Game Recap: SEA 6, DET 3, October 9, 2026

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Game Recap

SEA6

FinalFri, Oct 9, 2026Every game that night

DET3

SEA beat DET 6-3 despite fewer good chances: 3.63 expected goals to 4.25. DET outshot SEA 40 to 24. B. Meyers led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). B. Catton had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. P. Grubauer stopped 37 of 40.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SEA	1	4	1	6
DET	1	1	1	3

1st 9:19DETV. ArvidssonPP0.07 xG
1st 14:52SEAB. Catton0.27 xG
2nd 4:00DETW. Wallinder0.03 xG
2nd 4:39SEAF. Gaudreau0.11 xG
2nd 6:59SEAM. Samoskevich0.21 xG
2nd 7:44SEAF. Gaudreau0.07 xG
2nd 14:05SEAB. Meyers0.17 xG
3rd 11:53SEAV. DunnPP0.20 xG
3rd 15:27DETM. Brandsegg-Nygård0.70 xG

Team Stats

SEADET

24Shots on goal40

3.63Expected goals4.25

53Shot attempts80

195v5 shots on goal36

1/3Power play1/3

18Hits23

22Blocked shots12

6Penalty minutes6

17Giveaways18

5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SEA 3.63 xGDET 4.25 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SEA24 on goal, 6 scored

DET38 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Meyers	C	1	2	3	3	3	1	+3	2	13:37	0:00
F. Gaudreau	C	2	0	2	2	0	2	+2	0	15:36	0:00
B. Catton	C	1	1	2	4	2	0	+2	0	14:33	2:27
R. Winterton	C	0	2	2	0	0	1	+2	0	13:22	0:00
C. Stephenson	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	2	16:54	0:50
M. Samoskevich	RW	1	0	1	2	0	1	-1	0	16:04	1:01
K. Kakko	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	13:50	2:30
J. McCann	LW	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	0	12:01	0:19
M. Beniers	C	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	17:41	2:51
B. McMann	C	0	0	0	3	2	2	0	0	15:57	0:25
J. Eberle	RW	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	2	15:40	0:54
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+2	0	12:21	1:24
B. Montour	D	0	2	2	0	0	3	+2	0	26:03	2:54
V. Dunn	D	1	0	1	2	0	0	-1	0	21:51	1:02
J. Mahura	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	12:26	0:00
R. Evans	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	+3	0	23:05	0:00
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	2	2	4	0	0	20:39	0:08
V. Ottavainen	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	+2	0	13:39	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Grubauer	40	37	3	.925	59:55	Win
J. Daccord	0	0	0	–	0:00

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Brandsegg-Nygård	RW	1	1	2	4	4	1	+1	2	14:18	1:02
V. Arvidsson	LW	1	0	1	3	0	1	-1	0	17:37	1:58
L. Raymond	LW	0	1	1	3	0	0	-1	0	17:26	1:54
A. DeBrincat	RW	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	0	16:01	1:39
D. Larkin	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	18:19	1:57
E. Finnie	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	+1	0	15:37	1:06
A. Copp	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	15:21	1:01
M. Rasmussen	C	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	0	15:19	1:01
K. Kolesar	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	-2	2	13:19	0:06
C. Mazur	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	11:36	0:00
S. Dries	C	0	0	0	4	7	2	-2	0	11:11	0:00
N. Danielson	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	10:50	0:07
M. Seider	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	0	22:23	1:48
W. Wallinder	D	1	0	1	3	1	2	-2	0	18:16	0:00
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	21:17	0:19
A. Johansson	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	-1	0	19:44	0:04
J. Faulk	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-3	0	18:49	1:13
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	17:08	0:10

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Gibson	15	10	5	.667	34:05	Loss
D. Tarasov	9	8	1	.889	25:55

