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Game Recap
SEA2
DET4
DET beat SEA 4-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.53 expected goals to 2.17. L. Raymond led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). C. Talbot stopped 20 of 22.
Team Stats
SEADET
22Shots on goal27
2.17Expected goals3.53
39Shot attempts58
195v5 shots on goal23
1/2Power play1/2
11Hits23
14Blocked shots9
4Penalty minutes4
14Giveaways13
3Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SEA 2.17 xGDET 3.53 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 14:35 | 2:06 |
| M. Beniers | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:44 | 2:06 |
| J. Eberle | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:32 | 2:06 |
| S. Wright | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:26 | 1:06 |
| C. Stephenson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:34 | 2:02 |
| M. Marchment | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:55 | 1:06 |
| J. Schwartz | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:52 | 1:06 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:35 | 0:00 |
| B. Catton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:05 | 1:06 |
| T. Kartye | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:35 | 0:00 |
| R. Winterton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 11:19 | 0:00 |
| J. Nyman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9:30 | 0:00 |
| R. Evans | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:03 | 0:00 |
| B. Montour | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 24:51 | 1:10 |
| V. Dunn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 21:38 | 2:06 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:26 | 0:00 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:08 | 0:00 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:17 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Daccord | 26 | 23 | 3 | .885 | 58:36 | Loss |
| P. Grubauer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
DET Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. DeBrincat | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:24 | 2:56 |
| L. Raymond | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:53 | 3:09 |
| N. Danielson | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:27 | 0:10 |
| D. Larkin | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 22:13 | 2:56 |
| M. Appleton | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:41 | 0:00 |
| A. Copp | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:35 | 0:23 |
| E. Finnie | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:36 | 0:23 |
| P. Kane | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:56 | 2:49 |
| J. Compher | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:44 | 0:00 |
| M. Kasper | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:15 | 0:00 |
| M. Rasmussen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:05 | 0:00 |
| J. van Riemsdyk | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:35 | 0:21 |
| M. Seider | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 22:50 | 0:13 |
| A. Sandin-Pellikka | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 20:55 | 3:06 |
| S. Edvinsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 23:26 | 0:09 |
| B. Chiarot | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 2 | 20:49 | 0:00 |
| A. Johansson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:56 | 0:00 |
| T. Hamonic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 14:28 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
SEA
Line 1J. Eberle16:06M. Beniers15:48M. Marchment16:26
Line 2J. Schwartz13:28C. Stephenson15:06R. Winterton11:19
Line 3E. Tolvanen12:14S. Wright12:20B. Catton11:44
Line 4F. Gaudreau11:34T. Kartye10:10J. Nyman9:30
Pair 1R. Lindgren18:56B. Montour22:17
Pair 2A. Larsson18:38V. Dunn18:08
Pair 3R. Evans13:14J. Oleksiak13:27
DET
Line 1D. Larkin17:25A. DeBrincat16:46L. Raymond16:02
Line 2P. Kane13:07J. Compher13:48M. Kasper12:48
Line 3M. Appleton12:47N. Danielson11:17E. Finnie11:13
Line 4A. Copp9:53M. Rasmussen10:23J. Riemsdyk10:14
Pair 1M. Seider20:22S. Edvinsson21:14
Pair 2B. Chiarot19:25A. Sandin-Pellikka17:49
Pair 3T. Hamonic13:09A. Johansson12:43
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SEA 2.9, DET 3.3 | SEA 2, DET 4 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | SEA 24.8, DET 29.4 | SEA 22, DET 27 |
| Win chance | DET 57% | DET won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET A. DeBrincat | 3.2 | 3 | 0.87 | 2 | 32% | 0 |
| DET D. Larkin | 3.0 | 4 | 1.02 | 1 | 35% | 1 |
| DET P. Kane | 2.5 | 2 | 0.81 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| DET L. Raymond | 2.2 | 3 | 0.91 | 2 | 27% | 1 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.2 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SEA J. Eberle | 2.2 | 2 | 0.73 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 2.1 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| SEA V. Dunn | 2.0 | 1 | 0.66 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DET M. Seider | 1.9 | 2 | 0.52 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| SEA M. Marchment | 1.9 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.8 | 0 | 0.66 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| DET M. Kasper | 1.7 | 1 | 0.40 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.5 | 4 | 0.48 | 2 | 21% | 0 |
| DET E. Finnie | 1.5 | 1 | 0.46 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| DET J. Riemsdyk | 1.3 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| DET B. Chiarot | 1.2 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| DET A. Sandin-Pellikka | 1.2 | 2 | 0.31 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| DET J. Compher | 1.2 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.2 | 2 | 0.72 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| DET S. Edvinsson | 1.2 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| DET M. Appleton | 1.1 | 1 | 0.30 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.1 | 1 | 0.46 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| SEA R. Winterton | 1.1 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SEA F. Gaudreau | 1.1 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SEA J. Nyman | 1.1 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DET A. Copp | 1.1 | 3 | 0.38 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| DET M. Rasmussen | 1.1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| DET T. Hamonic | 1.0 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SEA T. Kartye | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| SEA R. Lindgren | 0.8 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SEA B. Catton | 0.8 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 0.8 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| DET A. Johansson | 0.8 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SEA R. Evans | 0.8 | 1 | 0.28 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.