Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
NYR9
NYI2
NYR beat NYI 9-2, with the chances close: 3.14 expected goals to 3.20. NYI outshot NYR 46 to 32. A. Panarin led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). H. Fasching had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. I. Shesterkin stopped 44 of 46.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 4 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| NYI | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 3:17NYRM. Zibanejad0.04 xG
- 1st 12:49NYRW. Cuylle0.50 xG
- 1st 13:51NYRV. TrocheckPP0.24 xG
- 1st 19:15NYRA. Panarin0.18 xG
- 2nd 8:19NYRJ. Parssinen0.02 xG
- 2nd 19:06NYIM. TsyplakovPP0.08 xG
- 3rd 7:54NYRB. Berard0.21 xG
- 3rd 10:52NYIH. Fasching0.27 xG
- 3rd 12:37NYRB. Berard0.09 xG
- 3rd 15:54NYRA. Lafrenière0.21 xG
- 3rd 18:51NYRA. Panarin0.05 xG
Team Stats
NYRNYI
32Shots on goal46
3.14Expected goals3.20
59Shot attempts80
315v5 shots on goal45
1/1Power play1/2
14Hits23
16Blocked shots16
4Penalty minutes2
16Giveaways14
9Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
NYR 3.14 xGNYI 3.20 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Panarin | LW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:46 | 0:19 |
| J. Parssinen | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 12:53 | 0:00 |
| M. Zibanejad | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:36 | 0:19 |
| J. Miller | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 16:58 | 0:19 |
| V. Trocheck | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:51 | 0:19 |
| W. Cuylle | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 15:27 | 0:00 |
| S. Carrick | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 14:52 | 0:00 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:05 | 0:00 |
| B. Berard | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 12:37 | 0:00 |
| M. Rempe | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 13:05 | 0:00 |
| J. Brodzinski | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:38 | 0:00 |
| C. Kreider | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 12:57 | 0:00 |
| A. Fox | D | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 19:33 | 0:19 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 2 | 20:39 | 0:00 |
| B. Schneider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:48 | 0:00 |
| U. Vaakanainen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:00 | 0:00 |
| C. Soucy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:37 | 0:00 |
| W. Borgen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 18:20 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Shesterkin | 46 | 44 | 2 | .957 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Quick | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Tsyplakov | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:46 | 0:56 |
| H. Fasching | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:35 | 0:00 |
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 14:28 | 0:55 |
| P. Engvall | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:27 | 0:00 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:10 | 0:00 |
| B. Horvat | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 0 | 16:44 | 1:22 |
| A. Lee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 | 16:40 | 1:23 |
| K. Palmieri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 16:13 | 1:22 |
| K. MacLean | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:56 | 0:00 |
| M. Gatcomb | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:36 | 0:00 |
| J. Pageau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:12 | 0:56 |
| M. Martin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:44 | 0:00 |
| A. Pelech | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -5 | 0 | 20:40 | 0:46 |
| T. DeAngelo | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 23:37 | 1:23 |
| S. Mayfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:04 | 0:00 |
| N. Dobson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 19:57 | 1:32 |
| A. Romanov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 18:13 | 0:00 |
| R. Pulock | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 17:39 | 0:55 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Hogberg | 30 | 22 | 8 | .733 | 55:17 | Loss |
| T. Lennox | 2 | 1 | 1 | .500 | 4:43 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYR 2.9, NYI 3.2 | NYR 9, NYI 2 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 11 |
| Shots on goal | NYR 27.5, NYI 30.6 | NYR 32, NYI 46 |
| Win chance | NYI 55% | NYR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI B. Horvat | 3.0 | 4 | 0.79 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| NYR A. Panarin | 2.8 | 4 | 1.02 | 3 | 31% | 2 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.7 | 0 | 0.64 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 2.4 | 4 | 0.72 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 2.3 | 3 | 0.72 | 2 | 25% | 1 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.3 | 3 | 0.75 | 2 | 24% | 1 |
| NYI T. DeAngelo | 2.2 | 1 | 0.59 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| NYI N. Dobson | 2.2 | 2 | 0.58 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NYR J. Miller | 2.0 | 0 | 0.93 | 2 | 28% | 0 |
| NYR C. Kreider | 2.0 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| NYR A. Fox | 1.8 | 1 | 0.79 | 3 | 11% | 0 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 1.8 | 3 | 0.41 | 2 | 18% | 1 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 1.7 | 2 | 0.50 | 2 | 20% | 1 |
| NYI P. Engvall | 1.7 | 4 | 0.39 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| NYR J. Brodzinski | 1.7 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.6 | 0 | 0.58 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| NYI A. Pelech | 1.5 | 3 | 0.34 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| NYI M. Tsyplakov | 1.5 | 4 | 0.47 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.4 | 0 | 0.58 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| NYR K. Miller | 1.4 | 1 | 0.35 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| NYI A. Romanov | 1.4 | 5 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 1.3 | 3 | 0.30 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| NYR B. Berard | 1.3 | 4 | 0.21 | 2 | 10% | 2 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 1.2 | 3 | 0.33 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYI H. Fasching | 1.2 | 6 | 0.27 | 1 | 11% | 1 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.2 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR S. Carrick | 1.1 | 1 | 0.22 | 2 | 10% | 0 |
| NYI M. Gatcomb | 1.1 | 4 | 0.31 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NYR W. Borgen | 1.0 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYR U. Vaakanainen | 1.0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| NYR C. Soucy | 0.9 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI K. MacLean | 0.9 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR M. Rempe | 0.8 | 0 | 0.15 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| NYI S. Mayfield | 0.8 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYI M. Martin | 0.7 | 2 | 0.13 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| NYR J. Parssinen | 0.6 | 2 | 0.20 | 3 | 8% | 1 |
Shots on goal: 13 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.6 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.