Lines at 5-on-5

SEA

Line 1C. Stephenson15:37B. McMann15:32J. Eberle13:23

Line 2M. Samoskevich15:03M. Beniers12:56J. McCann10:45

Line 3R. Winterton12:37B. Meyers12:28F. Gaudreau13:39

Line 4S. Wright10:49K. Kakko11:20B. Catton11:17

Pair 1B. Montour20:41R. Evans20:44

Pair 2A. Larsson18:13V. Dunn18:21

Pair 3J. Mahura12:26V. Ottavainen13:39

DET

Line 1D. Larkin15:45V. Arvidsson15:11L. Raymond14:58

Line 2E. Finnie13:20M. Brandsegg-Nygård13:16A. DeBrincat13:34

Line 3A. Copp12:06M. Rasmussen12:12K. Kolesar12:13

Line 4C. Mazur11:36N. Danielson10:43S. Dries10:37

Pair 1M. Seider18:41A. Johansson19:42

Pair 2B. Chiarot15:14A. Johansson17:32

Pair 3J. Faulk16:36W. Wallinder16:14

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

10 of 19 overs hit (53%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
DET A. DeBrincat	3.5	+106	-130	3	Under
DET D. Larkin	3.5	+125	-154	1	Under
SEA B. McMann	2.5	+105	-120	3	Over
SEA B. Montour	2.5	+105	-125	0	Under
SEA J. McCann	2.5	+140	-180	0	Under
DET L. Raymond	2.5	+100	-120	3	Over
DET M. Seider	2.5	+135	-160	1	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	2.5	-144	+110	3	Over
SEA V. Dunn	2.5	+148	-185	2	Under
DET A. Copp	1.5	+100	-115	2	Over
SEA B. Catton	1.5	-115	-115	4	Over
DET E. Finnie	1.5	-110	-115	2	Over
SEA J. Eberle	1.5	-125	+100	1	Under
DET J. Faulk	1.5	-130	+105	2	Over
SEA M. Beniers	1.5	-105	-105	2	Over
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	1.5	+140	-190	4	Over
SEA M. Samoskevich	1.5	-150	+125	2	Over
SEA R. Winterton	1.5	+120	-140	0	Under
SEA S. Wright	1.5	+110	-135	0	Under

8 of 34 overs hit (24%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+430	-600	0	Under
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	+138	-165	0	Under
DET A. Johansson	0.5	+1400	-4000	0	Under
SEA A. Larsson	0.5	+1400	-2500	0	Under
SEA B. Catton	0.5	+440	-500	1	Over
DET B. Chiarot	0.5	+2200	-4000	0	Under
SEA B. McMann	0.5	+250	-350	0	Under
SEA B. Meyers	0.5	+1000	-1600	1	Over
SEA B. Montour	0.5	+550	-700	0	Under
DET C. Mazur	0.5	+950	-3500	0	Under
SEA C. Stephenson	0.5	+400	-650	0	Under
DET D. Larkin	0.5	+170	-190	0	Under
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+500	-700	0	Under
SEA F. Gaudreau	0.5	+1000	-1400	2	Over
SEA J. Eberle	0.5	+270	-400	0	Under
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+700	-1200	0	Under
SEA J. Mahura	0.5	+1000	-4000	0	Under
SEA J. McCann	0.5	+260	-370	0	Under
SEA K. Kakko	0.5	+500	-800	0	Under
DET K. Kolesar	0.5	+1000	-4000	0	Under
DET L. Raymond	0.5	+210	-240	0	Under
SEA M. Beniers	0.5	+370	-450	0	Under
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+475	-900	1	Over
DET M. Rasmussen	0.5	+650	-1200	0	Under
SEA M. Samoskevich	0.5	+300	-450	1	Over
DET M. Seider	0.5	+550	-700	0	Under
DET N. Danielson	0.5	+750	-2500	0	Under
SEA R. Evans	0.5	+1400	-4000	0	Under
SEA R. Winterton	0.5	+900	-1200	0	Under
DET S. Dries	0.5	+900	-2800	0	Under
SEA S. Wright	0.5	+400	-750	0	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	+205	-250	1	Over
SEA V. Dunn	0.5	+575	-1000	1	Over
DET W. Wallinder	0.5	+1400	–	1	Over

9 of 20 overs hit (45%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+240	-325	0	Under
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	+135	-150	1	Over
SEA B. Catton	0.5	+340	-500	1	Over
SEA B. McMann	0.5	+300	-450	0	Under
SEA B. Montour	0.5	+195	-250	2	Over
SEA C. Stephenson	0.5	+170	-225	1	Over
DET D. Larkin	0.5	+135	-175	0	Under
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+285	-350	0	Under
SEA J. Eberle	0.5	+175	-235	0	Under
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+240	-340	0	Under
SEA J. McCann	0.5	+160	-200	1	Over
SEA K. Kakko	0.5	+220	-280	1	Over
DET L. Raymond	0.5	+105	-140	1	Over
SEA M. Beniers	0.5	+200	-220	0	Under
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+320	-600	1	Over
SEA M. Samoskevich	0.5	+310	-450	0	Under
DET M. Seider	0.5	+110	-125	1	Over
SEA S. Wright	0.5	+320	-425	0	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	+150	-195	0	Under
SEA V. Dunn	0.5	+145	-195	0	Under

