Game Recap: SEA 4, CAR 2, December 3, 2024

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Game Recap

SEA4

FinalTue, Dec 3, 2024Every game that night

CAR2

SEA beat CAR 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 2.80 expected goals to 1.75. SEA outshot CAR 28 to 19. J. Schwartz led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. McCann had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. J. Daccord stopped 17 of 19.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SEA	1	1	2	4
CAR	1	0	1	2

1st 0:19SEAJ. Schwartz0.19 xG
1st 4:56CARE. Robinson0.16 xG
2nd 5:56SEAE. Tolvanen0.20 xG
3rd 5:43CARM. NecasPP0.18 xG
3rd 10:48SEAY. Gourde0.24 xG
3rd 15:03SEAB. Tanev0.15 xG

Team Stats

SEACAR

28Shots on goal19

2.80Expected goals1.75

48Shot attempts59

245v5 shots on goal12

0/2Power play1/1

15Hits26

25Blocked shots11

2Penalty minutes4

17Giveaways16

2Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SEA 2.80 xGCAR 1.75 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SEA28 on goal, 4 scored

CAR19 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Beniers	C	0	2	2	2	0	1	+3	0	19:22	2:28
J. Schwartz	LW	1	1	2	5	0	1	+2	0	18:36	1:31
Y. Gourde	C	1	1	2	1	0	2	+2	0	18:35	0:51
B. Tanev	LW	1	0	1	1	2	3	+1	0	16:59	0:01
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	14:15	2:28
E. Tolvanen	RW	1	0	1	3	3	2	0	0	12:42	1:21
R. Winterton	C	0	1	1	0	1	1	+1	0	10:40	0:00
C. Stephenson	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	0	18:54	2:38
J. McCann	LW	0	0	0	6	0	2	0	0	18:38	2:36
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	14:59	1:14
T. Kartye	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	10:19	0:01
M. Stephens	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	9:00	0:17
V. Dunn	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+3	0	22:00	2:45
B. Montour	D	0	1	1	0	2	1	+1	0	20:24	1:31
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	+2	0	24:11	0:00
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	22:12	0:18
J. Mahura	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	2	14:01	0:00
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:24	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Daccord	19	17	2	.895	60:00	Win
P. Grubauer	0	0	0	–	0:00

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Necas	C	1	1	2	1	0	1	0	0	17:55	0:49
S. Aho	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	-2	2	18:26	0:49
E. Robinson	LW	1	0	1	4	3	0	0	2	14:24	0:00
S. Jarvis	RW	0	0	0	3	4	0	0	0	20:17	0:49
J. Martinook	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	18:20	0:00
J. Staal	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	17:09	0:00
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-3	0	15:17	0:49
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	14:55	0:00
J. Roslovic	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-3	0	12:26	0:00
J. Kotkaniemi	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	10:18	0:00
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	10:12	0:00
J. Blake	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	9:53	0:00
S. Gostisbehere	D	0	1	1	3	1	2	0	0	18:52	0:49
D. Orlov	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	23:09	0:00
J. Slavin	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	20:55	0:00
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	-1	0	20:09	0:00
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	19:56	0:00
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	16:12	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Kochetkov	28	24	4	.857	57:15	Loss
S. Martin	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SEA 2.6, CAR 3.4	SEA 4, CAR 2
Total goals	5.9	6
Shots on goal	SEA 25.1, CAR 32.3	SEA 28, CAR 19
Win chance	CAR 63%	SEA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CAR M. Necas	2.7	1	0.90	2	27%	1
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.6	0	0.83	0	27%	0
SEA J. McCann	2.6	6	0.79	0	30%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.5	1	1.04	1	34%	0
SEA B. Montour	2.2	0	0.49	1	13%	0
CAR S. Jarvis	2.1	3	0.77	0	28%	0
CAR B. Burns	2.0	1	0.45	0	11%	0
SEA J. Schwartz	1.9	5	0.51	2	20%	1
SEA O. Bjorkstrand	1.9	2	0.57	1	20%	0
CAR J. Drury	1.7	1	0.41	0	13%	0
CAR S. Gostisbehere	1.7	3	0.59	1	12%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.6	2	0.46	0	17%	0
CAR J. Roslovic	1.6	1	0.50	0	18%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.6	2	0.48	2	18%	0
CAR D. Orlov	1.5	1	0.42	0	9%	0
CAR J. Blake	1.5	1	0.37	0	17%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.4	0	0.37	0	7%	0
CAR S. Walker	1.4	0	0.22	0	7%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.4	0	0.38	0	15%	0
SEA V. Dunn	1.4	1	0.50	1	10%	0
SEA Y. Gourde	1.4	1	0.42	2	14%	1
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.4	0	0.37	0	14%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.4	0	0.30	0	16%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.3	3	0.36	1	16%	1
CAR J. Chatfield	1.3	0	0.29	0	9%	0
SEA B. Tanev	1.2	1	0.31	1	14%	1
SEA A. Larsson	1.1	2	0.18	0	5%	0
CAR E. Robinson	1.1	4	0.36	1	13%	1
SEA C. Stephenson	1.1	1	0.63	0	18%	0
SEA T. Kartye	1.0	0	0.21	0	11%	0
SEA R. Winterton	0.9	0	0.11	1	7%	0
SEA S. Wright	0.9	1	0.35	0	16%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	0.8	0	0.17	0	4%	0
SEA J. Mahura	0.7	1	0.15	0	3%	0
SEA W. Borgen	0.7	0	0.15	0	3%	0
SEA M. Stephens	0.5	2	0.15	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.