Game Recap: SEA 2, BOS 4, January 15, 2026

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Game Recap

SEA2

FinalThu, Jan 15, 2026Every game that night

BOS4

BOS beat SEA 4-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.52 expected goals to 3.33. C. McAvoy led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). J. Swayman stopped 26 of 28.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SEA	1	1	0	2
BOS	2	1	1	4

1st 0:54BOSM. Khusnutdinov0.23 xG
1st 3:45BOSV. Arvidsson0.03 xG
1st 7:29SEAC. StephensonPP0.12 xG
2nd 4:40BOSM. KastelicSH0.12 xG
2nd 12:27SEAE. TolvanenPP0.27 xG
3rd 19:45BOSD. PastrnakEN0.49 xG

Team Stats

SEABOS

28Shots on goal24

3.33Expected goals2.52

60Shot attempts46

185v5 shots on goal18

2/4Power play1/2

22Hits25

14Blocked shots16

9Penalty minutes13

13Giveaways16

5Takeaways9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SEA 3.33 xGBOS 2.52 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SEA26 on goal, 2 scored

BOS22 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Stephenson	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	-2	0	19:22	2:54
E. Tolvanen	RW	1	0	1	3	6	0	-1	0	16:53	3:12
K. Kakko	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	15:19	3:11
J. McCann	LW	0	1	1	3	0	0	-1	0	15:12	2:47
M. Beniers	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	2	20:23	2:57
J. Eberle	RW	0	0	0	1	1	2	-2	0	19:21	2:47
J. Schwartz	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	15:30	3:05
F. Gaudreau	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	15:09	0:00
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:25	3:02
B. Meyers	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	12:35	0:00
B. Catton	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:28	0:00
R. Winterton	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	5	10:05	0:00
V. Dunn	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	-1	0	25:47	2:48
B. Montour	D	0	1	1	4	3	0	0	2	25:03	3:12
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	20:18	0:00
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	18:25	0:00
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-2	0	14:14	0:00
C. Fleury	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-2	0	10:25	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Daccord	23	20	3	.870	57:17	Loss
P. Grubauer	0	0	0	–	0:00

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Pastrnak	RW	1	0	1	4	0	0	+1	0	19:23	2:18
M. Geekie	C	0	1	1	3	3	0	0	0	16:50	2:16
P. Zacha	C	0	1	1	0	0	1	+1	0	16:22	1:30
V. Arvidsson	LW	1	0	1	3	0	1	+1	0	14:44	0:31
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	14:09	0:33
M. Khusnutdinov	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	13:28	0:00
M. Kastelic	C	1	0	1	3	2	2	+1	0	12:41	0:00
E. Lindholm	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	19:13	2:18
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:12	0:00
F. Minten	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	12:33	0:31
T. Jeannot	LW	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	2	11:33	0:00
A. Steeves	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	7	9:28	0:24
C. McAvoy	D	0	2	2	0	4	3	+3	0	28:00	2:16
N. Zadorov	D	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	2	26:29	0:49
H. Jokiharju	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	20:38	0:06
M. Lohrei	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	19:13	0:33
J. Aspirot	D	0	0	0	1	3	3	+2	2	18:51	0:00
A. Peeke	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	5:14	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Swayman	28	26	2	.929	60:00	Win
J. Korpisalo	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SEA

Line 1J. Eberle13:51M. Beniers15:15K. Kakko11:37

Line 2J. Schwartz12:25E. Tolvanen12:04C. Stephenson13:17

Line 3F. Gaudreau13:58B. Meyers11:54R. Winterton10:05

Line 4S. Wright10:23B. Catton12:28J. McCann9:54

Pair 1A. Larsson18:42V. Dunn20:05

Pair 2J. Oleksiak17:51B. Montour19:07

Pair 3R. Lindgren12:47C. Fleury9:52

BOS

Line 1E. Lindholm14:30D. Pastrnak16:30M. Khusnutdinov11:57

Line 2V. Arvidsson12:43C. Mittelstadt12:49P. Zacha12:42

Line 3S. Kuraly11:36M. Kastelic10:25T. Jeannot10:30

Line 4M. Geekie13:47F. Minten10:32A. Steeves9:04

Pair 1N. Zadorov21:11H. Jokiharju18:43

Pair 2C. McAvoy20:00J. Aspirot16:06

Pair 3M. Lohrei17:44A. Peeke4:46

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownJoey Daccord SEA Plays in his hometown20 saves on 23
HometownMatty Beniers SEA Plays near home (born in Hingham)1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SEA 2.8, BOS 3.5	SEA 2, BOS 4
Total goals	6.3	6
Shots on goal	SEA 25.9, BOS 29.9	SEA 28, BOS 24
Win chance	BOS 62%	BOS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.7	4	1.30	1	43%	1
BOS V. Arvidsson	2.6	3	0.61	1	23%	1
SEA J. McCann	2.4	3	0.68	1	27%	0
SEA B. Montour	2.1	4	0.42	1	12%	0
SEA J. Eberle	2.1	1	0.58	0	22%	0
SEA J. Schwartz	2.0	1	0.47	0	21%	0
BOS M. Geekie	2.0	3	0.71	1	29%	0
SEA V. Dunn	1.9	1	0.55	1	10%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.9	1	0.55	0	21%	0
BOS E. Lindholm	1.9	0	0.65	0	23%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.8	3	0.48	1	20%	1
BOS C. McAvoy	1.7	0	0.60	2	9%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.6	1	0.45	1	16%	0
BOS F. Minten	1.5	0	0.48	0	21%	0
BOS P. Zacha	1.5	0	0.61	1	20%	0
BOS S. Kuraly	1.5	1	0.31	0	13%	0
BOS A. Steeves	1.4	1	0.43	0	18%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.4	0	0.34	0	8%	0
SEA B. Catton	1.4	0	0.30	0	13%	0
SEA F. Gaudreau	1.3	1	0.39	0	16%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.3	1	0.40	0	17%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	1.3	3	0.28	1	13%	1
SEA C. Stephenson	1.3	2	0.62	1	19%	1
BOS C. Mittelstadt	1.3	2	0.54	1	19%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.3	2	0.29	0	7%	0
SEA C. Fleury	1.2	1	0.13	0	4%	0
SEA B. Meyers	1.2	1	0.21	0	11%	0
BOS T. Jeannot	1.2	1	0.32	0	13%	0
BOS H. Jokiharju	1.1	0	0.24	0	4%	0
BOS A. Peeke	1.1	0	0.20	0	4%	0
BOS M. Lohrei	1.1	3	0.38	0	6%	0
BOS M. Khusnutdinov	1.1	2	0.40	1	16%	1
SEA R. Winterton	1.0	1	0.19	0	7%	0
SEA R. Lindgren	0.9	2	0.23	0	4%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	0.8	0	0.18	0	4%	0
BOS J. Aspirot	0.8	1	0.16	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.