Game Recap: SEA 2, COL 5, December 22, 2024

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Game Recap

SEA2

FinalSun, Dec 22, 2024Every game that night

COL5

COL beat SEA 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.57 expected goals to 1.60. COL outshot SEA 29 to 19. J. Kiviranta scored three for COL. C. Makar had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.0. M. Blackwood stopped 17 of 19.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SEA	1	1	0	2
COL	1	2	2	5

1st 10:05COLC. MakarPP0.04 xG
1st 17:55SEAJ. McCann0.23 xG
2nd 4:01SEAK. Kakko0.01 xG
2nd 4:12COLV. Nichushkin0.37 xG
2nd 12:01COLJ. Kiviranta0.13 xG
3rd 17:26COLJ. KivirantaEN0.55 xG
3rd 18:28COLJ. KivirantaEN0.76 xG

Team Stats

SEACOL

19Shots on goal29

1.60Expected goals3.57

47Shot attempts55

195v5 shots on goal19

0/1Power play1/4

31Hits14

18Blocked shots15

8Penalty minutes2

12Giveaways14

3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SEA 1.60 xGCOL 3.57 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SEA19 on goal, 2 scored

COL24 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
Y. Gourde	C	0	1	1	0	4	2	-1	0	17:35	0:00
S. Wright	C	0	1	1	1	2	1	-1	0	16:17	0:51
M. Beniers	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	15:51	1:01
J. McCann	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	-2	0	15:23	1:09
K. Kakko	RW	1	0	1	3	5	0	+1	0	14:41	1:01
C. Stephenson	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	18:55	0:56
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	16:39	0:59
J. Schwartz	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	15:31	0:59
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	0	0	2	4	3	0	4	14:00	0:00
T. Kartye	LW	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	11:48	0:00
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	9:39	1:04
B. Meyers	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	8:52	0:00
B. Montour	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	-2	2	22:15	1:01
R. Evans	D	0	0	0	0	4	1	-1	0	21:51	0:00
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	20:20	0:00
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	1	1	4	0	0	19:10	0:00
V. Dunn	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	2	18:01	0:59
J. Mahura	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	16:54	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Daccord	27	24	3	.889	59:42	Loss
P. Grubauer	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Kiviranta	LW	3	0	3	5	0	1	+3	0	12:52	0:00
N. MacKinnon	C	0	2	2	2	0	2	0	0	20:56	6:05
M. Rantanen	RW	0	2	2	1	1	1	+1	0	20:34	6:07
V. Nichushkin	RW	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0	22:04	5:54
P. Kelly	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	+2	0	13:42	0:00
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	19:42	0:46
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	17:37	5:41
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17:25	0:29
L. O'Connor	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	13:50	0:00
I. Ivan	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	10:24	0:42
J. Innala	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	8:45	0:00
G. Smith	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	6:13	0:00
C. Makar	D	1	2	3	7	0	2	+2	0	23:23	5:31
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	+2	0	24:21	1:08
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	21:00	0:37
C. de Haan	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	17:46	0:00
S. Malinski	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	16:29	0:00
K. Middleton	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	0	11:02	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	19	17	2	.895	59:55	Win
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamJaden Schwartz COL First game against SEA since he left (his team until Apr 2026)2 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SEA 2.7, COL 3.7	SEA 2, COL 5
Total goals	6.4	7
Shots on goal	SEA 25.9, COL 31.1	SEA 19, COL 29
Win chance	COL 65%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	3.9	2	1.54	2	40%	0
COL C. Makar	3.0	7	1.11	3	26%	1
COL M. Rantanen	2.6	1	1.27	2	39%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	2.6	4	0.95	1	37%	1
SEA J. McCann	2.5	2	0.75	1	30%	1
COL A. Lehkonen	2.3	1	0.84	0	33%	0
SEA B. Montour	2.2	1	0.53	0	13%	0
COL R. Colton	2.1	0	0.60	0	26%	0
SEA O. Bjorkstrand	2.0	2	0.64	0	23%	0
SEA J. Schwartz	1.9	2	0.51	0	21%	0
COL D. Toews	1.8	1	0.60	0	12%	0
SEA V. Dunn	1.7	0	0.61	0	11%	0
SEA A. Burakovsky	1.6	0	0.48	0	17%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.6	2	0.24	0	7%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.5	2	0.42	0	17%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.5	2	0.50	1	18%	0
COL C. Mittelstadt	1.4	0	0.68	0	19%	0
SEA Y. Gourde	1.3	0	0.42	1	15%	0
COL S. Girard	1.3	1	0.39	0	7%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.3	3	0.33	1	14%	1
COL L. O'Connor	1.2	0	0.35	0	14%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.2	1	0.21	0	5%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.1	0	0.68	0	19%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.1	2	0.25	1	11%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	1.1	5	0.24	3	11%	3
SEA S. Wright	1.0	1	0.47	1	19%	0
COL C. Haan	1.0	0	0.17	0	4%	0
SEA R. Evans	0.9	0	0.32	0	5%	0
SEA T. Kartye	0.8	1	0.19	0	10%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	0.8	1	0.18	0	4%	0
SEA J. Mahura	0.7	1	0.16	0	3%	0
COL I. Ivan	0.7	0	0.20	0	11%	0
COL K. Middleton	0.6	2	0.08	0	3%	0
COL G. Smith	0.6	0	0.11	0	5%	0
SEA B. Meyers	0.6	0	0.11	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.