Game Recap: NYR 5, VAN 1, November 13, 2026

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Game Recap

NYR5

FinalFri, Nov 13, 2026Every game that night

VAN1

NYR beat VAN 5-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.29 expected goals to 2.48. G. Gawdin led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). D. Garand stopped 27 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYR	1	4	0	5
VAN	1	0	0	1

1st 12:13VANE. Pettersson0.10 xG
1st 18:47NYRG. Perreault0.12 xG
2nd 8:21NYRO. BjorkstrandPP0.20 xG
2nd 13:00NYRG. Gawdin0.21 xG
2nd 15:14NYRA. Lafrenière0.15 xG
2nd 16:10NYRG. Gawdin0.11 xG

Team Stats

NYRVAN

31Shots on goal28

4.29Expected goals2.48

52Shot attempts65

275v5 shots on goal22

1/2Power play0/4

21Hits28

21Blocked shots10

8Penalty minutes2

11Giveaways11

3Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

NYR 4.29 xGVAN 2.48 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

NYR31 on goal, 5 scored

VAN28 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

NYR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Miller	C	0	2	2	2	0	1	+1	0	18:49	3:06
A. Lafrenière	LW	1	1	2	2	0	0	+1	0	14:37	0:49
G. Perreault	RW	1	1	2	2	0	1	+1	0	14:15	0:39
G. Gawdin	C	2	0	2	2	1	0	+2	0	7:59	0:00
M. Zibanejad	C	0	1	1	3	2	3	0	0	18:26	0:39
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	14:39	3:05
J. Chmelar	RW	0	1	1	1	1	1	+2	0	9:02	0:00
W. Cuylle	LW	0	0	0	2	1	2	+1	0	19:16	2:56
T. Kartye	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	17:28	3:06
N. Laba	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	16:47	0:00
P. Dorofeyev	RW	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	13:57	0:40
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	0	0	1	4	1	+1	0	9:53	0:00
A. Fox	D	0	1	1	3	0	1	+2	4	24:05	3:45
V. Gavrikov	D	0	1	1	0	2	1	+2	0	20:25	0:00
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	2	0	4	0	0	23:58	0:00
B. Schneider	D	0	0	0	1	6	3	0	2	18:30	0:00
S. Morrow	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	15:40	0:00
M. Robertson	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	2	14:38	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Garand	28	27	1	.964	59:36	Win
J. Korpisalo	0	0	0	–	0:00

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Pettersson	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	21:37	4:47
B. Boeser	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	2	21:34	4:55
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	0	0	3	3	1	0	0	18:58	5:11
F. Chytil	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	17:14	3:11
L. Karlsson	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	16:38	3:06
J. Lekkerimäki	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-2	0	16:20	4:35
M. Rossi	C	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	15:58	2:51
P. Cotter	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	0	15:42	3:07
L. Ohgren	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	0	12:58	0:00
M. Sasson	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	9:48	0:00
D. O'Connor	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	9:38	0:00
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	7:46	0:00
Z. Buium	D	0	1	1	0	1	1	-1	0	24:38	3:26
F. Hronek	D	0	0	0	1	5	1	-1	0	25:38	4:34
E. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	19:27	0:15
T. Willander	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	-1	0	17:04	0:02
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	12:59	0:00
C. Crotty	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	12:18	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Meriläinen	31	26	5	.839	60:00	Loss
K. Lankinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

NYR

Line 1M. Zibanejad15:51A. Lafrenière13:24G. Perreault13:12

Line 2P. Dorofeyev13:17T. Kartye12:44J. Miller12:27

Line 3O. Bjorkstrand11:34W. Cuylle11:59N. Laba11:57

Line 4E. Tolvanen9:06J. Chmelar9:02G. Gawdin7:59

Pair 1V. Gavrikov16:54A. Fox18:39

Pair 2M. Pettersson18:19B. Schneider14:26

Pair 3S. Morrow15:16M. Robertson13:09

VAN

Line 1B. Boeser14:28J. DeBrusk13:23E. Pettersson14:12

Line 2L. Ohgren12:58L. Karlsson13:32M. Rossi13:07

Line 3P. Cotter12:35F. Chytil12:32J. Lekkerimäki11:45

Line 4D. O'Connor8:47M. Sasson8:41B. Gallagher7:46

Pair 1Z. Buium21:12F. Hronek18:25

Pair 2E. Pettersson16:08T. Willander16:38

Pair 3J. Oleksiak11:54C. Crotty11:12

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 15 overs hit (53%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.5	+148	-180	2	Under
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.5	+125	-145	3	Over
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.5	+140	-165	3	Over
NYR P. Dorofeyev	2.5	-160	+132	4	Over
NYR A. Fox	1.5	-120	+108	3	Over
VAN B. Boeser	1.5	-135	+110	1	Under
VAN F. Chytil	1.5	-160	+140	2	Over
VAN F. Hronek	1.5	-103	-125	1	Under
NYR G. Perreault	1.5	-144	+125	2	Over
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	1.5	-115	-105	1	Under
NYR J. Miller	1.5	-155	+135	2	Over
NYR O. Bjorkstrand	1.5	+105	-130	1	Under
NYR T. Kartye	1.5	-165	+135	1	Under
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.5	+120	-155	0	Under
NYR W. Cuylle	1.5	-152	+140	2	Over

