COL beat SEA 2-0, and the chances backed it up: 2.97 expected goals to 0.86. COL outshot SEA 35 to 22. V. Nichushkin led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). J. Kiviranta had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. S. Wedgewood stopped 22 of 22.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| COL | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
- 2nd 17:38COLN. Blankenburg0.07 xG
- 3rd 12:19COLP. Kelly0.15 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SEA 0.86 xGCOL 2.97 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Stephenson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:16 | 1:43 |
| B. McMann | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:36 | 1:59 |
| M. Beniers | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:34 | 1:56 |
| J. Eberle | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:13 | 2:00 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:10 | 0:00 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:54 | 0:00 |
| B. Meyers | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 14:35 | 0:00 |
| R. Winterton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 13:53 | 0:08 |
| B. Catton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:31 | 1:39 |
| S. Wright | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:28 | 1:54 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:18 | 1:30 |
| J. Nyman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:09 | 1:33 |
| B. Montour | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:57 | 2:05 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 21:54 | 0:00 |
| V. Dunn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 6 | 20:36 | 1:33 |
| R. Evans | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 19:06 | 0:10 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:58 | 0:00 |
| C. Fleury | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 15:42 | 0:00 |
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Nichushkin | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 18:13 | 4:48 |
| P. Kelly | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:37 | 0:00 |
| B. Nelson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:21 | 5:01 |
| A. Lehkonen | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:40 | 4:45 |
| N. Roy | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:42 | 4:41 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:24 | 2:51 |
| R. Colton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:27 | 2:54 |
| J. Kiviranta | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:22 | 0:01 |
| L. O'Connor | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:47 | 0:01 |
| A. Barré-Boulet | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:02 | 2:36 |
| Z. Bardakov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:31 | 0:01 |
| J. Polin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:13 | 0:00 |
| C. Makar | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:22 | 4:00 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 17:14 | 0:01 |
| N. Blankenburg | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:24 | 0:00 |
| D. Toews | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:24 | 3:37 |
| S. Malinski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19:57 | 2:52 |
| B. Kulak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:20 | 0:01 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Wedgewood | 22 | 22 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| M. Blackwood | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
SEA
COL
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SEA 2.5, COL 4.1 | SEA 0, COL 2 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 2 |
| Shots on goal | SEA 23.4, COL 35.1 | SEA 22, COL 35 |
| Win chance | COL 74% | COL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL C. Makar | 2.7 | 3 | 1.09 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| COL B. Nelson | 2.4 | 1 | 0.89 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| SEA B. McMann | 2.4 | 2 | 0.48 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| COL S. Malinski | 2.4 | 4 | 0.53 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 2.1 | 2 | 0.73 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| COL B. Burns | 2.1 | 1 | 0.43 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.1 | 4 | 0.37 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| COL V. Nichushkin | 2.1 | 0 | 0.68 | 2 | 28% | 0 |
| COL D. Toews | 2.0 | 4 | 0.69 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| SEA J. Eberle | 1.8 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| COL R. Colton | 1.7 | 2 | 0.37 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.7 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| SEA V. Dunn | 1.6 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.5 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SEA R. Winterton | 1.5 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| COL B. Kulak | 1.4 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| COL P. Kelly | 1.2 | 3 | 0.36 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| COL N. Roy | 1.2 | 0 | 0.44 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| SEA B. Catton | 1.2 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| COL J. Drury | 1.2 | 2 | 0.32 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.1 | 4 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SEA J. Nyman | 1.1 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SEA K. Kakko | 1.1 | 4 | 0.40 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SEA F. Gaudreau | 1.0 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| COL L. O'Connor | 1.0 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.0 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| SEA B. Meyers | 1.0 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| COL J. Kiviranta | 0.9 | 6 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| COL N. Blankenburg | 0.9 | 3 | 0.21 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| COL A. Barré-Boulet | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| COL J. Polin | 0.7 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SEA C. Fleury | 0.7 | 0 | 0.08 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| COL Z. Bardakov | 0.6 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SEA R. Evans | 0.6 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SEA R. Lindgren | 0.6 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.