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Game Recap
SEA2
CAR3
CAR beat SEA 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.32 expected goals to 1.95. CAR outshot SEA 36 to 12. J. Staal led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). S. Gostisbehere had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. B. Bussi stopped 10 of 12.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| CAR | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
- 1st 3:23CARL. Stankoven0.24 xG
- 1st 14:13SEAM. Beniers0.23 xG
- 3rd 5:56SEAB. Catton0.27 xG
- 3rd 10:37CARJ. Martinook0.19 xG
- 3rd 13:50CARW. Carrier0.10 xG
Team Stats
SEACAR
12Shots on goal36
1.95Expected goals3.32
42Shot attempts65
125v5 shots on goal35
0/1Power play0/1
25Hits16
12Blocked shots13
2Penalty minutes2
18Giveaways13
7Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SEA 1.95 xGCAR 3.32 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Beniers | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:54 | 1:04 |
| B. Catton | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:27 | 0:58 |
| R. Winterton | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:26 | 0:00 |
| J. Schwartz | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 18:14 | 0:57 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:02 | 0:52 |
| J. McCann | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:39 | 1:02 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:52 | 1:07 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:14 | 0:53 |
| B. Meyers | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:52 | 0:00 |
| S. Wright | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:27 | 0:56 |
| T. Kartye | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:13 | 0:00 |
| J. Melanson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:06 | 0:00 |
| V. Dunn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 24:54 | 1:13 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 24:45 | 0:11 |
| C. Fleury | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:33 | 0:00 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 16:45 | 0:00 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:22 | 0:00 |
| R. Evans | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:41 | 0:47 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Daccord | 36 | 33 | 3 | .917 | 58:34 | Loss |
| P. Grubauer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:41 | 0:46 |
| S. Jarvis | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:55 | 1:55 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 16:35 | 0:00 |
| L. Stankoven | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:30 | 0:02 |
| W. Carrier | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 10:17 | 0:00 |
| S. Aho | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:59 | 1:58 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:59 | 2:00 |
| N. Ehlers | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:17 | 1:14 |
| T. Hall | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:05 | 0:00 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:59 | 0:00 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:25 | 0:00 |
| M. Jankowski | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:48 | 0:00 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:23 | 0:00 |
| J. Slavin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:35 | 0:03 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 21:03 | 0:00 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:42 | 0:05 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:40 | 1:57 |
| A. Nikishin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 16:07 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Bussi | 12 | 10 | 2 | .833 | 60:00 | Win |
| F. Andersen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
SEA
Line 1M. Beniers17:01J. McCann15:26K. Kakko15:45
Line 2J. Schwartz14:52F. Gaudreau15:13E. Tolvanen13:37
Line 3R. Winterton12:26S. Wright12:17B. Catton12:06
Line 4T. Kartye11:13B. Meyers12:48J. Melanson11:06
Pair 1A. Larsson23:11V. Dunn22:15
Pair 2C. Fleury17:35R. Lindgren15:34
Pair 3J. Oleksiak15:31R. Evans14:54
CAR
Line 1S. Aho15:25A. Svechnikov14:44N. Ehlers15:17
Line 2J. Martinook15:34S. Jarvis15:13J. Staal15:53
Line 3T. Hall14:05L. Stankoven14:28J. Blake12:59
Line 4W. Carrier10:17E. Robinson10:34M. Jankowski8:48
Pair 2J. Slavin17:28J. Chatfield18:36
Pair 3S. Gostisbehere16:43A. Nikishin15:28
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SEA 2.7, CAR 3.5 | SEA 2, CAR 3 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | SEA 23.0, CAR 33.0 | SEA 12, CAR 36 |
| Win chance | CAR 63% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR S. Jarvis | 3.0 | 1 | 0.88 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.6 | 3 | 0.78 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| CAR N. Ehlers | 2.6 | 4 | 0.82 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| CAR S. Aho | 2.4 | 2 | 0.92 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 2.2 | 4 | 0.29 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SEA J. McCann | 2.2 | 0 | 0.68 | 0 | 26% | 0 |
| CAR L. Stankoven | 2.1 | 2 | 0.49 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| CAR J. Blake | 2.1 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 1.9 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CAR T. Hall | 1.9 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.9 | 7 | 0.70 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.8 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.7 | 2 | 0.54 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| SEA V. Dunn | 1.6 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR K. Miller | 1.5 | 1 | 0.42 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.5 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.5 | 1 | 0.45 | 2 | 18% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.5 | 0 | 0.31 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SEA K. Kakko | 1.4 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.4 | 4 | 0.41 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| CAR A. Nikishin | 1.4 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CAR W. Carrier | 1.4 | 2 | 0.26 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| SEA F. Gaudreau | 1.3 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.3 | 0 | 0.43 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SEA B. Catton | 1.2 | 3 | 0.29 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| SEA B. Meyers | 1.1 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CAR M. Jankowski | 1.1 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SEA C. Fleury | 1.0 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| SEA R. Winterton | 1.0 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| SEA J. Melanson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SEA T. Kartye | 0.8 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 0.7 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SEA R. Lindgren | 0.7 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| SEA R. Evans | 0.6 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.