4 of 35 overs hit (11%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
NYR A. Fox	0.5	+500	-750	0	Under
NYR A. Lafrenière	0.5	+200	-270	1	Over
VAN B. Boeser	0.5	+240	-320	0	Under
VAN B. Gallagher	0.5	+750	-1200	0	Under
NYR B. Schneider	0.5	+1500	-2500	0	Under
VAN C. Crotty	0.5	+2000	-5000	0	Under
VAN D. O'Connor	0.5	+650	-1600	0	Under
VAN E. Pettersson	0.5	+1700	–	0	Under
NYR E. Tolvanen	0.5	+650	-800	0	Under
VAN F. Chytil	0.5	+350	-475	0	Under
VAN F. Hronek	0.5	+775	-1200	0	Under
NYR G. Gawdin	0.5	+850	-1600	2	Over
NYR G. Perreault	0.5	+230	-290	1	Over
NYR J. Chmelar	0.5	+750	-1200	0	Under
VAN J. DeBrusk	0.5	+230	-300	0	Under
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	0.5	+325	-400	0	Under
NYR J. Miller	0.5	+235	-300	0	Under
VAN J. Oleksiak	0.5	+1800	-5000	0	Under
VAN L. Karlsson	0.5	+475	-750	0	Under
VAN L. Ohgren	0.5	+625	-1000	0	Under
NYR M. Pettersson	0.5	+1600	-3500	0	Under
NYR M. Robertson	0.5	+1500	-3500	0	Under
VAN M. Rossi	0.5	+500	-800	0	Under
VAN M. Sasson	0.5	+800	-1600	0	Under
NYR M. Zibanejad	0.5	+180	-240	0	Under
NYR N. Laba	0.5	+600	-900	0	Under
NYR O. Bjorkstrand	0.5	+340	-475	1	Over
VAN P. Cotter	0.5	+575	-750	0	Under
NYR P. Dorofeyev	0.5	+155	-200	0	Under
NYR S. Morrow	0.5	+1600	-2800	0	Under
NYR T. Kartye	0.5	+300	-400	0	Under
VAN T. Willander	0.5	+1800	-4000	0	Under
NYR V. Gavrikov	0.5	+900	-1600	0	Under
NYR W. Cuylle	0.5	+280	-390	0	Under
VAN Z. Buium	0.5	+1300	-2500	0	Under

8 of 17 overs hit (47%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
NYR A. Fox	0.5	-175	+150	1	Over
NYR A. Lafrenière	0.5	+140	-173	1	Over
VAN B. Boeser	0.5	+165	-205	1	Over
VAN F. Chytil	0.5	+285	-335	0	Under
VAN F. Hronek	0.5	+122	-145	0	Under
NYR G. Perreault	0.5	+190	-235	1	Over
VAN J. DeBrusk	0.5	+240	-280	0	Under
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	0.5	+230	-310	0	Under
NYR J. Miller	0.5	+115	-135	2	Over
NYR M. Zibanejad	0.5	-105	-115	1	Over
NYR N. Laba	0.5	+270	-380	0	Under
NYR O. Bjorkstrand	0.5	+310	-390	0	Under
NYR P. Dorofeyev	0.5	+180	-210	0	Under
NYR T. Kartye	0.5	+200	-250	0	Under
NYR V. Gavrikov	0.5	+265	-325	1	Over
NYR W. Cuylle	0.5	+310	-375	0	Under
VAN Z. Buium	0.5	+285	-300	1	Over

