Game Recap: SEA 1, CHI 3, December 19, 2024

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Game Recap

SEA1

FinalThu, Dec 19, 2024Every game that night

CHI3

CHI beat SEA 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 2.96 expected goals to 2.02. I. Mikheyev led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). N. Foligno had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. A. Soderblom stopped 26 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SEA	0	0	1	1
CHI	0	1	2	3

2nd 10:54CHII. Mikheyev0.12 xG
3rd 6:06CHII. Mikheyev0.07 xG
3rd 11:26SEAR. Evans0.11 xG
3rd 15:11CHIN. Allan0.14 xG

Team Stats

SEACHI

27Shots on goal24

2.02Expected goals2.96

59Shot attempts44

215v5 shots on goal20

0/3Power play0/2

26Hits19

4Blocked shots10

8Penalty minutes10

7Giveaways9

2Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SEA 2.02 xGCHI 2.96 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SEA27 on goal, 1 scored

CHI24 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	1	1	3	2	0	-1	0	17:38	2:43
C. Stephenson	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	20:23	2:45
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	17:07	1:07
J. McCann	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	17:05	2:44
M. Beniers	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	16:55	2:48
J. Schwartz	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	16:52	1:18
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	14:24	1:24
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	0	0	3	3	0	-1	0	13:29	0:00
K. Kakko	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	13:15	1:15
Y. Gourde	C	0	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	12:39	0:00
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	12:20	0:07
D. Sprong	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	10:54	0:00
B. Montour	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	26:27	2:34
R. Evans	D	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	17:35	0:23
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	23:39	0:07
V. Dunn	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	4	22:57	1:05
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	15:44	0:15
J. Mahura	D	0	0	0	1	4	0	-1	2	10:08	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Daccord	24	21	3	.875	56:29	Loss
P. Grubauer	0	0	0	–	0:00

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
I. Mikheyev	RW	2	0	2	4	1	0	+2	0	16:10	0:00
T. Teravainen	C	0	2	2	1	0	1	+2	0	15:38	1:24
R. Donato	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	17:01	0:37
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	15:55	1:30
C. Bedard	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	19:59	1:26
J. Dickinson	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	+2	0	17:37	0:00
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	4	1	1	0	0	16:40	0:00
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	15:13	0:43
F. Nazar	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	12:42	1:31
L. Reichel	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:49	0:41
P. Maroon	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	10:16	0:36
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6:53	0:00
C. Murphy	D	0	1	1	2	5	1	+2	4	20:52	0:00
N. Allan	D	1	0	1	1	1	0	+2	0	19:44	0:10
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	26:59	1:57
L. Crevier	D	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	4	17:45	0:00
T. Brodie	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	17:28	0:00
K. Korchinski	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	15:19	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Soderblom	27	26	1	.963	60:00	Win
P. Mrazek	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamRyan Donato CHI Faces SEA, his team until May 20231 A, 1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SEA 3.1, CHI 2.6	SEA 1, CHI 3
Total goals	5.7	4
Shots on goal	SEA 28.2, CHI 26.3	SEA 27, CHI 24
Win chance	SEA 57%	CHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
SEA J. McCann	2.9	2	0.90	0	35%	0
CHI C. Bedard	2.4	1	0.83	0	24%	0
SEA B. Montour	2.4	2	0.58	1	13%	0
CHI R. Donato	2.3	1	0.53	1	22%	0
SEA J. Schwartz	2.2	1	0.60	0	24%	0
SEA O. Bjorkstrand	2.1	3	0.69	1	25%	0
SEA D. Sprong	2.0	0	0.52	0	22%	0
CHI T. Hall	1.9	3	0.56	0	21%	0
SEA V. Dunn	1.8	2	0.67	0	12%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.8	2	0.58	1	24%	0
SEA A. Burakovsky	1.8	2	0.56	0	20%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.8	1	0.60	0	22%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.7	3	0.47	0	20%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.6	1	0.61	2	21%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.5	4	0.38	2	17%	2
SEA B. Tanev	1.5	2	0.40	0	18%	0
SEA Y. Gourde	1.5	0	0.49	0	17%	0
CHI N. Foligno	1.4	4	0.44	0	17%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.4	2	0.37	0	16%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.3	1	0.33	0	5%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.3	2	0.79	0	22%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.3	0	0.23	0	5%	0
CHI C. Murphy	1.2	2	0.25	1	7%	0
CHI J. Dickinson	1.2	0	0.38	0	17%	0
CHI L. Reichel	1.2	0	0.30	0	11%	0
CHI F. Nazar	1.1	0	0.33	0	16%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.1	2	0.53	0	22%	0
CHI K. Korchinski	1.0	1	0.17	0	6%	0
SEA R. Evans	1.0	2	0.35	1	5%	1
SEA J. Oleksiak	1.0	0	0.21	0	5%	0
CHI J. Anderson	0.9	0	0.24	0	10%	0
CHI P. Maroon	0.8	2	0.25	0	9%	0
SEA J. Mahura	0.8	1	0.19	0	3%	0
CHI L. Crevier	0.8	1	0.15	0	4%	0
CHI T. Brodie	0.6	0	0.23	0	3%	0
CHI N. Allan	0.5	1	0.21	1	3%	1

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.