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Game Recap
SEA3
CGY2
SEA beat CGY 3-2 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 2.95 expected goals to 1.86. A. Burakovsky led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Daccord stopped 27 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| CGY | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
- 2nd 2:22CGYM. Frost0.09 xG
- 3rd 6:37CGYN. Kadri0.10 xG
- 3rd 13:12SEAS. Wright0.33 xG
- 3rd 15:19SEAA. Burakovsky0.09 xG
- OT 2:58SEAM. BeniersPP0.05 xG
Team Stats
SEACGY
28Shots on goal29
2.95Expected goals1.86
63Shot attempts63
215v5 shots on goal27
1/4Power play0/2
23Hits17
24Blocked shots17
6Penalty minutes10
9Giveaways14
7Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SEA 2.95 xGCGY 1.86 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Wright | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:05 | 1:57 |
| A. Burakovsky | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:51 | 2:14 |
| M. Beniers | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:53 | 2:02 |
| C. Stephenson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:27 | 4:06 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:08 | 2:27 |
| J. Schwartz | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:26 | 2:39 |
| J. McCann | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:00 | 3:48 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:22 | 2:25 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 14:28 | 0:12 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:52 | 0:13 |
| M. Stephens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:04 | 0:04 |
| T. Kartye | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 7:49 | 0:00 |
| V. Dunn | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 29:18 | 4:31 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 26:37 | 0:00 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 0 | 22:08 | 0:04 |
| J. Mahura | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 19:30 | 0:00 |
| C. Fleury | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 16:24 | 0:16 |
| B. Montour | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:49 | 1:20 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Daccord | 29 | 27 | 2 | .931 | 62:58 | Win |
| A. Stezka | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:27 | 2:36 |
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:19 | 0:54 |
| N. Kadri | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:50 | 1:23 |
| M. Frost | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 15:22 | 1:26 |
| M. Backlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 20:37 | 2:40 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:31 | 2:41 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:00 | 1:22 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:31 | 2:26 |
| D. Hunt | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:33 | 0:21 |
| K. Rooney | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9:07 | 0:00 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:55 | 0:00 |
| M. Pospisil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7:15 | 0:03 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 25:24 | 1:31 |
| D. Miromanov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 19:07 | 0:08 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 24:57 | 2:29 |
| I. Solovyov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:24 | 0:00 |
| J. Bean | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:58 | 0:00 |
| B. Pachal | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:37 | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SEA 2.8, CGY 3.0 | SEA 3, CGY 2 |
| Total goals | 5.7 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | SEA 26.4, CGY 30.4 | SEA 28, CGY 29 |
| Win chance | CGY 54% | SEA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.7 | 3 | 0.96 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.6 | 3 | 0.63 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.6 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.5 | 2 | 0.63 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.4 | 2 | 0.58 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 2.4 | 4 | 0.64 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.2 | 4 | 0.49 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 2.2 | 1 | 0.92 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| SEA J. McCann | 2.2 | 3 | 0.72 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| SEA V. Dunn | 2.2 | 1 | 0.65 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| CGY M. Frost | 2.0 | 2 | 0.58 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 1.9 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.9 | 2 | 0.61 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| CGY J. Farabee | 1.9 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| SEA O. Bjorkstrand | 1.9 | 1 | 0.59 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 1.9 | 2 | 0.57 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| SEA K. Kakko | 1.8 | 3 | 0.58 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.8 | 3 | 0.48 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| SEA A. Burakovsky | 1.6 | 1 | 0.45 | 2 | 16% | 1 |
| CGY M. Pospisil | 1.4 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.4 | 0 | 0.24 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| CGY D. Miromanov | 1.3 | 2 | 0.22 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.73 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| CGY J. Bean | 1.2 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.2 | 1 | 0.56 | 2 | 20% | 1 |
| SEA B. Tanev | 1.1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CGY I. Solovyov | 1.1 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY D. Hunt | 1.1 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 1.0 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 0.9 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SEA J. Mahura | 0.9 | 3 | 0.17 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 0.9 | 2 | 0.13 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SEA T. Kartye | 0.7 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SEA C. Fleury | 0.7 | 2 | 0.09 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| SEA M. Stephens | 0.7 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CGY K. Rooney | 0.7 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.