Game Recap: NYR 2, NYI 5, January 28, 2026

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Game Recap

NYR2

FinalWed, Jan 28, 2026Every game that night

NYI5

NYI beat NYR 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.29 expected goals to 1.94. NYI outshot NYR 36 to 16. S. Holmstrom led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). M. Barzal had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. D. Rittich stopped 14 of 16.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYR	1	1	0	2
NYI	2	3	0	5

1st 14:59NYIO. PalatPP0.20 xG
1st 16:10NYIS. Holmstrom0.04 xG
1st 18:04NYRM. ZibanejadPP0.21 xG
2nd 13:12NYIM. BarzalPP0.10 xG
2nd 13:59NYIJ. Pageau0.10 xG
2nd 15:42NYRT. Raddysh0.10 xG
2nd 19:12NYIE. Heineman0.23 xG

Team Stats

NYRNYI

16Shots on goal36

1.94Expected goals3.29

44Shot attempts61

105v5 shots on goal27

1/2Power play2/5

31Hits23

11Blocked shots16

10Penalty minutes6

15Giveaways15

8Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 1.94 xGNYI 3.29 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR16 on goal, 2 scored

NYI35 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Zibanejad	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	-1	0	21:39	1:42
J. Miller	C	0	1	1	1	6	0	-1	0	19:46	1:42
N. Laba	C	0	1	1	0	4	1	0	0	14:25	0:49
T. Raddysh	RW	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	13:28	0:00
G. Perreault	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	16:17	0:49
V. Trocheck	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	2	15:50	1:42
W. Cuylle	LW	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	0	14:18	0:49
B. Othmann	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	13:48	0:49
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	2	13:27	1:34
J. Brodzinski	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:10	0:00
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	4	9:50	0:00
M. Rempe	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	2	9:49	0:00
V. Gavrikov	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	24:44	1:34
W. Borgen	D	0	1	1	0	1	2	-1	0	20:38	0:08
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	3	3	1	0	0	22:52	0:00
M. Robertson	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-2	0	22:14	0:08
U. Vaakanainen	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	13:54	0:00
S. Morrow	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	13:23	0:49

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Martin	36	31	5	.861	60:00	Loss
J. Quick	0	0	0	–	0:00

NYI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Holmstrom	RW	1	2	3	2	0	0	+1	0	15:53	1:51
J. Pageau	C	1	1	2	3	3	1	+2	0	13:31	0:00
O. Palat	LW	1	1	2	2	2	1	+1	0	11:53	0:28
M. Barzal	C	1	0	1	5	0	3	-1	0	20:09	4:12
E. Heineman	LW	1	0	1	4	4	0	+1	0	17:10	3:21
B. Horvat	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	4	17:07	3:25
K. MacLean	C	0	1	1	0	2	1	+1	0	12:12	0:00
M. Gatcomb	C	0	1	1	1	3	1	+1	0	11:03	0:00
A. Duclair	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	16:40	2:43
J. Drouin	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	16:23	1:41
A. Lee	LW	0	0	0	5	1	2	+1	0	15:39	2:52
C. Cizikas	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:07	0:00
M. Schaefer	D	0	1	1	3	2	3	0	0	24:36	3:21
T. DeAngelo	D	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	19:39	2:07
A. Pelech	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	+2	0	17:29	0:00
R. Pulock	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	19:53	0:48
S. Mayfield	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	17:05	0:00
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	16:38	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Rittich	16	14	2	.875	59:22	Win
I. Sorokin	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYR

Line 1M. Zibanejad16:06J. Miller16:04G. Perreault15:28

Line 2T. Raddysh13:09N. Laba13:09B. Othmann12:59

Line 3V. Trocheck11:55A. Lafrenière11:30W. Cuylle11:26

Line 4S. Carrick9:12J. Brodzinski9:32M. Rempe9:03

Pair 1V. Gavrikov20:05B. Schneider19:55

Pair 2W. Borgen16:47M. Robertson18:48

Pair 3U. Vaakanainen11:56S. Morrow12:26

NYI

Line 1A. Duclair13:57M. Barzal13:59J. Drouin14:05

Line 2B. Horvat13:11E. Heineman13:09O. Palat11:25

Line 3J. Pageau12:03S. Holmstrom12:11A. Lee12:38

Line 4C. Cizikas10:56K. MacLean11:34M. Gatcomb10:25

Pair 1R. Pulock16:57M. Schaefer20:20

Pair 2A. Pelech15:44T. DeAngelo17:29

Pair 3S. Mayfield14:45C. Soucy14:42

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYR 2.9, NYI 3.0	NYR 2, NYI 5
Total goals	5.9	7
Shots on goal	NYR 25.5, NYI 28.5	NYR 16, NYI 36
Win chance	NYI 53%	NYI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYI B. Horvat	3.0	1	0.80	1	33%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.6	2	0.88	1	29%	1
NYI A. Lee	2.3	5	0.57	0	23%	0
NYI M. Schaefer	2.3	3	0.61	1	15%	0
NYR J. Miller	2.3	1	0.95	1	30%	0
NYR V. Trocheck	2.2	0	0.78	0	26%	0
NYI E. Heineman	2.2	4	0.53	1	24%	1
NYI T. DeAngelo	2.2	3	0.52	1	10%	0
NYI M. Barzal	2.2	5	0.85	1	22%	1
NYR A. Lafrenière	1.7	2	0.49	0	19%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	1.7	1	0.40	0	18%	0
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.6	2	0.42	1	10%	0
NYI A. Pelech	1.6	2	0.28	1	4%	0
NYI A. Duclair	1.6	1	0.57	0	24%	0
NYI S. Holmstrom	1.4	2	0.63	3	24%	1
NYI J. Drouin	1.3	1	0.59	0	15%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.3	3	0.24	0	6%	0
NYI R. Pulock	1.3	1	0.34	0	6%	0
NYR G. Perreault	1.2	1	0.32	0	14%	0
NYI M. Gatcomb	1.2	1	0.20	1	13%	0
NYI J. Pageau	1.2	3	0.48	2	16%	1
NYR M. Robertson	1.2	1	0.24	0	7%	0
NYI C. Cizikas	1.1	0	0.31	0	12%	0
NYR S. Morrow	1.1	0	0.25	0	3%	0
NYR N. Laba	1.0	0	0.27	1	12%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.0	0	0.18	1	5%	0
NYI O. Palat	1.0	2	0.31	2	13%	1
NYR B. Othmann	1.0	0	0.11	0	7%	0
NYR J. Brodzinski	1.0	0	0.21	0	10%	0
NYI S. Mayfield	0.9	0	0.17	0	4%	0
NYI K. MacLean	0.9	0	0.19	1	9%	0
NYI C. Soucy	0.9	2	0.17	0	5%	0
NYR S. Carrick	0.8	1	0.15	0	7%	0
NYR T. Raddysh	0.8	1	0.20	1	9%	1
NYR M. Rempe	0.7	0	0.13	0	7%	0
NYR U. Vaakanainen	0.7	1	0.17	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.