Game Recap: NYR 2, VAN 0, October 28, 2025

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Game Recap

NYR2

FinalTue, Oct 28, 2025Every game that night

VAN0

NYR beat VAN 2-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.12 expected goals to 2.14. A. Fox led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). T. Raddysh had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. J. Quick stopped 23 of 23.

Team Stats

NYRVAN

25Shots on goal23

3.12Expected goals2.14

51Shot attempts55

205v5 shots on goal16

0/3Power play0/3

18Hits19

11Blocked shots10

11Penalty minutes13

9Giveaways6

4Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 3.12 xGVAN 2.14 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR23 on goal, 1 scored

VAN23 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Zibanejad	C	1	0	1	3	3	1	+1	0	23:51	4:08
W. Cuylle	LW	0	1	1	3	1	2	+1	2	21:35	2:22
A. Lafrenière	LW	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	17:34	3:51
S. Carrick	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	5	10:56	0:00
A. Panarin	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	22:12	4:07
J. Miller	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	19:24	3:38
C. Sheary	LW	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	15:27	2:02
T. Raddysh	RW	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	12:02	1:48
J. Brodzinski	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:29	1:58
A. Edstrom	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	9:42	0:00
N. Laba	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	9:40	0:00
J. Parssinen	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	8:30	0:00
A. Fox	D	0	2	2	1	2	1	+1	0	22:04	4:25
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	21:57	0:07
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	0	20:08	0:05
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	18:33	1:25
C. Soucy	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	2	16:59	0:04
U. Vaakanainen	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	14:15	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Quick	23	23	0	1.000	60:00	Win
I. Shesterkin	0	0	0	–	0:00

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Pettersson	C	1	3	0	-1	0	22:19	3:14
K. Sherwood	LW	0	5	1	-1	2	19:29	2:20
J. DeBrusk	LW	2	0	0	-1	0	19:01	2:54
E. Kane	LW	1	1	1	-2	2	18:57	2:08
B. Boeser	RW	0	0	1	-2	0	18:25	3:16
D. O'Connor	LW	2	2	1	0	0	15:47	0:00
L. Reichel	LW	4	0	0	-1	0	15:40	1:26
C. Garland	RW	2	0	0	0	0	15:30	1:24
A. Räty	C	1	0	1	0	0	10:54	0:07
L. Karlsson	C	0	3	0	0	0	9:04	1:38
M. Sasson	C	1	0	0	0	0	8:30	0:45
A. Bains	LW	0	0	0	0	2	8:13	0:06
F. Hronek	D	3	2	2	-1	0	28:33	3:12
T. Myers	D	2	0	1	-1	0	21:46	0:08
M. Pettersson	D	1	1	1	0	7	19:45	0:00
E. Pettersson	D	0	1	1	-1	0	17:33	0:00
P. Joseph	D	1	0	0	0	0	14:38	0:12
T. Willander	D	2	1	0	0	0	12:37	1:22

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Demko	24	23	1	.958	57:19	Loss
K. Lankinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYR

Line 1A. Panarin16:59M. Zibanejad15:45W. Cuylle15:36

Line 2J. Miller12:19C. Sheary12:41A. Lafrenière13:21

Line 3S. Carrick9:48J. Brodzinski8:31A. Edstrom9:42

Line 4T. Raddysh9:44N. Laba9:11J. Parssinen8:30

Pair 1V. Gavrikov17:59A. Fox16:18

Pair 2C. Soucy14:25W. Borgen17:13

Pair 3B. Schneider15:24U. Vaakanainen13:09

VAN

Line 1K. Sherwood13:37D. O'Connor13:05L. Reichel13:53

Line 2E. Pettersson15:40J. DeBrusk13:43B. Boeser13:10

Line 3L. Karlsson7:26M. Sasson7:45A. Bains8:07

Line 4E. Kane14:50A. Räty9:35

Pair 1T. Myers18:05M. Pettersson17:46

Pair 2E. Pettersson15:07F. Hronek20:12

Pair 3P. Joseph13:54T. Willander9:48

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJ.T. Miller NYR Faces VAN, his team until Jan 20252 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYR 3.1, VAN 3.0	NYR 2, VAN 0
Total goals	6.0	2
Shots on goal	NYR 26.5, VAN 26.4	NYR 25, VAN 23
Win chance	NYR 51%	NYR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYR A. Panarin	2.9	1	1.17	0	34%	0
VAN C. Garland	2.7	2	0.82	0	27%	0
VAN E. Kane	2.6	1	0.59	0	27%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.6	3	0.88	1	27%	1
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.4	2	0.65	0	28%	0
VAN B. Boeser	2.4	0	0.86	0	33%	0
NYR J. Miller	2.2	2	1.06	0	30%	0
VAN K. Sherwood	2.1	0	0.60	0	24%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.0	1	0.63	1	23%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	2.0	1	0.91	0	29%	0
NYR A. Fox	1.9	1	0.86	2	17%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	1.9	3	0.45	1	19%	0
VAN D. O'Connor	1.4	2	0.31	0	13%	0
NYR C. Sheary	1.4	3	0.40	0	15%	0
NYR J. Brodzinski	1.4	0	0.30	0	13%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.3	3	0.49	0	6%	0
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.3	1	0.33	0	7%	0
VAN A. Räty	1.3	1	0.35	0	17%	0
VAN T. Myers	1.2	2	0.29	0	5%	0
NYR S. Carrick	1.2	1	0.25	1	9%	1
VAN L. Reichel	1.1	4	0.33	0	12%	0
NYR T. Raddysh	1.1	4	0.26	0	11%	0
NYR W. Borgen	1.1	1	0.24	0	6%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.1	0	0.24	0	7%	0
VAN M. Sasson	1.0	1	0.27	0	13%	0
VAN L. Karlsson	1.0	0	0.24	0	9%	0
VAN M. Pettersson	0.9	1	0.31	0	4%	0
NYR N. Laba	0.9	1	0.25	0	10%	0
VAN P. Joseph	0.8	1	0.13	0	3%	0
NYR C. Soucy	0.8	0	0.17	0	6%	0
NYR U. Vaakanainen	0.8	1	0.19	0	3%	0
NYR A. Edstrom	0.7	1	0.20	0	9%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	0.7	0	0.13	0	3%	0
VAN A. Bains	0.6	0	0.13	0	7%	0
NYR J. Parssinen	0.6	1	0.23	0	9%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.