Game Recap: NYR 2, STL 3, December 15, 2024

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

NYR2

FinalSun, Dec 15, 2024Every game that night

STL3

STL beat NYR 3-2, with the chances close: 2.05 expected goals to 1.36. R. Thomas led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). B. Berard had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. J. Hofer stopped 26 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYR	0	0	2	2
STL	1	2	0	3

1st 18:51STLP. Buchnevich0.14 xG
2nd 6:33STLJ. Kyrou0.17 xG
2nd 10:28STLR. Thomas0.10 xG
3rd 10:18NYRB. Berard0.07 xG
3rd 11:37NYRW. Cuylle0.17 xG

Team Stats

NYRSTL

28Shots on goal24

1.36Expected goals2.05

58Shot attempts41

245v5 shots on goal23

0/0Power play0/1

41Hits20

8Blocked shots19

2Penalty minutes0

14Giveaways15

2Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 1.36 xGSTL 2.05 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR28 on goal, 2 scored

STL22 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	19:13	0:00
F. Chytil	C	0	1	1	0	4	0	0	0	19:06	0:00
W. Cuylle	LW	1	0	1	2	2	0	+1	0	15:08	0:00
B. Berard	LW	1	0	1	5	4	0	+1	0	13:08	0:00
V. Trocheck	C	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	19:07	0:00
R. Smith	RW	0	0	0	1	4	2	0	0	16:20	0:00
C. Kreider	LW	0	0	0	3	5	0	-2	0	15:17	0:00
J. Brodzinski	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	2	14:39	0:00
S. Carrick	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	13:52	0:00
M. Zibanejad	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	13:04	0:00
A. Edstrom	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	12:48	0:00
J. Vesey	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	11:22	0:00
A. Fox	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	24:54	0:00
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	21:58	0:00
Z. Jones	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	21:28	0:00
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	-1	0	19:12	0:00
C. Mackey	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	16:17	0:00
C. Ruhwedel	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	13:40	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Quick	24	21	3	.875	57:27	Loss
I. Shesterkin	0	0	0	–	0:00

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
R. Thomas	C	1	1	2	2	1	0	+2	18:08	1:18
P. Buchnevich	LW	1	0	1	3	3	1	+2	19:08	1:18
J. Neighbours	LW	0	1	1	0	1	2	+2	17:07	1:14
B. Schenn	C	0	1	1	1	2	2	0	17:02	0:42
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	1	1	4	3	1	0	14:04	0:00
J. Kyrou	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	13:41	1:18
D. Holloway	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	16:36	0:46
B. Saad	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	15:26	0:42
Z. Bolduc	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	13:26	0:36
M. Joseph	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	13:03	0:00
N. Walker	LW	0	0	0	2	6	0	0	12:59	0:00
A. Texier	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:01	0:00
C. Fowler	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+2	23:50	0:01
C. Parayko	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	23:49	0:06
J. Faulk	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	21:03	1:18
P. Broberg	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	19:49	0:41
R. Suter	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	15:19	0:00
S. Perunovich	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	14:29	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Hofer	28	26	2	.929	60:00	Win
J. Binnington	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYR 3.2, STL 3.0	NYR 2, STL 3
Total goals	6.2	5
Shots on goal	NYR 30.0, STL 30.0	NYR 28, STL 24
Win chance	NYR 53%	STL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
STL J. Kyrou	3.0	3	0.85	1	32%	1
NYR C. Kreider	2.5	3	0.66	0	34%	0
NYR V. Trocheck	2.4	3	0.78	0	26%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.3	2	0.80	0	26%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	2.3	3	0.80	1	27%	1
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.2	2	0.60	1	24%	0
STL D. Holloway	2.1	1	0.47	0	20%	0
NYR F. Chytil	2.1	0	0.47	1	19%	0
STL J. Faulk	2.1	2	0.50	0	8%	0
STL J. Neighbours	2.0	0	0.50	1	25%	0
STL R. Thomas	2.0	2	1.01	2	25%	1
STL B. Schenn	2.0	1	0.59	1	21%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	1.9	2	0.49	1	21%	1
STL C. Parayko	1.8	1	0.38	0	8%	0
NYR R. Smith	1.7	1	0.52	0	19%	0
NYR A. Fox	1.7	1	0.78	0	12%	0
STL B. Saad	1.5	2	0.42	0	19%	0
NYR B. Berard	1.5	5	0.29	1	13%	1
STL Z. Bolduc	1.4	0	0.39	0	15%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.3	0	0.24	0	6%	0
NYR J. Brodzinski	1.3	4	0.23	0	9%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.2	0	0.39	0	7%	0
STL A. Texier	1.2	1	0.31	0	13%	0
NYR C. Mackey	1.2	0	0.23	0	7%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.2	4	0.21	1	11%	0
STL M. Joseph	1.1	0	0.28	0	10%	0
NYR Z. Jones	1.1	2	0.26	0	5%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.1	1	0.38	0	6%	0
STL R. Suter	1.0	0	0.24	0	4%	0
NYR S. Carrick	0.9	1	0.20	0	10%	0
STL N. Walker	0.9	2	0.23	0	11%	0
NYR R. Lindgren	0.9	1	0.21	0	4%	0
NYR A. Edstrom	0.9	1	0.15	0	10%	0
NYR J. Vesey	0.9	0	0.20	0	9%	0
NYR C. Ruhwedel	0.7	0	0.11	0	3%	0
STL S. Perunovich	0.5	1	0.29	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.