Game Recap: NYR 1, SJS 3, January 23, 2026

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Game Recap

NYR1

FinalFri, Jan 23, 2026Every game that night

SJS3

SJS beat NYR 3-1, with the chances close: 3.30 expected goals to 3.26. M. Celebrini led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). M. Zibanejad had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. A. Nedeljkovic stopped 28 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYR	1	0	0	1
SJS	3	0	0	3

1st 1:09SJSM. CelebriniPP0.37 xG
1st 3:08SJSP. RegendaPP0.13 xG
1st 7:37SJSM. Celebrini0.16 xG
1st 12:50NYRS. Carrick0.58 xG

Team Stats

NYRSJS

29Shots on goal32

3.26Expected goals3.30

66Shot attempts60

215v5 shots on goal19

0/2Power play2/7

18Hits14

11Blocked shots18

14Penalty minutes4

13Giveaways15

3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 3.26 xGSJS 3.30 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR29 on goal, 1 scored

SJS31 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Carrick	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	9:07	0:00
T. Raddysh	RW	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	2	8:24	0:00
A. Blidh	LW	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	6:14	0:00
M. Zibanejad	C	0	0	0	6	1	0	-1	2	23:12	3:18
J. Miller	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	22:49	2:42
A. Panarin	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	21:10	3:15
V. Trocheck	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	20:19	2:49
W. Cuylle	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	15:12	0:42
N. Laba	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	15:06	0:45
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	14:20	0:47
G. Perreault	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	2	13:40	1:18
B. Othmann	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	9:01	0:00
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	28:02	2:56
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	22:46	0:00
M. Robertson	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	2	17:45	0:00
S. Morrow	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	16:11	1:28
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	2	1	5	-1	4	15:19	0:00
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	12:50	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Martin	32	29	3	.906	56:08	Loss
J. Quick	0	0	0	–	0:00

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Celebrini	C	2	0	2	4	0	0	0	0	24:36	8:32
W. Smith	C	0	2	2	2	0	0	+1	0	20:03	7:29
C. Graf	RW	0	2	2	0	2	0	+1	2	19:13	3:54
P. Regenda	LW	1	0	1	3	2	0	0	0	18:55	5:13
T. Toffoli	C	0	1	1	4	0	0	0	0	16:11	6:56
M. Misa	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	12:28	3:53
A. Wennberg	C	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	24:28	7:04
W. Eklund	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	18:10	5:21
A. Gaudette	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	12:18	0:00
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	8:51	0:00
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	7:31	0:00
R. Reaves	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	3:56	0:00
D. Orlov	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	20:40	5:25
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	2	19:51	0:07
T. Liljegren	D	0	0	0	3	1	2	+1	0	19:41	1:03
J. Klingberg	D	0	0	0	4	2	2	-1	0	19:26	7:01
V. Desharnais	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	16:35	0:07
S. Dickinson	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	13:07	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Nedeljkovic	29	28	1	.966	60:00	Win
Y. Askarov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYR

Line 1M. Zibanejad12:20J. Miller12:03G. Perreault11:01

Line 2A. Panarin14:03A. Lafrenière11:02V. Trocheck10:07

Line 3N. Laba10:40W. Cuylle8:21B. Othmann7:48

Line 4S. Carrick7:09T. Raddysh7:56A. Blidh6:14

Pair 1B. Schneider15:38V. Gavrikov15:47

Pair 2W. Borgen11:42M. Robertson13:35

Pair 3C. Soucy10:14S. Morrow12:55

SJS

Line 1M. Celebrini13:13C. Graf12:42W. Smith12:34

Line 2A. Wennberg11:28P. Regenda12:05T. Toffoli9:15

Line 3A. Gaudette12:18W. Eklund9:57M. Misa8:35

Line 4B. Goodrow6:05Z. Ostapchuk6:35R. Reaves3:56

Pair 1T. Liljegren15:57M. Ferraro15:51

Pair 2D. Orlov14:04J. Klingberg12:25

Pair 3V. Desharnais10:58S. Dickinson10:37

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamAlexander Wennberg SJS Faces NYR, his team until Jun 20240 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYR 3.3, SJS 3.0	NYR 1, SJS 3
Total goals	6.3	4
Shots on goal	NYR 27.0, SJS 27.1	NYR 29, SJS 32
Win chance	NYR 55%	SJS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
SJS M. Celebrini	3.7	4	1.32	2	34%	2
NYR A. Panarin	3.2	3	1.34	0	38%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.7	6	1.08	0	33%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	2.5	4	0.72	1	28%	0
NYR J. Miller	2.4	2	1.15	0	34%	0
SJS W. Eklund	2.4	2	0.77	0	22%	0
NYR V. Trocheck	2.3	2	0.93	0	29%	0
SJS W. Smith	2.2	2	0.79	2	26%	0
SJS P. Regenda	1.9	3	0.40	1	20%	1
NYR A. Lafrenière	1.8	1	0.59	0	22%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	1.8	2	0.49	0	20%	0
SJS J. Klingberg	1.6	4	0.53	0	13%	0
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.6	3	0.48	0	12%	0
SJS M. Misa	1.4	1	0.42	1	13%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.3	0	0.29	0	7%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.3	0	0.52	2	20%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.3	0	0.64	0	17%	0
SJS A. Gaudette	1.3	2	0.33	0	17%	0
SJS D. Orlov	1.2	1	0.44	0	8%	0
NYR G. Perreault	1.2	1	0.37	0	16%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.2	1	0.24	0	5%	0
NYR S. Morrow	1.2	0	0.30	0	4%	0
NYR N. Laba	1.1	0	0.32	0	14%	0
NYR M. Robertson	1.1	1	0.26	0	7%	0
NYR B. Othmann	1.1	2	0.15	0	8%	0
SJS T. Liljegren	1.0	3	0.28	0	6%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.0	2	0.21	0	6%	0
SJS S. Dickinson	0.9	2	0.19	0	4%	0
NYR T. Raddysh	0.9	0	0.26	1	11%	0
NYR C. Soucy	0.9	0	0.20	0	6%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.9	0	0.19	0	9%	0
NYR S. Carrick	0.9	1	0.18	1	8%	1
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.7	1	0.14	0	8%	0
NYR A. Blidh	0.6	3	0.15	1	6%	0
SJS V. Desharnais	0.6	1	0.12	0	2%	0
SJS R. Reaves	0.6	1	0.13	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.