Game Recap: SEA 5, CGY 1, January 5, 2026

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Game Recap

SEA5

FinalMon, Jan 5, 2026Every game that night

CGY1

SEA beat CGY 5-1, with the chances close: 4.12 expected goals to 4.10. CGY outshot SEA 42 to 28. M. Backlund had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. P. Grubauer stopped 41 of 42.

Team Stats

SEACGY

28Shots on goal42

4.12Expected goals4.10

48Shot attempts77

265v5 shots on goal35

0/1Power play0/1

20Hits35

14Blocked shots12

2Penalty minutes2

16Giveaways20

2Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SEA 4.12 xGCGY 4.10 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SEA27 on goal, 4 scored

CGY42 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Stephenson	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	2	17:50	1:18
F. Gaudreau	C	1	0	1	2	2	0	+1	0	17:20	0:00
S. Wright	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	16:46	0:42
J. McCann	LW	0	1	1	3	0	1	+1	0	15:32	0:42
K. Kakko	RW	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	15:15	0:42
M. Beniers	C	1	0	1	3	3	1	+2	0	14:46	1:18
B. Meyers	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	13:51	0:00
J. Melanson	RW	1	0	1	1	5	0	+1	0	11:14	0:00
R. Winterton	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	10:23	0:00
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	0	0	2	2	1	+1	0	17:10	1:18
B. Catton	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	15:37	0:42
J. Eberle	RW	0	0	0	2	1	1	+2	0	14:04	1:18
A. Larsson	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	+3	0	20:56	0:00
V. Dunn	D	1	0	1	1	0	2	+2	0	18:40	1:18
C. Fleury	D	0	0	0	2	3	2	0	0	20:41	0:00
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	20:07	0:00
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	+1	0	20:00	0:00
R. Evans	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	17:48	0:42

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Grubauer	42	41	1	.976	60:00	Win
J. Daccord	0	0	0	–	0:00

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Lomberg	LW	0	1	1	1	2	0	-1	0	10:06	0:00
A. Klapka	RW	1	0	1	3	5	1	-1	0	9:56	0:00
N. Kadri	C	0	0	0	4	2	1	-2	0	21:21	1:26
C. Zary	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	18:44	0:37
J. Farabee	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	17:15	0:00
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	0	0	5	1	1	-2	0	16:40	0:38
M. Backlund	C	0	0	0	7	0	0	-1	0	16:39	0:36
J. Huberdeau	LW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-2	0	16:38	1:24
B. Coleman	LW	0	0	0	5	2	0	-1	0	16:20	0:34
M. Coronato	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	0	15:52	1:23
M. Frost	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	15:22	1:22
J. Kirkland	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	8:47	0:00
M. Weegar	D	0	1	1	0	3	2	-1	0	21:49	0:29
R. Andersson	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	0	23:19	1:31
K. Bahl	D	0	0	0	3	3	1	0	0	23:15	0:00
Y. Kuznetsov	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	-1	0	20:01	0:00
B. Pachal	D	0	0	0	1	9	0	-2	0	13:57	0:00
J. Hanley	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	13:49	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Wolf	27	23	4	.852	58:10	Loss
O. Say	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SEA

Line 1C. Stephenson15:13F. Gaudreau14:41E. Tolvanen14:15

Line 2S. Wright16:04B. Catton14:55J. McCann14:50

Line 3J. Eberle12:12M. Beniers12:20K. Kakko13:44

Line 4B. Meyers12:27J. Melanson11:14R. Winterton10:23

Pair 1C. Fleury20:06R. Lindgren17:43

Pair 2J. Oleksiak18:36R. Evans16:51

Pair 3A. Larsson17:54V. Dunn17:22

CGY

Line 1C. Zary17:50N. Kadri18:28J. Farabee16:45

Line 2J. Huberdeau13:23Y. Sharangovich14:54M. Frost12:58

Line 3M. Backlund13:43B. Coleman13:40M. Coronato13:20

Line 4J. Kirkland8:47R. Lomberg10:06A. Klapka8:51

Pair 1M. Weegar20:47Y. Kuznetsov20:01

Pair 2K. Bahl21:15R. Andersson18:46

Pair 3J. Hanley13:34B. Pachal13:42

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownRyker Evans SEA Plays in his hometown0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SEA 2.8, CGY 3.0	SEA 5, CGY 1
Total goals	5.8	6
Shots on goal	SEA 26.3, CGY 30.4	SEA 28, CGY 42
Win chance	CGY 54%	SEA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CGY N. Kadri	3.1	4	0.86	0	30%	0
CGY B. Coleman	2.4	5	0.59	0	25%	0
CGY R. Andersson	2.3	2	0.54	0	12%	0
CGY M. Weegar	2.3	0	0.48	1	9%	0
CGY M. Backlund	2.3	7	0.53	0	19%	0
SEA J. McCann	2.2	3	0.63	1	25%	0
CGY M. Coronato	2.2	1	0.57	0	22%	0
SEA J. Eberle	2.1	2	0.59	0	22%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	2.1	2	0.56	0	23%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	2.0	5	0.55	0	25%	0
SEA V. Dunn	1.9	1	0.52	1	11%	1
CGY J. Farabee	1.8	0	0.41	0	18%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.8	3	0.53	1	20%	1
CGY M. Frost	1.8	2	0.48	0	17%	0
CGY J. Huberdeau	1.7	4	0.74	0	23%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.5	3	0.43	1	16%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.4	2	0.45	1	18%	1
CGY C. Zary	1.4	1	0.40	0	17%	0
CGY A. Klapka	1.3	3	0.31	1	14%	1
SEA F. Gaudreau	1.3	2	0.37	1	17%	1
SEA C. Stephenson	1.3	1	0.61	1	19%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.3	1	0.27	1	6%	0
SEA B. Catton	1.2	2	0.27	0	10%	0
SEA B. Meyers	1.2	1	0.19	1	11%	0
SEA C. Fleury	1.2	2	0.13	0	4%	0
SEA R. Winterton	1.1	1	0.18	1	8%	0
CGY Y. Kuznetsov	1.0	2	0.31	0	8%	0
CGY K. Bahl	1.0	3	0.22	0	4%	0
CGY R. Lomberg	1.0	1	0.16	1	8%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	0.9	1	0.19	0	4%	0
SEA J. Melanson	0.9	1	0.27	1	8%	1
SEA R. Lindgren	0.8	0	0.22	0	4%	0
SEA R. Evans	0.8	0	0.30	0	6%	0
CGY B. Pachal	0.7	1	0.15	0	3%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.6	1	0.13	0	2%	0
CGY J. Kirkland	0.6	0	0.24	0	8%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.