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Game Recap
SEA6
FinalThu, Oct 1, 2026Every game that night
CGY1

SEA beat CGY 6-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.01 expected goals to 2.41. V. Dunn led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). R. Strome had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. J. Daccord stopped 24 of 25.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
SEA3036
CGY0011
  1. 1st 9:10SEAJ. EberlePP0.33 xG
  2. 1st 9:42SEAV. Dunn0.01 xG
  3. 1st 19:30SEAF. Gaudreau0.09 xG
  4. 3rd 3:13SEAC. Stephenson0.16 xG
  5. 3rd 4:04SEAM. Beniers0.09 xG
  6. 3rd 16:35CGYR. Strome0.05 xG
  7. 3rd 17:01SEAK. Kakko0.18 xG

Team Stats

SEACGY
32Shots on goal25
4.01Expected goals2.41
58Shot attempts63
255v5 shots on goal23
1/5Power play0/1
20Hits24
20Blocked shots9
4Penalty minutes12
14Giveaways17
8Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SEA 4.01 xGCGY 2.41 xGGoal

012341st2nd3rdSEA goal, 9:10SEA goal, 9:42SEA goal, 19:30SEA goal, 3:13SEA goal, 4:04CGY goal, 16:35SEA goal, 17:01

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SEA31 on goal, 6 scored
CGY24 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SEA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
J. McCannLW033400+2017:545:12
M. BeniersC112122+2016:583:17
K. KakkoRW112101+3016:493:18
J. EberleRW101400+1017:524:32
C. StephensonC101200+1016:594:05
R. WintertonC011301+1016:170:00
S. WrightC0112110015:552:47
F. GaudreauC1012120013:580:00
B. CattonC000100+1019:004:03
B. McMannC000310+1016:053:25
J. MelansonRW000121029:310:05
C. DouglasC000040005:580:00
V. DunnD123221+1020:374:19
R. EvansD011111+2020:420:20
B. MontourD000402+2024:113:57
A. LarssonD0001520018:480:00
R. LindgrenD000002+2014:280:00
J. MahuraD000014+1214:280:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Daccord25241.96059:30Win
P. Grubauer000–0:00

CGY Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
Y. SharangovichC011120-1017:140:52
R. StromeC101401-1016:010:45
C. ZaryC011100-1013:190:52
J. FarabeeLW000112-2417:111:08
M. BacklundC000110-1017:070:00
S. HonzekLW000241-1015:320:00
M. CoronatoRW000100-2013:341:09
M. FrostC000200-2012:481:10
M. PospisilC0002400212:400:00
M. TsyplakovRW0001000012:280:51
M. GridinRW000000-1212:101:08
A. KlapkaRW0000400211:290:00
S. NemecD000401-1021:180:43
K. BahlD0001010221:070:00
J. MiddletonD000230-2020:550:00
Z. WhitecloudD000021-1019:140:00
Y. KuznetsovD000121-1018:100:05
Z. ParekhD000111-3017:471:17
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Wolf32266.81359:50Loss
D. Cooley000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SEA

Line 1R. Winterton15:42B. Catton14:57S. Wright13:08
Line 2K. Kakko13:31M. Beniers12:32J. McCann10:42
Line 3C. Stephenson11:54B. McMann12:10J. Eberle12:40
Line 4F. Gaudreau12:24J. Melanson8:47C. Douglas5:58
Pair 1R. Evans18:24B. Montour18:13
Pair 2A. Larsson17:24V. Dunn16:18
Pair 3R. Lindgren12:58J. Mahura14:18

CGY

Line 1R. Strome13:35Y. Sharangovich13:07C. Zary12:17
Line 2M. Backlund12:40S. Honzek12:06J. Farabee12:49
Line 3M. Frost11:24M. Coronato12:13M. Gridin11:02
Line 4A. Klapka11:29M. Tsyplakov11:37M. Pospisil10:48
Pair 1K. Bahl16:45S. Nemec18:34
Pair 2J. Middleton15:34Z. Parekh16:29
Pair 3Z. Whitecloud14:53Y. Kuznetsov14:38

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

6 of 17 overs hit (35%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
SEA B. McMann2.5-114-1053Over
SEA B. Montour2.5-125+1154Over
CGY M. Coronato2.5+100-1251Under
CGY M. Frost2.5+130-1652Under
CGY M. Gridin2.5+105-1200Under
SEA V. Dunn2.5+120-1522Under
SEA A. Larsson1.5-110-1101Under
CGY C. Zary1.5-120-1051Under
SEA J. Eberle1.5-160+1464Over
CGY J. Farabee1.5-150+1261Under
SEA J. McCann1.5-180+1404Over
CGY M. Backlund1.5-180+1461Under
SEA M. Beniers1.5-160+1251Under
SEA R. Winterton1.5+105-1343Over
CGY S. Nemec1.5+100-1154Over
CGY Y. Sharangovich1.5-137+1201Under
CGY Z. Parekh1.5-113-1101Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

  • HometownRyker Evans SEA Plays in his hometown1 A, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreSEA 3.0, CGY 3.0SEA 6, CGY 1
Total goals6.07
Shots on goalSEA 27.5, CGY 29.3SEA 32, CGY 25
Win chanceCGY 51%SEA won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
SEA B. McMann2.630.55026%0
SEA B. Montour2.540.44012%0
CGY M. Coronato2.510.59022%0
CGY M. Backlund2.210.49018%0
SEA J. McCann2.240.64325%0
CGY M. Gridin2.100.61018%0
CGY J. Farabee1.910.49021%0
CGY M. Frost1.920.57020%0
SEA J. Eberle1.940.59121%1
SEA V. Dunn1.920.47310%1
SEA M. Beniers1.710.51220%1
CGY Z. Parekh1.710.32010%0
CGY Y. Sharangovich1.610.41119%0
SEA R. Winterton1.630.2718%0
CGY S. Nemec1.540.35010%0
CGY C. Zary1.510.38116%0
SEA A. Larsson1.410.2806%0
SEA B. Catton1.310.27011%0
CGY R. Strome1.340.43113%1
CGY S. Honzek1.220.23012%0
SEA K. Kakko1.210.48215%1
SEA F. Gaudreau1.220.35114%1
CGY Y. Kuznetsov1.210.2106%0
CGY A. Klapka1.100.27011%0
SEA S. Wright1.120.36115%0
SEA C. Stephenson1.120.57117%1
CGY Z. Whitecloud1.100.2605%0
CGY M. Pospisil1.020.2307%0
SEA J. Mahura0.900.1903%0
CGY M. Tsyplakov0.910.2007%0
SEA C. Douglas0.900.1406%0
CGY J. Middleton0.920.2205%0
SEA J. Melanson0.810.1307%0
SEA R. Evans0.810.2617%0
CGY K. Bahl0.710.2003%0
SEA R. Lindgren0.700.1703%0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.