Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
SEA2
FinalFri, Oct 30, 2026Every game that night
CGY6

CGY beat SEA 6-2, with the chances close: 2.20 expected goals to 2.24. M. Coronato led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). M. Gridin had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. D. Wolf stopped 20 of 22.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
SEA1102
CGY1326
  1. 1st 2:32CGYM. FrostPP0.10 xG
  2. 1st 11:34SEAF. Gaudreau0.76 xG
  3. 2nd 5:45CGYA. Suniev0.16 xG
  4. 2nd 8:43CGYM. GridinPP0.07 xG
  5. 2nd 10:40CGYJ. Farabee0.17 xG
  6. 2nd 18:15SEAM. SamoskevichPP0.10 xG
  7. 3rd 0:39CGYM. Coronato0.06 xG
  8. 3rd 18:14CGYR. Strome0.19 xG

Team Stats

SEACGY
22Shots on goal27
2.24Expected goals2.20
42Shot attempts52
195v5 shots on goal22
1/4Power play2/2
17Hits31
14Blocked shots10
9Penalty minutes13
13Giveaways11
4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SEA 2.24 xGCGY 2.20 xGGoal

00.511.522.51st2nd3rdCGY goal, 2:32SEA goal, 11:34CGY goal, 5:45CGY goal, 8:43CGY goal, 10:40SEA goal, 18:15CGY goal, 0:39CGY goal, 18:14

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SEA22 on goal, 2 scored
CGY26 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SEA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. SamoskevichRW112412-2018:543:24
F. GaudreauC101211-2017:560:00
B. CattonC011102-1217:263:52
K. KakkoRW011002-1016:253:47
C. StephensonC011010-2015:472:46
B. McMannC0003100018:293:04
S. WrightC000210-1017:183:52
M. BeniersC0001010016:013:09
J. EberleRW0002000015:463:00
B. MeyersC0000200013:310:00
R. WintertonC0001100012:200:00
C. DouglasC000001074:290:00
B. MontourD000222-1024:433:59
R. EvansD000112-1021:260:22
V. DunnD000001-2019:362:52
A. LarssonD000130-1017:180:08
J. MahuraD0000300015:510:00
C. FleuryD000200-1014:410:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
P. Grubauer14104.71430:40Loss
J. Daccord13112.84629:20

CGY Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. CoronatoRW134100+2013:282:03
J. FarabeeLW123111+1015:182:03
M. FrostC112120+1016:552:03
M. GridinRW112501+1016:182:03
M. BacklundC011100+2017:510:00
R. StromeC1012000014:380:00
A. SunievLW101220+1214:140:00
M. PospisilC0111830013:260:00
Y. SharangovichC000101+1017:130:00
M. TsyplakovRW0002100012:250:00
A. KlapkaRW0001400511:530:00
J. CastagnaC0002400211:090:00
Z. WhitecloudD011011-1019:210:00
S. NemecD000310+3021:280:00
K. BahlD000010+1221:080:00
J. MiddletonD000031-1020:030:00
Y. KuznetsovD000132+3019:490:00
Z. ParekhD000300+1216:322:03
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Wolf22202.90960:00Win
A. Sergeev000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SEA

Line 1S. Wright13:26B. Catton13:34K. Kakko12:38
Line 2F. Gaudreau16:05M. Samoskevich15:30C. Stephenson13:01
Line 3J. Eberle12:32M. Beniers12:39B. McMann15:25
Line 4R. Winterton11:48B. Meyers12:14C. Douglas4:29
Pair 1B. Montour18:54R. Evans19:14
Pair 2A. Larsson16:57V. Dunn16:32
Pair 3J. Mahura15:51C. Fleury14:41

CGY

Line 1A. Suniev14:14M. Frost14:44Y. Sharangovich13:24
Line 2R. Strome14:38M. Gridin14:15M. Pospisil11:17
Line 3M. Tsyplakov12:25A. Klapka11:53J. Castagna10:40
Line 4J. Farabee10:19M. Coronato11:25M. Backlund13:42
Pair 1J. Middleton16:03Z. Whitecloud15:37
Pair 2S. Nemec20:30Y. Kuznetsov16:56
Pair 3K. Bahl18:59Z. Parekh14:29

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

9 of 22 overs hit (41%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
SEA B. McMann2.5+105-1203Over
SEA B. Montour2.5+105-1252Under
CGY J. Farabee2.5+134-1651Under
CGY M. Backlund2.5+136-1551Under
CGY M. Coronato2.5-118+1001Under
CGY M. Gridin2.5+130-1555Over
SEA V. Dunn2.5+145-1600Under
CGY A. Klapka1.5+120-1651Under
SEA A. Larsson1.5+135-1551Under
CGY A. Suniev1.5-130+1002Over
SEA B. Catton1.5-115-1151Under
SEA J. Eberle1.5-146+1252Over
SEA M. Beniers1.5-140+1101Under
CGY M. Frost1.5-130+1051Under
CGY M. Pospisil1.5+115-1501Under
SEA M. Samoskevich1.5-155+1304Over
CGY R. Strome1.5-113-1152Over
SEA R. Winterton1.5+100-1301Under
CGY S. Nemec1.5-125-1053Over
SEA S. Wright1.5+115-1402Over
CGY Y. Sharangovich1.5-130+1001Under
CGY Z. Parekh1.5-110+1003Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreSEA 3.1, CGY 3.2SEA 2, CGY 6
Total goals6.38
Shots on goalSEA 27.1, CGY 30.2SEA 22, CGY 27
Win chanceCGY 51%CGY won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
SEA B. McMann2.730.61028%0
SEA B. Montour2.720.56015%0
CGY M. Coronato2.610.69424%1
CGY M. Backlund2.310.52121%0
CGY M. Gridin2.250.70223%1
CGY J. Farabee2.210.68326%1
SEA V. Dunn2.200.58012%0
SEA J. Eberle2.020.63023%0
SEA M. Samoskevich2.040.47218%1
CGY M. Frost1.710.53219%1
SEA M. Beniers1.710.60023%0
CGY M. Pospisil1.710.38112%0
CGY A. Suniev1.720.36115%1
CGY R. Strome1.720.52117%1
CGY S. Nemec1.630.40010%0
CGY Y. Sharangovich1.610.43021%0
SEA B. Catton1.610.45117%0
CGY Z. Parekh1.630.3208%0
SEA R. Winterton1.510.30010%0
SEA S. Wright1.420.44018%0
CGY A. Klapka1.310.33014%0
SEA A. Larsson1.310.2907%0
SEA K. Kakko1.200.54117%0
SEA F. Gaudreau1.220.41117%1
SEA B. Meyers1.100.29012%0
CGY M. Tsyplakov1.120.2609%0
CGY J. Middleton1.100.2506%0
CGY Y. Kuznetsov1.010.1904%0
CGY Z. Whitecloud1.000.2415%0
CGY J. Castagna1.020.29013%0
SEA C. Stephenson1.000.61118%0
CGY K. Bahl0.900.2705%0
SEA R. Evans0.910.3409%0
SEA C. Fleury0.820.1002%0
SEA J. Mahura0.800.1703%0

Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.