
| J. Barron | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:01 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Montembeault | 10 | 6 | 4 | .600 | 11:05 | Loss |
| C. Primeau | 35 | 32 | 3 | .914 | 48:55 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYR 3.7, MTL 2.9 | NYR 7, MTL 2 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | NYR 32.4, MTL 29.2 | NYR 45, MTL 23 |
| Win chance | NYR 63% | NYR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL C. Caufield | 3.5 | 1 | 0.71 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| NYR A. Panarin | 3.3 | 5 | 1.36 | 1 | 37% | 0 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 2.8 | 2 | 1.01 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| NYR C. Kreider | 2.7 | 1 | 0.85 | 0 | 40% | 0 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.6 | 5 | 0.97 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 2.6 | 4 | 0.74 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.1 | 2 | 0.76 | 2 | 25% | 2 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 2.1 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL J. Armia | 2.0 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NYR F. Chytil | 2.0 | 4 | 0.47 | 3 | 19% | 2 |
| NYR R. Smith | 1.9 | 3 | 0.59 | 2 | 21% | 1 |
| NYR J. Trouba | 1.9 | 4 | 0.40 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL M. Matheson | 1.8 | 1 | 0.56 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| NYR A. Fox | 1.7 | 2 | 0.94 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.7 | 1 | 0.30 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 1.7 | 3 | 0.33 | 2 | 16% | 0 |
| MTL K. Dach | 1.7 | 4 | 0.42 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| NYR K. Kakko | 1.5 | 3 | 0.36 | 3 | 17% | 1 |
| NYR V. Mancini | 1.4 | 1 | 0.31 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL A. Newhook | 1.4 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.4 | 3 | 0.28 | 2 | 6% | 1 |
| NYR K. Miller | 1.3 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| NYR J. Brodzinski | 1.3 | 1 | 0.24 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| MTL O. Kapanen | 1.3 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MTL J. Barron | 1.2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.1 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| MTL C. Dvorak | 1.1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MTL E. Heineman | 1.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| NYR S. Carrick | 1.0 | 2 | 0.19 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| NYR R. Lindgren | 0.9 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL J. Struble | 0.8 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL D. Savard | 0.8 | 1 | 0.26 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR A. Edstrom | 0.7 | 1 | 0.16 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| MTL M. Pezzetta | 0.7 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.