Game Recap: SEA 3, CGY 4 (OT), March 25, 2025

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Game Recap

SEA3

Final/OTTue, Mar 25, 2025Every game that night

CGY4

CGY beat SEA 4-3 in overtime despite fewer good chances: 3.22 expected goals to 3.97. CGY outshot SEA 37 to 29. N. Kadri led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). N. Kadri had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.4. D. Wolf stopped 26 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
SEA	0	2	1	0	3
CGY	1	0	2	1	4

1st 10:58CGYA. Klapka0.19 xG
2nd 10:25SEAJ. SchwartzPP0.25 xG
2nd 18:42SEAT. Kartye0.15 xG
3rd 13:42CGYN. KadriPP0.08 xG
3rd 15:49CGYR. Andersson0.02 xG
3rd 18:30SEAJ. Eberle0.72 xG
OT 3:58CGYN. Kadri0.19 xG

Team Stats

SEACGY

29Shots on goal37

3.97Expected goals3.22

56Shot attempts81

195v5 shots on goal27

1/4Power play1/3

23Hits27

26Blocked shots12

13Penalty minutes13

16Giveaways15

4Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SEA 3.97 xGCGY 3.22 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SEA29 on goal, 3 scored

CGY37 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Schwartz	LW	1	1	2	5	1	0	+1	0	17:27	4:07
M. Beniers	C	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	22:34	3:41
J. Eberle	RW	1	0	1	1	1	1	-1	0	20:19	3:33
J. McCann	LW	0	1	1	3	0	1	-1	0	19:06	4:03
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	18:24	4:03
T. Kartye	LW	1	0	1	1	0	1	+1	0	7:50	0:00
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	0	0	1	5	2	0	0	18:50	0:00
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	18:19	3:52
K. Kakko	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17:01	3:35
J. Nyman	RW	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	14:26	3:44
M. Eyssimont	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	2	9:20	0:00
J. Hayden	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	8:06	0:01
V. Dunn	D	0	1	1	3	0	2	+1	0	24:21	4:29
B. Montour	D	0	0	0	2	1	6	0	11	22:27	3:12
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	21:59	0:05
R. Evans	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	20:53	0:00
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	-2	0	16:00	0:00
C. Fleury	D	0	0	0	1	3	2	-1	0	10:56	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Daccord	37	33	4	.892	62:17	OT loss
P. Grubauer	0	0	0	–	0:00

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Huberdeau	LW	0	2	2	2	0	0	0	0	24:02	3:41
N. Kadri	C	2	0	2	7	1	0	+1	5	20:31	3:45
M. Coronato	RW	0	2	2	2	1	1	0	2	20:14	3:21
M. Frost	C	0	1	1	3	2	1	-1	0	19:46	3:45
K. Rooney	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	9:50	0:00
A. Klapka	RW	1	0	1	2	5	1	+1	0	6:25	0:00
B. Coleman	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	18:03	1:31
C. Zary	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	16:39	1:36
J. Farabee	LW	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	16:02	1:40
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	15:10	1:47
M. Pospisil	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	12:34	0:00
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	6:31	0:00
R. Andersson	D	1	0	1	5	0	3	-1	0	25:04	1:49
D. Miromanov	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	12:33	0:00
M. Weegar	D	0	0	0	2	5	2	+1	0	26:32	3:30
K. Bahl	D	0	0	0	3	3	0	-1	0	21:24	0:00
J. Hanley	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	2	20:42	0:00
J. Bean	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	12:53	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Wolf	29	26	3	.897	63:17	Win
D. Vladar	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

HometownRyker Evans SEA Plays in his hometown0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SEA 3.1, CGY 3.2	SEA 3, CGY 4
Total goals	6.3	7
Shots on goal	SEA 27.6, CGY 29.6	SEA 29, CGY 37
Win chance	CGY 52%	CGY won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CGY N. Kadri	3.4	7	0.96	2	33%	2
CGY M. Coronato	2.4	2	0.62	2	25%	0
SEA B. Montour	2.3	2	0.49	0	12%	0
CGY M. Weegar	2.2	2	0.65	0	13%	0
SEA J. McCann	2.2	3	0.66	1	26%	0
CGY B. Coleman	2.1	2	0.55	0	23%	0
CGY J. Huberdeau	2.0	2	0.92	2	27%	0
SEA J. Schwartz	2.0	5	0.52	2	22%	1
CGY M. Frost	2.0	3	0.62	1	21%	0
SEA V. Dunn	1.9	3	0.60	1	11%	0
CGY C. Zary	1.9	2	0.57	0	22%	0
CGY R. Andersson	1.8	5	0.49	1	11%	1
SEA M. Beniers	1.7	2	0.58	1	23%	0
SEA J. Eberle	1.7	1	0.60	1	21%	1
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.7	1	0.48	0	21%	0
SEA J. Nyman	1.7	3	0.48	0	17%	0
CGY J. Farabee	1.7	2	0.44	0	18%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	1.6	1	0.52	0	23%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.6	0	0.52	0	20%	0
CGY M. Pospisil	1.5	0	0.42	0	12%	0
SEA M. Eyssimont	1.5	3	0.20	0	9%	0
SEA A. Burakovsky	1.3	1	0.41	1	15%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.3	1	0.63	0	23%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.3	1	0.28	0	6%	0
CGY D. Miromanov	1.1	0	0.22	1	6%	0
CGY K. Bahl	1.0	3	0.27	0	5%	0
CGY J. Bean	0.9	1	0.19	0	5%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	0.9	0	0.20	0	4%	0
SEA J. Hayden	0.9	1	0.11	0	7%	0
CGY A. Klapka	0.9	2	0.13	1	9%	1
SEA C. Fleury	0.8	1	0.09	0	2%	0
SEA T. Kartye	0.8	1	0.16	1	9%	1
CGY R. Lomberg	0.8	0	0.13	0	7%	0
SEA R. Evans	0.8	0	0.27	0	4%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.7	2	0.19	0	4%	0
CGY K. Rooney	0.7	1	0.13	1	7%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.