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Game Recap
OTT2
FinalSat, Oct 11, 2025Every game that night
FLA6

FLA beat OTT 6-2, and the chances backed it up: 2.98 expected goals to 1.59. S. Pinto led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). S. Pinto had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. S. Bobrovsky stopped 26 of 28.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
OTT1012
FLA2226
  1. 1st 6:08FLAB. Marchand0.04 xG
  2. 1st 9:54FLAE. Rodrigues0.02 xG
  3. 1st 17:33OTTS. Pinto0.20 xG
  4. 2nd 0:35FLAA. EkbladPP0.04 xG
  5. 2nd 18:28FLAA. LundellPP0.10 xG
  6. 3rd 5:29FLAM. SamoskevichPP0.20 xG
  7. 3rd 11:14FLAS. Reinhart0.19 xG
  8. 3rd 17:35OTTS. Pinto0.08 xG

Team Stats

OTTFLA
28Shots on goal27
1.59Expected goals2.98
48Shot attempts54
235v5 shots on goal19
0/2Power play3/5
27Hits28
17Blocked shots7
10Penalty minutes4
22Giveaways16
13Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

OTT 1.59 xGFLA 2.98 xGGoal

00.511.522.531st2nd3rdFLA goal, 6:08FLA goal, 9:54OTT goal, 17:33FLA goal, 0:35FLA goal, 18:28FLA goal, 5:29FLA goal, 11:14OTT goal, 17:35

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

OTT28 on goal, 2 scored
FLA27 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

OTT Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
S. PintoC202501+1016:212:45
R. GreigC0110000214:371:15
C. GirouxRW0112000013:281:15
T. StützleC000231-1018:502:45
D. CozensC0004500017:232:45
F. ZetterlundLW0002300017:161:15
B. TkachukLW0003100216:342:45
M. AmadioRW000000-1215:090:00
D. PerronLW0000100015:081:12
L. EllerC000030-1012:350:00
N. CousinsC000021-1011:040:00
K. MacDermidLW000112006:470:00
J. SandersonD000300-1022:252:45
A. ZubD000234-2020:570:00
T. ChabotD0001020420:411:15
N. JensenD000241+1019:060:03
N. MatinpaloD0000150016:450:00
D. SebrangoD0001000016:090:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
L. Ullmark27216.77859:59Loss
L. Meriläinen000–0:00

FLA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
B. MarchandLW1122100016:575:12
A. LundellC112201+1016:293:16
S. ReinhartC101310+1019:195:18
E. RodriguesC101300+2016:113:25
C. VerhaegheC0112000014:553:12
M. SamoskevichRW101220+1212:472:49
S. BennettC000220-2216:475:17
E. LuostarinenC000110+1015:310:00
L. KuninC0002120015:070:17
J. BoqvistC0002400012:230:12
A. GreerLW000050-1012:070:05
J. GadjovichLW0000500010:170:05
A. EkbladD112220+1022:555:19
S. JonesD022210-1020:455:40
G. ForslingD022002+1019:530:14
J. PetryD011111+1018:452:58
U. BalinskisD000010+1017:400:08
N. MikkolaD000111-1017:120:23
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Bobrovsky28262.92960:00Win
D. Tarasov000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

OTT

Line 1F. Zetterlund14:37B. Tkachuk13:48T. Stützle13:06
Line 2D. Perron13:55D. Cozens14:22M. Amadio14:28
Line 3L. Eller10:53N. Cousins11:04K. MacDermid6:47
Line 4C. Giroux9:17R. Greig10:16S. Pinto9:08
Pair 1N. Jensen16:11T. Chabot17:43
Pair 2D. Sebrango16:04N. Matinpalo15:24
Pair 3A. Zub14:52J. Sanderson14:10

FLA

Line 1S. Reinhart13:32E. Luostarinen13:44A. Lundell11:55
Line 2A. Greer11:42L. Kunin12:37J. Gadjovich10:12
Line 3C. Verhaeghe11:42S. Bennett11:29B. Marchand11:19
Line 4E. Rodrigues12:17J. Boqvist11:13M. Samoskevich9:58
Pair 1J. Petry15:26U. Balinskis17:11
Pair 2A. Ekblad15:20G. Forsling17:16
Pair 3S. Jones13:46N. Mikkola15:26

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

  • Old teamBrady Tkachuk FLA Faces OTT, his team until Apr 20263 SOG
  • Old teamLars Eller FLA Faces OTT, his team until Apr 20260 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreOTT 2.6, FLA 3.2OTT 2, FLA 6
Total goals5.88
Shots on goalOTT 25.4, FLA 30.4OTT 28, FLA 27
Win chanceFLA 62%FLA won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
OTT B. Tkachuk3.430.67028%0
FLA S. Bennett3.320.75031%0
FLA S. Reinhart3.031.00140%1
FLA C. Verhaeghe2.820.76130%0
FLA B. Marchand2.620.80229%1
OTT J. Sanderson2.430.5308%0
OTT T. Chabot2.210.49010%0
FLA A. Lundell2.120.58219%1
FLA G. Forsling2.100.40211%0
FLA A. Ekblad2.020.57212%1
OTT D. Cozens2.040.50019%0
FLA E. Rodrigues2.030.48117%1
FLA M. Samoskevich1.920.42116%1
OTT T. Stützle1.920.73023%0
FLA S. Jones1.820.49211%0
OTT S. Pinto1.850.49222%2
OTT F. Zetterlund1.720.33015%0
OTT R. Greig1.500.37115%0
OTT D. Perron1.500.40018%0
FLA E. Luostarinen1.410.44015%0
OTT C. Giroux1.320.48117%0
FLA N. Mikkola1.310.2406%0
OTT M. Amadio1.300.37018%0
FLA L. Kunin1.120.19011%0
OTT A. Zub1.120.2505%0
FLA U. Balinskis1.000.1905%0
OTT N. Jensen1.020.2204%0
OTT N. Matinpalo1.000.1003%0
OTT N. Cousins1.000.1908%0
OTT L. Eller0.900.1809%0
FLA J. Boqvist0.920.28013%0
FLA J. Petry0.910.2714%0
FLA A. Greer0.900.1908%0
FLA J. Gadjovich0.800.1307%0
OTT K. MacDermid0.310.0603%0

Shots on goal: 24 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.