Game Recap: NYR 2, SEA 0, November 17, 2024

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Game Recap

NYR2

FinalSun, Nov 17, 2024Every game that night

SEA0

NYR beat SEA 2-0, with the chances close: 2.23 expected goals to 1.65. A. Larsson had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. J. Quick stopped 24 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYR	0	1	1	2
SEA	0	0	0	0

2nd 17:30NYRA. Lafrenière0.15 xG
3rd 2:58NYRZ. Jones0.07 xG

Team Stats

NYRSEA

23Shots on goal24

2.23Expected goals1.65

57Shot attempts61

225v5 shots on goal22

0/0Power play0/1

41Hits19

21Blocked shots17

2Penalty minutes0

19Giveaways14

4Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 2.23 xGSEA 1.65 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR23 on goal, 2 scored

SEA24 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Lafrenière	LW	1	0	1	4	2	1	+1	0	18:44	0:00
A. Panarin	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	18:37	0:00
K. Kakko	RW	0	1	1	0	2	1	+1	0	15:24	0:00
W. Cuylle	LW	0	1	1	0	10	1	+1	0	15:22	0:00
V. Trocheck	C	0	0	0	1	6	1	+1	0	20:19	0:00
C. Kreider	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	14:45	0:00
J. Brodzinski	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	14:38	0:00
M. Zibanejad	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	14:37	0:00
R. Smith	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:35	0:00
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	11:03	0:00
A. Edstrom	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	10:27	0:00
J. Vesey	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	10:14	0:00
Z. Jones	D	1	0	1	1	1	0	+2	0	14:54	0:00
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	3	2	3	0	0	24:24	0:00
J. Trouba	D	0	0	0	2	2	3	0	0	23:46	0:00
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	2	22:09	0:00
A. Fox	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	20:33	0:00
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	1	3	4	+2	0	14:29	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Quick	24	24	0	1.000	60:00	Win
I. Shesterkin	0	0	0	–	0:00

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
J. Schwartz	LW	3	2	3	-1	21:55	1:20
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	1	1	0	-1	20:46	1:06
C. Stephenson	C	2	1	0	-1	20:22	1:15
M. Beniers	C	1	1	0	0	20:03	0:47
J. McCann	LW	2	0	0	-1	19:12	0:44
A. Burakovsky	LW	1	1	0	0	16:16	0:38
Y. Gourde	C	1	3	0	-1	15:20	0:07
B. Tanev	LW	2	2	0	-1	13:17	0:07
T. Kartye	LW	0	3	0	0	11:20	0:00
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	0	2	0	11:10	0:33
D. Sprong	RW	1	0	0	0	10:55	1:15
B. Meyers	C	0	1	0	0	8:21	0:00
B. Montour	D	2	2	0	0	24:39	1:16
R. Evans	D	2	1	3	-1	24:14	0:45
A. Larsson	D	4	0	1	-1	20:53	0:07
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	6	0	17:45	0:00
W. Borgen	D	1	1	0	-1	13:41	0:00
J. Mahura	D	1	0	2	-1	13:23	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Grubauer	23	21	2	.913	56:28	Loss
J. Daccord	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamEeli Tolvanen NYR Faces SEA, his team until Apr 20260 SOG
Old teamKaapo Kakko SEA Faces NYR, his team until Dec 20241 A, 0 SOG
Old teamOliver Bjorkstrand NYR Faces SEA, his team until Mar 20251 SOG
Old teamTye Kartye NYR Faces SEA, his team until Feb 20260 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYR 3.3, SEA 2.7	NYR 2, SEA 0
Total goals	6.0	2
Shots on goal	NYR 28.5, SEA 29.5	NYR 23, SEA 24
Win chance	NYR 59%	NYR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYR A. Panarin	2.9	1	1.17	1	33%	0
SEA J. McCann	2.7	2	0.77	0	30%	0
NYR C. Kreider	2.4	1	0.72	0	36%	0
SEA B. Montour	2.4	2	0.51	0	12%	0
NYR V. Trocheck	2.4	1	0.85	0	27%	0
SEA O. Bjorkstrand	2.3	1	0.56	0	21%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.2	2	0.82	0	26%	0
SEA J. Schwartz	2.2	3	0.50	0	21%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.1	4	0.64	1	25%	1
SEA D. Sprong	1.9	1	0.42	0	18%	0
NYR R. Smith	1.7	1	0.57	0	20%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.7	1	0.48	0	19%	0
SEA A. Burakovsky	1.7	1	0.44	0	15%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	1.6	0	0.36	1	17%	0
SEA Y. Gourde	1.6	1	0.40	0	14%	0
NYR A. Fox	1.6	1	0.76	0	12%	0
NYR J. Trouba	1.6	2	0.30	0	6%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.5	0	0.35	0	16%	0
SEA B. Tanev	1.4	2	0.32	0	15%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.3	4	0.21	0	5%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.3	2	0.64	0	19%	0
NYR K. Kakko	1.3	0	0.34	1	15%	0
SEA R. Evans	1.2	2	0.36	0	6%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	1.2	0	0.21	0	5%	0
NYR J. Brodzinski	1.1	2	0.21	0	8%	0
NYR K. Miller	1.1	3	0.31	0	8%	0
SEA T. Kartye	1.1	0	0.22	0	11%	0
NYR Z. Jones	1.1	1	0.25	1	5%	1
NYR B. Schneider	1.1	1	0.22	0	5%	0
NYR J. Vesey	1.0	1	0.24	0	11%	0
NYR S. Carrick	1.0	1	0.20	0	10%	0
SEA W. Borgen	0.9	1	0.19	0	3%	0
NYR R. Lindgren	0.9	0	0.21	0	4%	0
NYR A. Edstrom	0.8	1	0.19	0	11%	0
SEA J. Mahura	0.8	1	0.16	0	2%	0
SEA B. Meyers	0.7	0	0.11	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.