9 of 17 overs hit (53%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
NYR A. Fox	0.5	-200	+180	1	Over
NYR A. Lafrenière	0.5	-160	+130	2	Over
VAN B. Boeser	0.5	-115	+105	1	Over
VAN F. Chytil	0.5	+140	-164	0	Under
VAN F. Hronek	0.5	-106	-115	0	Under
NYR G. Perreault	0.5	-118	-106	2	Over
VAN J. DeBrusk	0.5	-105	-120	0	Under
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	0.5	+120	-135	0	Under
NYR J. Miller	0.5	-170	+135	2	Over
NYR M. Zibanejad	0.5	-215	+169	1	Over
NYR N. Laba	0.5	+180	-240	0	Under
NYR O. Bjorkstrand	0.5	+146	-175	1	Over
NYR P. Dorofeyev	0.5	-155	+130	0	Under
NYR T. Kartye	0.5	+102	-124	0	Under
NYR V. Gavrikov	0.5	+190	-225	1	Over
NYR W. Cuylle	0.5	+130	-140	0	Under
VAN Z. Buium	0.5	+225	-250	1	Over

3 of 16 overs hit (19%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
NYR A. Fox	0.5	+175	-215	1	Over
NYR A. Lafrenière	0.5	+300	-325	0	Under
VAN B. Boeser	0.5	+270	-375	0	Under
VAN F. Chytil	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
VAN F. Hronek	0.5	+240	-325	0	Under
NYR G. Perreault	0.5	+380	-550	0	Under
VAN J. DeBrusk	0.5	+320	-450	0	Under
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	0.5	+260	-450	0	Under
NYR J. Miller	0.5	+310	-450	1	Over
VAN M. Rossi	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
NYR M. Zibanejad	0.5	+220	-300	0	Under
NYR O. Bjorkstrand	0.5	+500	-1600	1	Over
NYR P. Dorofeyev	0.5	+220	-295	0	Under
NYR T. Kartye	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
NYR W. Cuylle	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
VAN Z. Buium	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
VAN L. Meriläinen	24.5	-108	-115	26	Over
NYR D. Garand	20.5	-118	-105	27	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
NYR A. Fox	1.5	-105	-135	1	Under
VAN F. Hronek	1.5	-120	-115	1	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

MilestoneBrock Boeser VAN 1 point from 500Got there: 1 A, 1 SOG
MilestonePavel Dorofeyev NYR 2 goals from 100Not yet: 4 SOG
Old teamFilip Chytil VAN First game against NYR since he left (his team until Jan 2025)2 SOG
Old teamJ.T. Miller NYR Faces VAN, his team until Jan 20252 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	NYR 3.5, VAN 2.8	NYR 5, VAN 1
Total goals	6.2	6
Shots on goal	NYR 26.4, VAN 24.4	NYR 31, VAN 28
Win chance	NYR 60%	NYR won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NYR P. Dorofeyev	2.9	4	0.79	0	35%	0
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.8	3	0.69	0	32%	0
NYR M. Zibanejad	2.3	3	1.01	1	29%	0
NYR A. Lafrenière	2.1	2	0.85	2	28%	1
NYR J. Miller	2.1	2	1.03	2	29%	0
VAN B. Boeser	2.1	1	0.70	1	27%	0
NYR W. Cuylle	2.0	2	0.61	0	25%	0
NYR G. Perreault	1.9	2	0.65	2	25%	1
NYR T. Kartye	1.8	1	0.71	0	24%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.8	1	0.63	0	9%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	1.8	1	0.84	1	25%	1
NYR A. Fox	1.6	3	1.11	1	15%	0
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	1.5	1	0.49	0	18%	0
VAN L. Karlsson	1.5	3	0.47	0	18%	0
NYR O. Bjorkstrand	1.5	1	0.49	1	19%	1
VAN D. O'Connor	1.4	1	0.33	0	16%	0
NYR V. Gavrikov	1.3	0	0.41	1	8%	0
VAN B. Gallagher	1.3	1	0.28	0	13%	0
NYR B. Schneider	1.3	1	0.29	0	6%	0
VAN Z. Buium	1.3	0	0.36	1	7%	0
VAN L. Ohgren	1.2	2	0.32	0	13%	0
VAN M. Rossi	1.2	3	0.43	0	15%	0
NYR E. Tolvanen	1.1	1	0.30	0	13%	0
VAN M. Sasson	1.1	1	0.29	0	14%	0
NYR N. Laba	1.0	2	0.37	0	13%	0
VAN P. Cotter	1.0	0	0.33	0	16%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	1.0	3	0.18	0	5%	0
VAN T. Willander	1.0	3	0.28	0	5%	0
NYR S. Morrow	1.0	1	0.22	0	4%	0
NYR G. Gawdin	0.9	2	0.13	2	6%	2
NYR M. Robertson	0.8	1	0.22	0	4%	0
NYR J. Chmelar	0.8	1	0.22	1	10%	0
VAN J. Oleksiak	0.8	2	0.18	0	4%	0
NYR M. Pettersson	0.8	2	0.34	0	5%	0
VAN C. Crotty	0.6	0	0.10	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.