Game Recap: NYR 3, SEA 2 (OT), November 1, 2025

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Game Recap

NYR3

Final/OTSat, Nov 1, 2025Every game that night

SEA2

NYR beat SEA 3-2 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.76 expected goals to 1.54. NYR outshot SEA 27 to 13. W. Cuylle led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). W. Cuylle had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. I. Shesterkin stopped 11 of 13.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
NYR	2	0	0	1	3
SEA	1	1	0	0	2

1st 10:16NYRV. Gavrikov0.01 xG
1st 12:49SEAC. StephensonPP0.06 xG
1st 13:50NYRN. Laba0.35 xG
2nd 6:59SEAB. Montour0.03 xG
OT 2:42NYRW. Cuylle0.17 xG

Team Stats

NYRSEA

27Shots on goal13

3.76Expected goals1.54

72Shot attempts41

165v5 shots on goal10

0/3Power play1/2

24Hits11

13Blocked shots20

4Penalty minutes6

15Giveaways21

5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 3.76 xGSEA 1.54 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR27 on goal, 3 scored

SEA13 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Cuylle	LW	1	1	2	6	2	1	+2	0	16:25	1:41
J. Miller	C	0	1	1	6	1	0	+1	0	22:59	4:11
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	17:46	4:13
N. Laba	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	13:50	0:00
J. Brodzinski	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	12:01	1:47
M. Zibanejad	C	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	0	23:21	4:12
A. Panarin	LW	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	22:40	4:13
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	13:41	0:07
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	12:45	1:40
C. Sheary	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:06	1:42
J. Parssinen	C	0	0	0	0	5	1	0	0	11:27	0:00
A. Edstrom	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	9:31	0:07
A. Fox	D	0	2	2	2	1	1	+3	0	25:04	5:09
V. Gavrikov	D	1	0	1	1	1	2	+2	0	21:47	0:00
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	20:13	0:07
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	19:58	0:07
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	2	17:08	0:44
U. Vaakanainen	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	2	12:34	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
I. Shesterkin	13	11	2	.846	62:42	Win
J. Quick	0	0	0	–	0:00

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Stephenson	C	1	1	2	1	1	1	0	0	24:10	2:01
J. Schwartz	LW	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	0	18:33	0:49
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	1	1	2	1	2	+1	0	18:16	1:57
M. Beniers	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	0	21:20	1:59
J. Eberle	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	18:07	2:00
M. Marchment	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	15:53	0:53
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	15:32	0:51
K. Kakko	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:16	0:48
B. Catton	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	11:36	0:00
R. Winterton	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	11:21	0:00
T. Kartye	LW	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	7:37	0:00
B. Meyers	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	4:57	0:00
B. Montour	D	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	23:17	0:53
V. Dunn	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	-1	0	22:56	1:57
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	1	1	4	-1	0	25:09	0:00
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	2	19:54	0:00
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	-1	0	16:57	0:00
J. Mahura	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	2	12:15	0:02

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Daccord	27	24	3	.889	62:42	OT loss
M. Murray	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYR

Line 1J. Miller16:55A. Panarin17:38M. Zibanejad16:23

Line 2A. Lafrenière12:20N. Laba12:57W. Cuylle13:32

Line 3J. Parssinen11:27T. Raddysh10:42C. Sheary10:24

Line 4S. Carrick11:37J. Brodzinski10:14A. Edstrom9:24

Pair 1C. Soucy19:06W. Borgen19:14

Pair 2V. Gavrikov19:17A. Fox17:21

Pair 3B. Schneider14:45U. Vaakanainen12:34

SEA

Line 1J. Schwartz16:58C. Stephenson17:10E. Tolvanen15:42

Line 2J. Eberle14:41M. Beniers16:06B. Catton11:36

Line 3M. Marchment15:00S. Wright13:53K. Kakko13:28

Line 4R. Winterton9:13B. Meyers4:53T. Kartye4:14

Pair 1A. Larsson20:42V. Dunn19:12

Pair 2B. Montour20:37R. Lindgren18:24

Pair 3J. Oleksiak12:55J. Mahura11:06

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamEeli Tolvanen NYR Faces SEA, his team until Apr 20261 A, 2 SOG
Old teamKaapo Kakko SEA Faces NYR, his team until Dec 20241 SOG
Old teamTye Kartye NYR Faces SEA, his team until Feb 20260 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYR 3.1, SEA 2.9	NYR 3, SEA 2
Total goals	6.0	5
Shots on goal	NYR 27.2, SEA 27.5	NYR 27, SEA 13
Win chance	NYR 53%	NYR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYR A. Panarin	3.0	4	1.17	0	34%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.7	2	0.92	0	29%	0
SEA B. Montour	2.7	2	0.50	1	14%	1
SEA J. Eberle	2.3	1	0.74	0	25%	0
NYR J. Miller	2.3	6	1.06	1	31%	0
SEA V. Dunn	2.2	1	0.64	1	13%	0
SEA J. Schwartz	2.2	2	0.56	1	23%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.1	0	0.65	1	24%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	2.1	6	0.50	2	20%	1
SEA M. Beniers	2.0	0	0.62	0	23%	0
NYR A. Fox	2.0	2	0.87	2	15%	0
SEA M. Marchment	2.0	0	0.57	0	22%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.7	2	0.44	1	20%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.6	1	0.50	0	18%	0
NYR C. Sheary	1.4	1	0.41	0	15%	0
SEA B. Catton	1.4	0	0.39	0	12%	0
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.4	1	0.33	1	6%	1
SEA S. Wright	1.4	1	0.56	0	22%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.3	1	0.29	0	6%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.3	1	0.73	2	21%	1
NYR J. Brodzinski	1.3	0	0.30	1	13%	0
SEA R. Winterton	1.3	0	0.14	0	8%	0
NYR T. Raddysh	1.3	0	0.29	0	12%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.2	2	0.28	0	7%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.2	0	0.24	0	5%	0
NYR S. Carrick	1.1	0	0.25	0	10%	0
SEA T. Kartye	1.1	0	0.27	0	13%	0
NYR N. Laba	1.0	1	0.24	1	10%	1
NYR C. Soucy	0.9	1	0.19	0	6%	0
SEA J. Mahura	0.9	0	0.19	0	3%	0
SEA R. Lindgren	0.8	1	0.23	0	4%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	0.8	0	0.18	0	4%	0
NYR U. Vaakanainen	0.8	0	0.21	0	2%	0
NYR A. Edstrom	0.7	1	0.19	0	9%	0
NYR J. Parssinen	0.7	0	0.26	0	10%	0
SEA B. Meyers	0.6	0	0.14	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.