Game Recap: NYR 0, NYI 2, December 27, 2025

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Game Recap

NYR0

FinalSat, Dec 27, 2025Every game that night

NYI2

NYI beat NYR 2-0, and the chances backed it up: 4.10 expected goals to 2.46. C. Soucy had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. D. Rittich stopped 27 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYR	0	0	0	0
NYI	1	0	1	2

1st 0:58NYIA. Lee0.18 xG
3rd 19:43NYIS. HolmstromEN0.56 xG

Team Stats

NYRNYI

27Shots on goal26

2.46Expected goals4.10

64Shot attempts55

215v5 shots on goal19

0/3Power play0/5

24Hits14

17Blocked shots19

12Penalty minutes8

9Giveaways15

4Takeaways9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 2.46 xGNYI 4.10 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR27 on goal, 0 scored

NYI26 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Zibanejad	C	0	2	4	-1	0	24:19	5:26
V. Trocheck	C	3	3	0	-2	2	22:38	5:27
A. Panarin	LW	4	0	1	-1	0	21:50	5:40
W. Cuylle	LW	4	5	4	-1	2	20:13	5:27
T. Raddysh	RW	0	1	0	0	0	14:47	0:00
A. Lafrenière	LW	2	0	2	-1	2	14:28	1:41
N. Laba	C	0	1	3	0	2	14:13	0:20
G. Perreault	RW	1	1	0	-1	0	13:27	0:32
S. Carrick	C	2	0	0	0	0	9:43	0:00
J. Brodzinski	C	1	0	0	-1	0	9:01	0:17
B. Othmann	LW	1	0	0	0	0	5:47	0:00
M. Rempe	C	1	4	0	0	0	5:44	0:00
V. Gavrikov	D	1	0	0	0	2	23:47	0:38
B. Schneider	D	0	3	1	0	2	21:46	0:16
S. Morrow	D	1	0	1	-1	0	20:04	5:22
W. Borgen	D	2	1	1	-1	0	16:38	0:00
M. Robertson	D	0	1	0	0	0	15:52	0:00
C. Soucy	D	4	2	0	-1	0	15:33	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	25	24	1	.960	58:10	Loss
J. Quick	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Holmstrom	RW	1	1	1	0	0	+2	0	18:44	3:11
A. Lee	LW	1	1	2	0	3	+1	0	16:10	3:16
B. Horvat	C	0	0	4	1	3	+1	2	22:41	7:27
M. Barzal	C	0	0	4	1	0	+1	0	21:30	7:33
E. Heineman	LW	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	16:59	4:43
C. Ritchie	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	15:19	6:50
J. Drouin	LW	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	15:07	4:13
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:37	0:04
J. Pageau	C	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	12:58	0:10
K. MacLean	C	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	10:10	0:00
M. Shabanov	RW	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	9:38	2:15
M. Gatcomb	C	0	0	1	5	3	0	0	8:32	0:00
M. Schaefer	D	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	27:03	6:35
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	1	3	+1	0	21:34	0:03
A. Pelech	D	0	0	1	0	1	+2	2	21:25	0:16
T. DeAngelo	D	0	0	1	0	0	+1	2	18:24	3:24
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	13:38	0:00
M. Warren	D	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	8:31	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Rittich	27	27	0	1.000	60:00	Win
M. Hogberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYR

Line 1M. Zibanejad12:50A. Panarin14:31A. Lafrenière11:29

Line 2N. Laba11:44T. Raddysh12:41W. Cuylle10:04

Line 3V. Trocheck11:42G. Perreault12:24J. Brodzinski8:44

Line 4S. Carrick5:58M. Rempe5:44B. Othmann5:47

Pair 1B. Schneider17:07V. Gavrikov17:35

Pair 2C. Soucy12:09W. Borgen11:04

Pair 3M. Robertson11:24S. Morrow13:23

NYI

Line 1A. Lee12:17M. Barzal12:16S. Holmstrom11:18

Line 2B. Horvat11:33E. Heineman11:22J. Drouin10:54

Line 3C. Cizikas10:56K. MacLean10:10M. Gatcomb8:32

Line 4C. Ritchie8:29J. Pageau8:22M. Shabanov7:23

Pair 1A. Pelech16:42T. DeAngelo15:00

Pair 2M. Schaefer16:30R. Pulock15:21

Pair 3S. Mayfield11:01M. Warren8:14

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYR 2.7, NYI 2.7	NYR 0, NYI 2
Total goals	5.4	2
Shots on goal	NYR 25.7, NYI 29.2	NYR 27, NYI 26
Win chance	NYI 52%	NYI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYR A. Panarin	3.2	4	1.13	0	35%	0
NYI B. Horvat	3.0	4	0.76	0	31%	0
NYI M. Barzal	2.8	4	0.95	0	25%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.7	0	0.82	0	27%	0
NYI A. Lee	2.6	2	0.60	1	25%	1
NYI M. Schaefer	2.6	2	0.57	0	14%	0
NYR V. Trocheck	2.4	3	0.82	0	28%	0
NYI E. Heineman	2.1	1	0.48	0	24%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	2.0	4	0.54	0	22%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.0	2	0.57	0	23%	0
NYI T. DeAngelo	1.8	1	0.42	0	8%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.7	1	0.28	0	4%	0
NYI J. Drouin	1.5	2	0.67	0	16%	0
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.5	1	0.38	0	8%	0
NYR J. Brodzinski	1.5	1	0.33	0	14%	0
NYI M. Shabanov	1.4	2	0.45	0	15%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.4	0	0.33	0	6%	0
NYR S. Morrow	1.4	1	0.30	0	5%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.3	0	0.25	0	6%	0
NYI M. Gatcomb	1.3	1	0.25	0	15%	0
NYI C. Ritchie	1.3	0	0.31	0	14%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.2	1	0.44	0	15%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.2	1	0.49	1	20%	1
NYR N. Laba	1.2	0	0.31	0	13%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.1	1	0.26	0	10%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	1.0	0	0.17	0	4%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.0	2	0.19	0	5%	0
NYR T. Raddysh	1.0	0	0.26	0	11%	0
NYR M. Robertson	1.0	0	0.18	0	5%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.9	1	0.20	0	9%	0
NYR G. Perreault	0.9	1	0.30	0	12%	0
NYR B. Othmann	0.9	1	0.10	0	6%	0
NYR S. Carrick	0.9	2	0.16	0	7%	0
NYR C. Soucy	0.9	4	0.18	0	6%	0
NYR M. Rempe	0.7	1	0.14	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.