12 of 20 overs hit (60%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+145	-170	0	Under
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	-190	+170	1	Over
SEA B. Catton	0.5	+175	-220	2	Over
SEA B. McMann	0.5	+125	-132	0	Under
SEA B. Montour	0.5	+135	-145	2	Over
SEA C. Stephenson	0.5	+115	-132	1	Over
DET D. Larkin	0.5	-175	+145	0	Under
DET E. Finnie	0.5	+170	-190	0	Under
SEA J. Eberle	0.5	-105	-110	0	Under
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+165	-205	0	Under
SEA J. McCann	0.5	-118	-105	1	Over
SEA K. Kakko	0.5	+130	-155	1	Over
DET L. Raymond	0.5	-165	+145	1	Over
SEA M. Beniers	0.5	+105	-115	0	Under
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	0.5	+200	-280	2	Over
SEA M. Samoskevich	0.5	+135	-155	1	Over
DET M. Seider	0.5	-120	+105	1	Over
SEA S. Wright	0.5	+150	-190	0	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	-145	+115	1	Over
SEA V. Dunn	0.5	+111	-135	1	Over

6 of 17 overs hit (35%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
DET A. Copp	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
DET A. DeBrincat	0.5	+230	-215	0	Under
SEA B. Catton	0.5	+475	-1400	0	Under
SEA B. McMann	0.5	+300	-600	0	Under
SEA B. Montour	0.5	+325	-500	1	Over
SEA C. Stephenson	0.5	+260	-450	1	Over
DET D. Larkin	0.5	+250	-260	0	Under
SEA J. Eberle	0.5	+260	-450	0	Under
DET J. Faulk	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
SEA J. McCann	0.5	+210	-350	0	Under
SEA K. Kakko	0.5	+450	-1200	0	Under
DET L. Raymond	0.5	+230	-240	1	Over
SEA M. Beniers	0.5	+390	-1000	0	Under
DET M. Seider	0.5	+210	-215	1	Over
SEA S. Wright	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
DET V. Arvidsson	0.5	+250	-350	1	Over
SEA V. Dunn	0.5	+250	-425	1	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
DET J. Gibson	23.5	-102	-130	10	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
SEA A. Larsson	2.5	+120	-170	4	Over
DET M. Seider	2.5	+115	-160	1	Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SEA 2.9, DET 3.4	SEA 6, DET 3
Total goals	6.3	9
Shots on goal	SEA 25.0, DET 30.0	SEA 24, DET 40
Win chance	DET 57%	SEA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DET A. DeBrincat	3.2	3	1.03	1	36%	0
DET D. Larkin	3.1	1	0.98	0	36%	0
DET V. Arvidsson	3.0	3	0.91	1	31%	1
SEA B. McMann	2.6	3	0.59	0	28%	0
SEA B. Montour	2.5	0	0.50	2	15%	0
DET L. Raymond	2.5	3	1.05	1	30%	0
DET M. Seider	2.3	1	0.66	1	9%	0
SEA J. McCann	2.2	0	0.72	1	27%	0
DET M. Brandsegg-Nygård	2.1	4	0.29	2	13%	1
SEA M. Samoskevich	2.1	2	0.46	1	18%	1
SEA V. Dunn	1.9	2	0.55	1	12%	1
DET J. Faulk	1.8	2	0.48	0	10%	0
SEA J. Eberle	1.7	1	0.62	0	22%	0
SEA R. Winterton	1.6	0	0.28	2	8%	0
DET E. Finnie	1.6	2	0.42	0	18%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.5	2	0.56	0	21%	0
DET A. Copp	1.5	2	0.56	0	16%	0
SEA B. Catton	1.4	4	0.37	2	15%	1
SEA A. Larsson	1.4	2	0.30	0	7%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.3	2	0.35	0	16%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.3	0	0.19	0	5%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.2	0	0.46	0	19%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.2	1	0.55	1	17%	0
SEA F. Gaudreau	1.1	2	0.33	2	14%	2
SEA C. Stephenson	1.0	0	0.62	1	18%	0
SEA B. Meyers	1.0	3	0.22	3	11%	1
DET N. Danielson	0.9	1	0.24	0	9%	0
DET K. Kolesar	0.9	1	0.26	0	11%	0
SEA J. Mahura	0.9	0	0.20	1	3%	0
SEA R. Evans	0.8	0	0.30	0	8%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.8	3	0.14	0	4%	0
DET C. Mazur	0.7	2	0.21	0	10%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 32 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.