Game Recap: NYR 6, SJS 1, March 29, 2025

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Game Recap

NYR6

FinalSat, Mar 29, 2025Every game that night

SJS1

NYR beat SJS 6-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.49 expected goals to 1.83. NYR outshot SJS 33 to 22. A. Fox led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). A. Fox had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. J. Quick stopped 21 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYR	2	1	3	6
SJS	0	0	1	1

1st 12:04NYRA. Panarin0.18 xG
1st 13:58NYRA. Panarin0.04 xG
2nd 4:48NYRA. Fox0.15 xG
3rd 3:08NYRJ. Brodzinski0.03 xG
3rd 5:47NYRA. Fox0.73 xG
3rd 16:53NYRV. TrocheckSH0.16 xG
3rd 17:46SJSC. LundPP0.09 xG

Team Stats

NYRSJS

33Shots on goal22

3.49Expected goals1.83

70Shot attempts61

255v5 shots on goal20

0/2Power play1/3

20Hits14

20Blocked shots18

8Penalty minutes6

19Giveaways10

4Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 3.49 xGSJS 1.83 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR33 on goal, 6 scored

SJS22 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
V. Trocheck	C	1	1	2	2	2	1	+3	0	18:12	1:21
A. Panarin	LW	2	0	2	3	0	0	+2	0	16:53	1:22
J. Miller	C	0	2	2	1	2	2	+2	0	16:02	1:06
M. Zibanejad	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	+2	2	18:05	1:19
C. Kreider	LW	0	1	1	3	1	1	+2	0	14:45	1:19
J. Brodzinski	C	1	0	1	3	0	1	+1	0	12:53	1:07
B. Othmann	LW	0	1	1	2	2	1	+3	0	11:42	0:00
W. Cuylle	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	2	16:10	1:09
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	16:05	1:09
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	12:28	0:00
N. Aube-Kubel	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	11:24	0:00
B. Berard	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	10:33	0:00
A. Fox	D	2	0	2	6	0	4	+3	0	22:29	1:21
U. Vaakanainen	D	0	2	2	1	0	1	+2	0	16:43	0:00
K. Miller	D	0	1	1	0	1	3	+3	0	21:47	1:07
B. Schneider	D	0	1	1	1	3	5	+2	2	18:48	0:00
W. Borgen	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	17:26	0:00
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	20:16	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Quick	22	21	1	.955	60:00	Win
I. Shesterkin	0	0	0	–	0:00

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
W. Smith	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	-3	0	16:21	1:39
C. Graf	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	2	16:01	0:59
C. Lund	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	-2	0	12:04	0:57
A. Wennberg	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-2	0	20:22	2:25
M. Celebrini	C	0	0	0	4	2	1	-4	0	19:01	2:22
W. Eklund	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-4	0	18:25	2:27
T. Toffoli	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	17:49	2:25
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:33	0:53
T. Dellandrea	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	12:09	0:04
P. Giles	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	11:40	0:00
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:16	0:00
K. Kostin	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	0	9:54	0:00
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	-3	0	24:45	0:00
T. Liljegren	D	0	0	0	2	1	6	-1	0	24:18	1:36
S. Mukhamadullin	D	0	0	0	0	0	5	-3	0	20:59	0:49
L. Carlsson	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	2	18:50	0:00
L. Cagnoni	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-3	0	18:32	2:19
J. Schuldt	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:01	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Georgiev	33	27	6	.818	60:00	Loss
G. Romanov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamAlexander Wennberg SJS Faces NYR, his team until Jun 20242 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYR 3.4, SJS 3.0	NYR 6, SJS 1
Total goals	6.4	7
Shots on goal	NYR 28.0, SJS 29.6	NYR 33, SJS 22
Win chance	NYR 55%	NYR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
SJS M. Celebrini	3.5	4	0.91	0	28%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	3.2	2	0.79	0	33%	0
NYR A. Panarin	2.9	3	1.21	2	35%	2
NYR V. Trocheck	2.5	2	0.87	2	28%	1
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.3	2	0.88	1	29%	0
NYR C. Kreider	2.3	3	0.66	1	35%	0
NYR J. Miller	2.1	1	1.11	2	32%	0
SJS W. Smith	2.0	1	0.69	1	21%	0
SJS W. Eklund	2.0	1	0.78	0	22%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	1.9	1	0.50	0	21%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	1.8	1	0.62	0	23%	0
NYR A. Fox	1.8	6	0.95	2	14%	2
NYR J. Brodzinski	1.6	3	0.38	1	15%	1
SJS C. Graf	1.5	1	0.45	1	18%	0
SJS T. Liljegren	1.4	2	0.32	0	7%	0
NYR K. Miller	1.4	0	0.39	1	10%	0
SJS S. Mukhamadullin	1.2	0	0.35	0	5%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.2	2	0.49	0	15%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.2	1	0.27	1	7%	0
NYR S. Carrick	1.1	1	0.28	0	12%	0
NYR B. Berard	1.1	3	0.24	0	11%	0
SJS L. Carlsson	1.1	1	0.29	0	7%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.1	3	0.23	0	5%	0
SJS P. Giles	1.1	2	0.17	0	11%	0
NYR B. Othmann	1.0	2	0.14	1	8%	0
SJS T. Dellandrea	1.0	1	0.22	0	9%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.0	1	0.26	1	6%	0
NYR U. Vaakanainen	0.9	1	0.25	2	3%	0
SJS K. Kostin	0.9	0	0.32	0	14%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.9	0	0.22	0	11%	0
NYR C. Soucy	0.9	2	0.22	0	6%	0
SJS J. Schuldt	0.8	0	0.14	0	4%	0
NYR N. Aube-Kubel	0.7	0	0.18	0	8%	0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.5	0	0.12	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.