Game Recap: NYR 1, NSH 2, December 21, 2025

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Game Recap

NYR1

FinalSun, Dec 21, 2025Every game that night

NSH2

NSH beat NYR 2-1, and the chances backed it up: 2.61 expected goals to 1.49. NSH outshot NYR 32 to 17. R. O'Reilly led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). J. Brodzinski had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. J. Annunen stopped 16 of 17.

Team Stats

NYRNSH

17Shots on goal32

1.49Expected goals2.61

50Shot attempts62

165v5 shots on goal25

0/3Power play0/2

17Hits18

19Blocked shots16

4Penalty minutes6

17Giveaways11

2Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 1.49 xGNSH 2.61 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR17 on goal, 1 scored

NSH30 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Raddysh	RW	0	1	1	1	0	2	+1	0	14:19	0:00
J. Brodzinski	C	1	0	1	5	1	0	0	0	11:43	2:03
V. Trocheck	C	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	0	24:15	4:24
A. Panarin	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	2	23:57	4:31
M. Zibanejad	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	23:01	3:56
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	19:41	3:02
W. Cuylle	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	18:45	2:55
C. Sheary	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	14:07	1:36
N. Laba	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	13:56	1:25
B. Othmann	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	10:43	0:00
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	9:46	0:00
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	26:24	2:42
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	21:36	0:06
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	0	3	3	0	2	16:34	0:00
S. Morrow	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	16:14	3:14
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	0	15:21	0:00
M. Robertson	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	12:27	0:06
U. Vaakanainen	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	3:59	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Quick	31	30	1	.968	59:12	Loss
I. Shesterkin	0	0	0	–	0:00

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. O'Reilly	C	0	2	2	1	0	1	+2	0	21:24	1:59
F. Forsberg	LW	1	0	1	5	1	2	+1	2	16:57	2:04
S. Stamkos	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+2	0	16:49	2:08
C. Smith	RW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	2	12:44	0:01
E. Haula	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	17:03	1:58
L. Evangelista	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	16:27	1:53
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	16:18	2:00
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	2	13:28	0:01
M. Wood	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	12:43	1:55
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:32	0:00
T. Jost	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	10:49	0:00
R. Schaefer	LW	0	0	0	0	7	1	0	0	9:34	0:01
A. Wilsby	D	0	1	1	0	1	3	+1	0	16:40	0:09
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	22:32	2:00
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	-1	0	21:19	0:00
R. Josi	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	19:53	2:12
N. Blankenburg	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	19:45	1:39
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	18:03	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Annunen	17	16	1	.941	60:00	Win
J. Saros	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYR

Line 1A. Panarin18:38M. Zibanejad16:56A. Lafrenière15:39

Line 2V. Trocheck17:29W. Cuylle13:44T. Raddysh13:12

Line 3B. Othmann10:43N. Laba11:22C. Sheary12:31

Line 4S. Carrick8:40J. Brodzinski9:40

Pair 1V. Gavrikov21:05B. Schneider18:56

Pair 2C. Soucy13:56W. Borgen15:29

Pair 3S. Morrow12:31M. Robertson11:30

NSH

Line 1R. O'Reilly15:40F. Forsberg14:28S. Stamkos13:53

Line 2M. Bunting14:18L. Evangelista14:34E. Haula11:57

Line 3F. Svechkov10:11M. Wood10:48T. Jost10:47

Line 4M. McCarron11:31C. Smith9:46R. Schaefer9:33

Pair 1B. Skjei16:34A. Wilsby16:31

Pair 2R. Josi16:53N. Perbix17:20

Pair 3N. Blankenburg16:04N. Hague15:12

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYR 2.9, NSH 2.7	NYR 1, NSH 2
Total goals	5.6	3
Shots on goal	NYR 25.8, NSH 28.6	NYR 17, NSH 32
Win chance	NYR 52%	NSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYR A. Panarin	3.3	1	1.25	0	36%	0
NSH F. Forsberg	3.2	5	0.89	1	34%	1
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.8	0	0.92	0	29%	0
NSH R. Josi	2.6	1	0.75	0	17%	0
NYR V. Trocheck	2.5	0	0.93	0	29%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.4	2	0.77	1	32%	1
NSH L. Evangelista	2.4	4	0.60	0	18%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	2.0	0	0.56	0	22%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	2.0	1	0.76	2	25%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.0	2	0.62	0	23%	0
NSH M. Bunting	1.9	4	0.51	0	20%	0
NSH E. Haula	1.8	1	0.44	0	18%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.7	1	0.37	0	9%	0
NSH M. Wood	1.6	2	0.41	0	17%	0
NYR C. Sheary	1.5	1	0.37	0	14%	0
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.5	2	0.43	0	10%	0
NYR J. Brodzinski	1.4	5	0.33	1	14%	1
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.4	2	0.32	0	7%	0
NYR S. Morrow	1.3	1	0.28	0	5%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.3	1	0.28	0	8%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.3	2	0.24	0	11%	0
NYR N. Laba	1.3	0	0.33	0	14%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	1.2	1	0.28	0	10%	0
NSH C. Smith	1.2	0	0.22	1	10%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.1	0	0.21	1	4%	0
NSH T. Jost	1.1	3	0.24	0	9%	0
NSH N. Perbix	1.1	2	0.28	0	6%	0
NSH N. Hague	1.0	1	0.20	0	5%	0
NYR M. Robertson	1.0	1	0.22	0	6%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.0	0	0.21	0	5%	0
NSH R. Schaefer	1.0	0	0.27	0	14%	0
NYR B. Othmann	0.9	0	0.12	0	6%	0
NYR S. Carrick	0.9	1	0.18	0	7%	0
NYR T. Raddysh	0.9	1	0.23	1	9%	0
NYR C. Soucy	0.9	0	0.20	0	7%	0
NYR U. Vaakanainen	0.6	1	0.19	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.