Game Recap: SEA 0, BOS 2, November 3, 2024

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Game Recap

SEA0

FinalSun, Nov 3, 2024Every game that night

BOS2

BOS beat SEA 2-0, and the chances backed it up: 5.19 expected goals to 1.85. BOS outshot SEA 33 to 23. C. McAvoy had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. J. Swayman stopped 23 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SEA	0	0	0	0
BOS	2	0	0	2

1st 3:23BOSJ. Brazeau0.05 xG
1st 9:57BOSC. CoylePP0.14 xG

Team Stats

SEABOS

23Shots on goal33

1.85Expected goals5.19

66Shot attempts68

175v5 shots on goal23

0/3Power play1/5

18Hits15

15Blocked shots27

15Penalty minutes11

19Giveaways16

4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SEA 1.85 xGBOS 5.19 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SEA23 on goal, 0 scored

BOS33 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Stephenson	C	0	0	2	0	0	21:20	2:11
J. McCann	LW	1	0	0	0	0	18:28	3:45
Y. Gourde	C	4	4	2	0	0	18:05	0:00
J. Schwartz	LW	1	1	0	0	0	17:44	2:25
M. Beniers	C	1	0	1	0	0	15:57	3:49
J. Eberle	RW	0	0	0	0	2	15:22	3:35
A. Burakovsky	LW	1	1	1	0	0	15:11	2:15
E. Tolvanen	RW	1	5	0	0	0	14:55	3:14
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	2	0	0	0	2	14:54	0:45
B. Tanev	LW	1	0	0	-1	0	12:16	0:00
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	-1	0	11:55	1:40
T. Kartye	LW	2	1	0	-1	0	7:35	0:00
R. Evans	D	1	0	1	0	2	25:29	3:51
B. Montour	D	5	2	1	-1	2	24:30	2:30
J. Oleksiak	D	0	1	3	-1	0	20:29	0:00
A. Larsson	D	1	2	2	0	7	17:09	0:00
W. Borgen	D	1	1	2	0	0	13:56	0:00
J. Mahura	D	1	0	0	0	0	8:37	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Daccord	33	31	2	.939	56:31	Loss
P. Grubauer	0	0	0	–	0:00

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Marchand	LW	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	22:17	6:22
E. Lindholm	C	0	1	1	1	0	3	0	0	21:12	6:14
C. Coyle	C	1	0	1	4	2	2	+1	0	20:59	5:41
J. Brazeau	RW	1	0	1	2	1	1	+1	0	14:20	3:14
P. Zacha	C	0	0	0	3	0	2	+1	0	17:46	3:24
D. Pastrnak	RW	0	0	0	7	0	1	0	0	14:21	6:16
M. Geekie	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	13:53	3:54
T. Frederic	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	7	13:17	2:48
M. Kastelic	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	11:57	0:00
J. Beecher	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	11:22	0:00
M. Poitras	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:02	0:00
C. Koepke	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	10:44	0:00
C. McAvoy	D	0	1	1	7	0	3	+1	0	23:58	6:17
N. Zadorov	D	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	17:31	0:00
H. Lindholm	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	22:31	3:54
B. Carlo	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	20:35	0:01
A. Peeke	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	2	13:23	0:00
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:15	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Swayman	23	23	0	1.000	59:37	Win
J. Korpisalo	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamMorgan Geekie BOS Faces SEA, his team until May 20232 SOG
HometownJoey Daccord SEA Plays in his hometown31 saves on 33
HometownMatty Beniers SEA Plays near home (born in Hingham)1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SEA 2.6, BOS 3.0	SEA 0, BOS 2
Total goals	5.7	2
Shots on goal	SEA 27.3, BOS 27.0	SEA 23, BOS 33
Win chance	BOS 57%	BOS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.8	7	1.07	0	41%	0
SEA J. McCann	2.6	1	0.73	0	28%	0
SEA B. Montour	2.3	5	0.50	0	13%	0
BOS B. Marchand	2.2	1	0.80	1	27%	0
SEA J. Eberle	1.9	0	0.53	0	20%	0
SEA O. Bjorkstrand	1.9	2	0.48	0	18%	0
BOS E. Lindholm	1.9	1	0.63	1	24%	0
BOS P. Zacha	1.8	3	0.63	0	21%	0
SEA J. Schwartz	1.8	1	0.44	0	18%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.7	1	0.49	0	18%	0
SEA A. Burakovsky	1.6	1	0.44	0	15%	0
BOS J. Brazeau	1.6	2	0.39	1	20%	1
BOS C. Coyle	1.5	4	0.55	1	20%	1
BOS C. McAvoy	1.5	7	0.53	1	11%	0
SEA Y. Gourde	1.5	4	0.38	0	13%	0
BOS T. Frederic	1.5	1	0.41	0	18%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.5	1	0.36	0	16%	0
BOS H. Lindholm	1.4	1	0.35	0	7%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.3	1	0.22	0	6%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.3	1	0.30	1	10%	0
BOS M. Geekie	1.3	2	0.38	0	15%	0
SEA R. Evans	1.3	1	0.31	0	7%	0
SEA B. Tanev	1.3	1	0.28	0	13%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	1.3	0	0.32	0	15%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.3	0	0.64	0	18%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	1.3	0	0.21	0	5%	0
BOS C. Koepke	1.2	2	0.32	0	12%	0
SEA T. Kartye	1.2	2	0.21	0	11%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.1	0	0.30	0	15%	0
BOS M. Poitras	1.0	1	0.40	0	13%	0
SEA W. Borgen	1.0	1	0.21	0	4%	0
BOS B. Carlo	1.0	0	0.19	0	6%	0
BOS A. Peeke	0.9	0	0.17	0	4%	0
BOS J. Beecher	0.9	0	0.28	0	14%	0
SEA J. Mahura	0.8	1	0.17	0	3%	0
BOS P. Wotherspoon	0.8	0	0.17	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.