Game Recap: NYR 4, MTL 3, October 18, 2025

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Game Recap

NYR4

FinalSat, Oct 18, 2025Every game that night

MTL3

NYR beat MTL 4-3, with the chances close: 2.58 expected goals to 2.49. A. Panarin led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). J. Quick stopped 21 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYR	1	0	3	4
MTL	2	0	1	3

1st 1:33MTLJ. Slafkovský0.25 xG
1st 3:42MTLN. SuzukiPP0.13 xG
1st 11:56NYRM. ZibanejadPP0.11 xG
3rd 0:34NYRJ. Miller0.10 xG
3rd 4:11NYRM. Robertson0.03 xG
3rd 5:51NYRA. Panarin0.10 xG
3rd 8:26MTLN. Dobson0.01 xG

Team Stats

NYRMTL

22Shots on goal24

2.58Expected goals2.49

50Shot attempts51

195v5 shots on goal16

1/2Power play1/2

24Hits16

13Blocked shots11

13Penalty minutes13

11Giveaways13

4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 2.58 xGMTL 2.49 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR22 on goal, 4 scored

MTL24 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Panarin	LW	1	3	4	3	0	0	+2	0	20:05	3:32
M. Zibanejad	C	1	1	2	3	1	0	+1	0	22:16	3:32
J. Miller	C	1	0	1	4	2	0	+2	0	20:49	3:16
C. Sheary	LW	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	2	14:46	0:00
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	17:27	3:32
W. Cuylle	LW	0	0	0	1	5	1	0	0	17:20	0:16
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	5	12:48	0:00
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	11:25	0:00
N. Laba	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	10:50	0:00
M. Rempe	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	2	9:38	0:00
A. Edstrom	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	9:24	0:00
J. Parssinen	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	9:05	0:00
A. Fox	D	0	2	2	2	2	2	+1	0	25:02	3:32
V. Gavrikov	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	2	21:57	0:00
M. Robertson	D	1	0	1	2	0	1	-1	0	17:33	0:00
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	20:45	0:00
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	19:05	0:00
U. Vaakanainen	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	12:22	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Quick	24	21	3	.875	59:52	Win
I. Shesterkin	0	0	0	–	0:00

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Suzuki	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	20:50	3:14
C. Caufield	RW	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	19:33	1:55
J. Slafkovský	LW	1	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	18:13	1:44
I. Demidov	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	15:50	1:39
B. Gallagher	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	14:46	1:44
J. Anderson	RW	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	2	13:25	0:00
A. Newhook	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	2	15:59	0:43
J. Evans	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	0	15:39	0:00
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	14:09	1:52
O. Kapanen	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	12:42	0:56
J. Veleno	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	9:44	0:06
O. Beck	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	8:42	0:03
N. Dobson	D	1	0	1	3	1	2	0	0	22:46	1:04
J. Struble	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	16:22	0:00
M. Matheson	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	24:21	0:08
L. Hutson	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	23:40	2:27
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	2	17:54	0:00
A. Xhekaj	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	7	10:20	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Montembeault	22	18	4	.818	57:33	Loss
J. Dobes	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYR

Line 1M. Zibanejad14:27A. Panarin15:53W. Cuylle13:11

Line 2C. Sheary14:09J. Miller13:09A. Lafrenière12:35

Line 3T. Raddysh11:25N. Laba10:50J. Parssinen9:05

Line 4A. Edstrom9:03M. Rempe9:09S. Carrick9:13

Pair 1V. Gavrikov19:04A. Fox17:40

Pair 2W. Borgen16:56M. Robertson15:23

Pair 3U. Vaakanainen11:07B. Schneider14:36

MTL

Line 1C. Caufield14:08J. Slafkovský14:32N. Suzuki13:13

Line 2B. Gallagher12:28J. Evans13:11J. Anderson11:52

Line 3A. Newhook12:06I. Demidov11:35O. Kapanen10:04

Line 4J. Veleno9:01O. Beck8:39Z. Bolduc11:00

Pair 1M. Matheson19:16N. Dobson17:03

Pair 2J. Struble15:24L. Hutson17:21

Pair 3A. Carrier16:11A. Xhekaj9:51

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownAlexis Lafrenière NYR Plays near home (born in St-Eustache)0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYR 3.2, MTL 2.9	NYR 4, MTL 3
Total goals	6.1	7
Shots on goal	NYR 27.1, MTL 26.6	NYR 22, MTL 24
Win chance	NYR 53%	NYR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MTL C. Caufield	3.3	1	0.83	1	34%	0
NYR A. Panarin	3.0	3	1.19	4	36%	1
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.6	3	0.89	2	29%	1
MTL N. Suzuki	2.3	2	0.98	1	28%	1
MTL N. Dobson	2.2	3	0.55	1	10%	1
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.2	0	0.67	0	26%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.2	1	0.67	1	23%	1
NYR J. Miller	2.1	4	1.05	1	31%	1
NYR W. Cuylle	2.0	1	0.47	0	21%	0
NYR A. Fox	2.0	2	0.87	2	16%	0
MTL Z. Bolduc	2.0	2	0.55	0	23%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	1.9	1	0.49	1	19%	0
MTL M. Matheson	1.7	1	0.42	0	8%	0
MTL J. Anderson	1.5	0	0.31	1	16%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.5	3	0.38	0	17%	0
NYR C. Sheary	1.4	2	0.38	1	16%	0
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.3	0	0.31	1	6%	0
NYR S. Carrick	1.3	2	0.27	0	11%	0
MTL I. Demidov	1.2	1	0.51	1	16%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.2	1	0.27	0	7%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.1	2	0.73	0	6%	0
MTL J. Veleno	1.1	2	0.25	0	11%	0
NYR M. Rempe	1.1	1	0.26	0	13%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.1	0	0.23	0	5%	0
NYR T. Raddysh	1.0	0	0.23	0	10%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.0	0	0.38	0	12%	0
MTL O. Kapanen	1.0	1	0.24	0	11%	0
MTL A. Carrier	0.9	1	0.25	0	4%	0
NYR N. Laba	0.9	0	0.24	0	9%	0
MTL O. Beck	0.9	1	0.16	0	8%	0
NYR A. Edstrom	0.9	0	0.23	0	12%	0
NYR U. Vaakanainen	0.8	1	0.21	0	2%	0
NYR M. Robertson	0.8	2	0.15	1	4%	1
MTL A. Xhekaj	0.7	2	0.10	0	3%	0
NYR J. Parssinen	0.7	0	0.27	0	11%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.6	0	0.16	1	3%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.