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Game Recap
SEA2
DET6
DET beat SEA 6-2, with the chances close: 2.09 expected goals to 1.74. SEA outshot DET 33 to 23. P. Kane led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). O. Bjorkstrand had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. C. Talbot stopped 31 of 33.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| DET | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
- 1st 3:22DETM. Kasper0.11 xG
- 1st 3:33DETJ. Compher0.07 xG
- 1st 6:16DETA. DeBrincatPP0.13 xG
- 1st 7:53DETP. Kane0.07 xG
- 2nd 4:17DETE. GustafssonPP0.03 xG
- 2nd 15:21DETD. LarkinPP0.28 xG
- 2nd 18:00SEAO. BjorkstrandPP0.17 xG
- 3rd 6:54SEAM. Beniers0.12 xG
Team Stats
SEADET
33Shots on goal23
1.74Expected goals2.09
50Shot attempts52
285v5 shots on goal13
1/2Power play3/5
27Hits8
16Blocked shots9
12Penalty minutes6
5Giveaways10
4Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SEA 1.74 xGDET 2.09 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Schwartz | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:20 | 1:48 |
| M. Beniers | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:10 | 1:47 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 | 15:42 | 1:54 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:30 | 1:45 |
| C. Stephenson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:03 | 1:47 |
| J. McCann | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 16:14 | 2:03 |
| A. Burakovsky | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:53 | 1:44 |
| S. Wright | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:50 | 1:47 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:44 | 0:10 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:27 | 0:00 |
| M. Stephens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:19 | 0:20 |
| T. Kartye | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 9:30 | 0:00 |
| V. Dunn | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:10 | 1:54 |
| B. Montour | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:24 | 1:57 |
| R. Evans | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 20:19 | 0:00 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 19:31 | 0:19 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:55 | 0:00 |
| J. Mahura | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:26 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Grubauer | 4 | 1 | 3 | .250 | 6:16 | Loss |
| J. Daccord | 19 | 16 | 3 | .842 | 53:44 |
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Raymond | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:15 | 4:12 |
| D. Larkin | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:02 | 3:38 |
| P. Kane | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:16 | 4:16 |
| M. Kasper | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:35 | 0:57 |
| V. Tarasenko | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:28 | 2:00 |
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:08 | 4:15 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:41 | 0:19 |
| J. Compher | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 14:19 | 1:59 |
| T. Motte | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:00 | 0:15 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:58 | 0:17 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 12:52 | 2:01 |
| J. Berggren | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:42 | 1:05 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:31 | 4:25 |
| E. Gustafsson | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:00 | 1:43 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:18 | 0:19 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:10 | 0:25 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:45 | 0:00 |
| J. Holl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:09 | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SEA 2.8, DET 3.3 | SEA 2, DET 6 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 8 |
| Shots on goal | SEA 26.3, DET 28.0 | SEA 33, DET 23 |
| Win chance | DET 58% | DET won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET D. Larkin | 2.8 | 3 | 0.98 | 2 | 34% | 1 |
| DET A. DeBrincat | 2.5 | 3 | 0.82 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| SEA J. McCann | 2.5 | 0 | 0.75 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.4 | 5 | 0.56 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.4 | 3 | 0.86 | 2 | 26% | 1 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 2.2 | 4 | 0.58 | 2 | 24% | 0 |
| SEA O. Bjorkstrand | 2.0 | 5 | 0.60 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| DET L. Raymond | 1.9 | 1 | 0.92 | 2 | 29% | 0 |
| SEA V. Dunn | 1.9 | 2 | 0.71 | 1 | 15% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.9 | 4 | 0.57 | 2 | 10% | 0 |
| DET V. Tarasenko | 1.8 | 0 | 0.59 | 2 | 23% | 0 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.8 | 1 | 0.54 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| SEA K. Kakko | 1.7 | 0 | 0.46 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| SEA A. Burakovsky | 1.6 | 3 | 0.48 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.6 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| DET J. Berggren | 1.4 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.4 | 2 | 0.28 | 2 | 12% | 1 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.3 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.3 | 2 | 0.53 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.3 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SEA B. Tanev | 1.2 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.2 | 0 | 0.45 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.2 | 2 | 0.70 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| DET T. Motte | 1.1 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.1 | 0 | 0.50 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| DET E. Gustafsson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.33 | 2 | 6% | 1 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.1 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| DET J. Veleno | 1.0 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SEA R. Evans | 1.0 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SEA T. Kartye | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.14 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SEA J. Mahura | 0.9 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| SEA M. Stephens | 0.7 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| DET J. Holl | 0.5 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.