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Game Recap
NYR0
FinalTue, Dec 17, 2024Every game that night
NSH2

NSH beat NYR 2-0, with the chances close: 3.31 expected goals to 2.63. F. Forsberg led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). L. Schenn had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. J. Saros stopped 25 of 25.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
NYR0000
NSH1012
  1. 1st 13:37NSHJ. Marchessault0.11 xG
  2. 3rd 11:59NSHA. Wilsby0.16 xG

Team Stats

NYRNSH
25Shots on goal32
2.63Expected goals3.31
71Shot attempts57
175v5 shots on goal29
0/2Power play0/2
35Hits27
14Blocked shots29
9Penalty minutes11
13Giveaways16
5Takeaways10

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 2.63 xGNSH 3.31 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdNSH goal, 13:37NSH goal, 11:59

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR24 on goal, 0 scored
NSH32 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. KreiderLW0002300021:253:13
V. TrocheckC0002700020:593:13
A. LafrenièreLW000210-1218:541:13
M. ZibanejadC000211-2017:173:13
F. ChytilC0002110016:402:47
B. BerardLW0001210016:290:00
W. CuylleLW0002200514:250:47
R. SmithRW000030-2212:420:47
S. CarrickC0003120012:230:00
J. VeseyLW0000200011:060:00
A. EdstromC0000110011:020:00
K. KakkoRW000320-1010:140:47
A. FoxD0003050027:113:13
R. LindgrenD0000210021:060:00
Z. JonesD000020-1018:350:47
B. SchneiderD000220-1017:430:00
U. VaakanainenD000122-1015:060:00
C. RuhwedelD000010-1014:250:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
I. Shesterkin32302.93858:18Loss
J. Quick000–0:00

NSH Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
S. StamkosC022101+2018:353:14
F. ForsbergLW022513+2017:343:07
J. MarchessaultRW101220+2017:543:13
R. O'ReillyC0001030016:002:44
C. SissonsC0003010015:260:00
C. SmithRW0000500015:130:02
M. McCarronC0001010014:570:00
G. NyquistRW0000200214:480:44
Z. L'HeureuxLW0001310012:510:00
L. EvangelistaRW0006010212:260:48
T. NovakC0000010011:451:21
M. JankowskiLW0003220011:400:00
A. WilsbyD101133+1022:300:35
B. SkjeiD000001+1023:463:02
N. BlankenburgD000014+1019:580:12
L. SchennD0007340017:540:00
K. GravelD000023+1017:130:00
M. Del GaizoD0001300715:300:58
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Saros252501.00060:00Win
J. Annunen000–0:00

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreNYR 3.1, NSH 3.0NYR 0, NSH 2
Total goals6.12
Shots on goalNYR 30.1, NSH 32.8NYR 25, NSH 32
Win chanceNYR 52%NSH won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
NSH F. Forsberg3.650.92235%0
NSH J. Marchessault3.120.76131%1
NSH S. Stamkos2.710.85232%0
NYR C. Kreider2.420.63032%0
NYR V. Trocheck2.420.74024%0
NYR A. Lafrenière2.220.60023%0
NYR F. Chytil2.220.49019%0
NSH B. Skjei2.200.48011%0
NYR M. Zibanejad2.220.73024%0
NSH L. Evangelista2.160.45016%0
NYR W. Cuylle1.820.47020%0
NSH R. O'Reilly1.810.66023%0
NYR B. Berard1.710.33014%0
NYR R. Smith1.700.51018%0
NSH T. Novak1.600.51019%0
NYR A. Fox1.630.81013%0
NSH G. Nyquist1.500.68020%0
NSH Z. L'Heureux1.410.32013%0
NYR K. Kakko1.430.35015%0
NSH A. Wilsby1.310.2514%1
NYR B. Schneider1.320.2506%0
NSH M. McCarron1.310.26013%0
NSH M. Jankowski1.330.33013%0
NSH N. Blankenburg1.200.2406%0
NSH C. Smith1.200.2409%0
NSH C. Sissons1.230.28012%0
NSH L. Schenn1.270.1404%0
NSH M. Gaizo1.210.2003%0
NYR Z. Jones1.200.2806%0
NYR S. Carrick1.030.20010%0
NSH K. Gravel0.900.1303%0
NYR A. Edstrom0.900.15010%0
NYR J. Vesey0.900.2009%0
NYR R. Lindgren0.900.2205%0
NYR U. Vaakanainen0.810.1502%0
NYR C. Ruhwedel0.700.1104%0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.