Game Recap: SEA 2, CGY 4, December 18, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

SEA2

FinalThu, Dec 18, 2025Every game that night

CGY4

CGY beat SEA 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.54 expected goals to 1.96. CGY outshot SEA 46 to 23. R. Andersson led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). M. Weegar had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.4. D. Wolf stopped 21 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SEA	0	2	0	2
CGY	0	1	3	4

2nd 7:52SEAC. Stephenson0.21 xG
2nd 10:20CGYM. Backlund0.21 xG
2nd 17:16SEAK. KakkoPP0.11 xG
3rd 10:04CGYN. KadriPP0.09 xG
3rd 11:19CGYM. Coronato0.04 xG
3rd 19:52CGYM. BacklundEN0.93 xG

Team Stats

SEACGY

23Shots on goal46

1.96Expected goals3.54

42Shot attempts75

215v5 shots on goal32

1/1Power play1/5

24Hits22

14Blocked shots14

10Penalty minutes2

12Giveaways8

6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SEA 1.96 xGCGY 3.54 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SEA23 on goal, 2 scored

CGY45 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	1	1	1	2	2	-1	2	17:11	1:04
C. Stephenson	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	-1	2	16:53	1:05
F. Gaudreau	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	16:18	0:00
K. Kakko	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	-1	0	12:20	0:28
J. Nyman	RW	0	1	1	1	0	1	-1	0	11:55	0:30
M. Beniers	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	19:37	1:07
J. Eberle	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	18:00	1:04
M. Marchment	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	16:53	0:27
B. Meyers	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	14:34	0:00
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	13:04	0:29
J. Melanson	RW	0	0	0	2	7	0	0	0	9:39	0:00
T. Kartye	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	9:17	0:00
R. Evans	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	-1	2	14:23	0:30
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	1	4	2	+1	0	22:06	0:00
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	21:59	0:00
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-1	2	21:36	0:00
V. Dunn	D	0	0	0	4	0	2	-2	2	21:33	1:06
J. Mahura	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	-1	0	15:27	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Daccord	45	42	3	.933	57:47	Loss
P. Grubauer	0	0	0	–	0:00

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Kadri	C	1	1	2	5	1	1	+1	0	22:02	5:21
M. Backlund	C	2	0	2	4	0	0	+2	0	16:34	0:00
J. Huberdeau	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	2	19:13	5:37
J. Farabee	LW	0	1	1	1	1	3	+1	0	17:05	0:02
M. Coronato	RW	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	16:27	4:44
M. Frost	C	0	1	1	4	1	0	0	0	14:53	4:37
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	0	0	5	2	0	0	0	20:58	4:49
B. Coleman	LW	0	0	0	3	3	1	+1	0	18:21	3:42
C. Zary	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	14:24	3:50
A. Klapka	RW	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	11:17	4:44
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:18	0:00
J. Beecher	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	7:50	0:00
R. Andersson	D	0	3	3	3	0	1	+3	0	25:11	5:52
J. Hanley	D	0	1	1	4	0	1	+1	0	10:40	0:00
M. Weegar	D	0	0	0	6	3	3	-1	0	23:11	3:39
K. Bahl	D	0	0	0	2	3	1	+2	0	21:56	0:15
Y. Kuznetsov	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	18:50	0:08
H. Brzustewicz	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:22	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Wolf	23	21	2	.913	59:54	Win
D. Cooley	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SEA

Line 1J. Eberle15:07M. Marchment14:47M. Beniers14:54

Line 2S. Wright11:56K. Kakko11:12J. Nyman10:48

Line 3F. Gaudreau11:10E. Tolvanen10:26C. Stephenson10:07

Line 4T. Kartye9:17J. Melanson9:39B. Meyers10:19

Pair 1A. Larsson17:09V. Dunn18:14

Pair 2J. Oleksiak17:31R. Lindgren15:54

Pair 3J. Mahura11:41R. Evans13:04

CGY

Line 1N. Kadri15:49Y. Sharangovich15:40J. Farabee15:07

Line 2M. Backlund13:48B. Coleman12:31C. Zary10:34

Line 3M. Frost10:16M. Coronato11:43J. Huberdeau12:13

Line 4R. Lomberg8:12J. Beecher7:19A. Klapka6:33

Pair 1M. Weegar17:54Y. Kuznetsov17:48

Pair 2K. Bahl18:42R. Andersson17:04

Pair 3J. Hanley10:40H. Brzustewicz11:22

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownRyker Evans SEA Plays in his hometown1 A, 0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SEA 2.7, CGY 2.9	SEA 2, CGY 4
Total goals	5.6	6
Shots on goal	SEA 25.9, CGY 30.1	SEA 23, CGY 46
Win chance	CGY 55%	CGY won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CGY N. Kadri	3.3	5	0.93	2	31%	1
CGY M. Coronato	2.4	2	0.59	1	23%	1
CGY M. Weegar	2.4	6	0.51	0	10%	0
CGY B. Coleman	2.3	3	0.56	0	24%	0
SEA J. Eberle	2.3	0	0.66	0	24%	0
CGY R. Andersson	2.3	3	0.53	3	12%	0
CGY M. Backlund	2.1	4	0.50	2	18%	2
SEA V. Dunn	2.1	4	0.59	0	12%	0
SEA M. Marchment	2.0	0	0.55	0	22%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	2.0	1	0.52	1	22%	0
CGY J. Farabee	2.0	1	0.44	1	19%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.9	1	0.58	0	22%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	1.9	5	0.58	0	25%	0
CGY M. Frost	1.8	4	0.56	1	19%	0
CGY J. Huberdeau	1.8	2	0.78	1	24%	0
CGY C. Zary	1.7	1	0.46	0	19%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.5	1	0.66	1	20%	1
SEA J. Nyman	1.4	1	0.26	1	14%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.4	1	0.46	0	19%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.4	2	0.38	1	15%	1
SEA F. Gaudreau	1.2	1	0.35	1	16%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.2	0	0.27	0	6%	0
CGY A. Klapka	1.1	0	0.25	0	12%	0
CGY Y. Kuznetsov	1.1	1	0.28	0	7%	0
CGY K. Bahl	1.0	2	0.22	0	4%	0
CGY R. Lomberg	0.9	0	0.14	0	7%	0
SEA B. Meyers	0.9	2	0.16	0	9%	0
SEA T. Kartye	0.8	2	0.20	0	10%	0
SEA J. Mahura	0.8	2	0.17	0	3%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	0.8	1	0.16	0	4%	0
SEA R. Lindgren	0.8	2	0.21	0	3%	0
SEA R. Evans	0.7	0	0.23	1	4%	0
CGY J. Beecher	0.7	2	0.14	0	7%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.6	4	0.12	1	2%	0

Shots on goal: 17 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.