Game Recap: SEA 3, COL 6, November 5, 2024

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Game Recap

SEA3

FinalTue, Nov 5, 2024Every game that night

COL6

COL beat SEA 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.12 expected goals to 1.66. COL outshot SEA 32 to 20. N. MacKinnon led the way with 5 points (0 G, 5 A). J. Annunen stopped 17 of 20.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SEA	1	1	1	3
COL	2	2	2	6

1st 2:28COLC. Wagner0.02 xG
1st 12:58SEAJ. Schwartz0.19 xG
1st 14:12COLI. Ivan0.11 xG
2nd 0:23SEAJ. McCannPP0.27 xG
2nd 6:44COLA. LehkonenPP0.21 xG
2nd 9:11COLM. RantanenPP0.11 xG
3rd 17:31SEAM. Beniers0.06 xG
3rd 17:55COLM. RantanenEN0.66 xG
3rd 19:58COLN. KovalenkoPP0.13 xG

Team Stats

SEACOL

20Shots on goal32

1.66Expected goals4.12

55Shot attempts72

145v5 shots on goal18

1/3Power play3/5

22Hits20

21Blocked shots22

18Penalty minutes6

17Giveaways18

5Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SEA 1.66 xGCOL 4.12 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SEA19 on goal, 3 scored

COL31 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. McCann	LW	1	1	2	2	1	3	+1	0	19:57	2:35
M. Beniers	C	1	1	2	2	0	1	+2	0	17:13	1:38
C. Stephenson	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	2	21:02	2:17
J. Schwartz	LW	1	0	1	3	1	0	+2	0	18:20	1:37
J. Eberle	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	0	17:44	2:30
B. Tanev	LW	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	14:53	0:00
Y. Gourde	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	10	14:50	0:00
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	14:44	1:51
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-3	0	12:22	2:26
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-3	2	10:19	1:22
R. Winterton	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	-3	0	9:28	0:00
J. Hayden	C	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	2	8:54	0:06
B. Montour	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	2	24:17	3:32
R. Evans	D	0	1	1	2	2	1	0	0	18:20	0:52
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	22:44	0:00
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	-2	0	18:45	0:00
W. Borgen	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	18:38	0:14
C. Fleury	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	11:11	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Grubauer	31	26	5	.839	58:03	Loss
J. Daccord	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. MacKinnon	C	0	5	5	4	0	1	+3	0	24:21	6:54
M. Rantanen	RW	2	0	2	3	1	0	+1	0	23:55	6:54
A. Lehkonen	LW	1	1	2	4	0	1	0	0	22:25	6:54
N. Kovalenko	RW	1	1	2	1	0	1	0	0	11:34	0:34
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	2	19:18	6:11
I. Ivan	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	12:17	0:00
C. Wagner	RW	1	0	1	3	3	0	0	0	9:04	0:00
L. O'Connor	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	14:57	0:34
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	2	4	6	-1	0	14:09	0:00
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	2	3	2	-1	2	13:34	0:00
T. Tynan	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	7:32	0:00
N. Prishchepov	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	7:26	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	2	2	3	1	2	0	0	15:07	4:18
J. Manson	D	0	1	1	0	1	3	+3	0	20:33	0:34
S. Girard	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	+3	2	20:21	0:34
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	23:51	2:36
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-2	0	19:19	1:17
C. de Haan	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	15:17	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Annunen	20	17	3	.850	60:00	Win
A. Georgiev	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJaden Schwartz COL First game against SEA since he left (his team until Apr 2026)1 G, 3 SOG
BirthdayMatty Beniers SEA Turns 22 that day1 G, 1 A, 2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SEA 2.8, COL 3.6	SEA 3, COL 6
Total goals	6.4	9
Shots on goal	SEA 26.3, COL 31.9	SEA 20, COL 32
Win chance	COL 62%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.4	4	1.55	5	42%	0
COL M. Rantanen	3.2	3	1.30	2	41%	2
COL C. Makar	2.8	3	1.09	2	23%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	2.7	4	0.92	2	34%	1
SEA J. McCann	2.5	2	0.83	2	31%	1
SEA B. Montour	2.3	2	0.58	1	14%	0
COL C. Mittelstadt	2.1	1	0.87	1	24%	0
SEA J. Eberle	1.8	3	0.60	0	22%	0
COL D. Toews	1.7	1	0.56	0	11%	0
SEA J. Schwartz	1.7	3	0.51	1	20%	1
COL I. Ivan	1.7	1	0.38	1	16%	1
SEA M. Beniers	1.6	2	0.54	2	20%	1
SEA A. Burakovsky	1.6	2	0.51	0	17%	0
SEA Y. Gourde	1.5	0	0.45	0	15%	0
COL J. Manson	1.5	0	0.32	1	9%	0
COL L. O'Connor	1.5	1	0.39	0	15%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.4	0	0.42	0	18%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.3	2	0.23	0	11%	0
SEA R. Evans	1.3	2	0.37	1	7%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.2	1	0.24	0	6%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.2	1	0.73	1	21%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.2	2	0.32	0	6%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	1.2	0	0.24	0	5%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	1.2	2	0.25	0	12%	0
SEA B. Tanev	1.2	0	0.31	0	14%	0
COL S. Girard	1.1	2	0.37	1	6%	0
COL C. Haan	1.1	1	0.17	0	5%	0
COL N. Kovalenko	1.1	1	0.33	2	13%	1
SEA R. Winterton	1.0	1	0.14	0	9%	0
COL C. Wagner	1.0	3	0.12	1	7%	1
SEA S. Wright	1.0	0	0.33	0	16%	0
SEA W. Borgen	0.9	1	0.23	0	4%	0
SEA J. Hayden	0.8	0	0.09	0	6%	0
SEA C. Fleury	0.6	0	0.09	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.