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Game Recap
NYR4
FinalSat, Nov 7, 2026Every game that night
SEA3

NYR beat SEA 4-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.75 expected goals to 2.74. A. Lafrenière led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). V. Dunn had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. J. Korpisalo stopped 25 of 28.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
NYR3104
SEA0033
  1. 1st 1:35NYRG. Perreault0.28 xG
  2. 1st 9:05NYRT. KartyePP0.10 xG
  3. 1st 13:53NYRJ. Chmelar0.53 xG
  4. 2nd 12:46NYRP. Dorofeyev0.15 xG
  5. 3rd 1:50SEAK. Kakko0.14 xG
  6. 3rd 6:38SEAJ. EberlePP0.46 xG
  7. 3rd 15:02SEAV. Dunn0.06 xG

Team Stats

NYRSEA
26Shots on goal28
3.75Expected goals2.74
53Shot attempts65
225v5 shots on goal27
1/3Power play1/2
36Hits18
18Blocked shots12
4Penalty minutes6
20Giveaways16
1Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 3.75 xGSEA 2.74 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdNYR goal, 1:35NYR goal, 9:05NYR goal, 13:53NYR goal, 12:46SEA goal, 1:50SEA goal, 6:38SEA goal, 15:02

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR26 on goal, 4 scored
SEA28 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
A. LafrenièreLW022212+1019:583:17
M. ZibanejadC022111+1019:233:07
T. KartyeLW1012200019:592:38
G. PerreaultRW1012010018:443:01
P. DorofeyevRW1013100014:573:13
O. BjorkstrandRW0110100012:391:34
N. LabaC011232+1012:110:00
J. ChmelarRW101141+109:490:00
J. MillerC0002000020:192:41
W. CuylleLW000060-1215:291:43
E. TolvanenRW000110-1012:450:00
M. RempeC000151+106:270:00
A. FoxD0111100025:165:44
V. GavrikovD000202-1222:580:59
M. PetterssonD000125+2022:421:07
B. SchneiderD000241+1020:230:06
S. MorrowD0003310012:550:00
M. RobertsonD0000110011:140:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Korpisalo28253.89359:14Win
D. Garand000–0:00

SEA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
B. CattonC022010+2414:500:44
M. BeniersC0112020019:491:56
J. EberleRW1012000016:401:54
C. StephensonC011200-2016:391:55
K. KakkoRW101200+2015:050:43
M. WoodRW011120+1014:070:42
B. McMannC0002300016:561:54
F. GaudreauC000000-1015:250:00
M. SamoskevichRW000010-1014:400:44
B. MeyersC000010-1011:450:00
J. NymanRW000120-1011:030:00
R. WintertonC000312-1010:130:00
B. MontourD011331-1226:420:46
V. DunnD1016000022:481:52
R. EvansD0000130025:290:00
A. LarssonD000211+1019:540:00
J. MahuraD000001-2013:170:00
V. OttavainenD000222-109:230:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Daccord1073.70013:53
P. Grubauer16151.93845:32Loss

Lines at 5-on-5

NYR

Line 1T. Kartye16:34J. Miller15:15O. Bjorkstrand10:55
Line 2M. Zibanejad15:08A. Lafrenière15:39G. Perreault15:08
Line 3E. Tolvanen12:01W. Cuylle12:55P. Dorofeyev11:44
Line 4J. Chmelar8:55N. Laba11:07M. Rempe6:27
Pair 1M. Pettersson19:42B. Schneider17:54
Pair 2V. Gavrikov20:32A. Fox18:09
Pair 3S. Morrow12:55M. Robertson10:40

SEA

Line 1B. McMann15:01M. Beniers15:39J. Eberle14:11
Line 2K. Kakko13:37B. Catton12:55M. Samoskevich13:45
Line 3F. Gaudreau12:14M. Wood12:50C. Stephenson11:41
Line 4R. Winterton9:23B. Meyers8:33J. Nyman11:03
Pair 1R. Evans22:37B. Montour22:49
Pair 2A. Larsson16:27V. Dunn18:26
Pair 3J. Mahura11:06V. Ottavainen9:23

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

12 of 23 overs hit (52%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
NYR A. Lafrenière2.5+140-1552Under
SEA B. McMann2.5-114-1052Under
SEA B. Montour2.5+140-1643Over
SEA M. Samoskevich2.5+143-1850Under
NYR M. Zibanejad2.5+116-1391Under
NYR P. Dorofeyev2.5-125-1023Over
SEA V. Dunn2.5+140-1756Over
NYR A. Fox1.5-130+1101Under
SEA A. Larsson1.5-105–2Over
SEA B. Catton1.5-105-1050Under
NYR E. Tolvanen1.5-118–1Under
SEA F. Gaudreau1.5+130-1400Under
NYR G. Perreault1.5-130+1052Over
SEA J. Eberle1.5-156+1252Over
NYR J. Miller1.5-134+1052Over
SEA K. Kakko1.5+120–2Over
SEA M. Beniers1.5-113+1052Over
SEA M. Wood1.5-110-1051Under
NYR O. Bjorkstrand1.5+110-1350Under
SEA R. Winterton1.5+125–3Over
NYR T. Kartye1.5-114-1152Over
NYR V. Gavrikov1.5-105–2Over
NYR W. Cuylle1.5-144+1350Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

  • Old teamEeli Tolvanen NYR Faces SEA, his team until Apr 20261 SOG
  • Old teamKaapo Kakko SEA Faces NYR, his team until Dec 20241 G, 2 SOG
  • Old teamOliver Bjorkstrand NYR Faces SEA, his team until Mar 20251 A, 0 SOG
  • Old teamTye Kartye NYR Faces SEA, his team until Feb 20261 G, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreNYR 3.2, SEA 3.2NYR 4, SEA 3
Total goals6.47
Shots on goalNYR 26.3, SEA 26.4NYR 26, SEA 28
Win chanceNYR 50%NYR won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
SEA B. Montour2.830.60117%0
SEA B. McMann2.720.65029%0
NYR P. Dorofeyev2.430.64130%1
NYR M. Zibanejad2.310.88228%0
SEA V. Dunn2.360.61113%1
NYR A. Lafrenière2.020.72227%0
SEA M. Samoskevich2.000.55022%0
NYR W. Cuylle2.000.55024%0
NYR J. Miller2.020.90027%0
NYR O. Bjorkstrand1.900.53122%0
NYR G. Perreault1.920.59124%1
SEA J. Eberle1.920.67125%1
NYR A. Fox1.710.87111%0
SEA M. Wood1.610.44120%0
SEA M. Beniers1.620.63124%0
NYR T. Kartye1.620.55119%1
SEA B. Catton1.500.53220%0
NYR E. Tolvanen1.510.37017%0
NYR V. Gavrikov1.420.3306%0
SEA A. Larsson1.320.2906%0
SEA R. Winterton1.330.31011%0
NYR B. Schneider1.320.2204%0
SEA V. Ottavainen1.220.1404%0
SEA F. Gaudreau1.200.41016%0
SEA K. Kakko1.120.57116%1
SEA J. Nyman1.110.27014%0
NYR S. Morrow1.130.2103%0
SEA B. Meyers1.000.30013%0
SEA C. Stephenson1.020.61115%0
SEA R. Evans0.900.3206%0
NYR M. Pettersson0.810.2604%0
SEA J. Mahura0.800.1904%0
NYR N. Laba0.820.26110%0
NYR J. Chmelar0.710.1517%1
NYR M. Rempe0.610.1206%0

Shots on goal: 23 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.