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Game Recap
SEA2
EDM4
EDM beat SEA 4-2, with the chances close: 3.50 expected goals to 2.87. M. Ekholm led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). V. Dunn had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. C. Pickard stopped 26 of 28.
Team Stats
SEAEDM
28Shots on goal31
2.87Expected goals3.50
52Shot attempts59
285v5 shots on goal26
0/4Power play0/1
18Hits14
15Blocked shots11
2Penalty minutes6
16Giveaways22
1Takeaways0
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SEA 2.87 xGEDM 3.50 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Beniers | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:15 | 3:11 |
| S. Wright | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:26 | 1:46 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:20 | 0:53 |
| J. Hayden | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 7:23 | 0:00 |
| J. Schwartz | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:24 | 3:54 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:12 | 4:31 |
| C. Stephenson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:24 | 3:37 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:07 | 2:07 |
| J. McCann | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:54 | 4:00 |
| A. Burakovsky | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 14:49 | 1:49 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:47 | 0:11 |
| M. Stephens | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:42 | 0:12 |
| V. Dunn | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 24:15 | 4:35 |
| B. Montour | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 0 | 25:21 | 2:39 |
| R. Evans | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2 | 21:33 | 0:29 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:51 | 0:16 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 12:04 | 0:00 |
| J. Mahura | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:37 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Daccord | 30 | 27 | 3 | .900 | 58:36 | Loss |
| P. Grubauer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
EDM Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. McDavid | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:00 | 1:46 |
| L. Draisaitl | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:02 | 1:47 |
| C. Brown | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 15:48 | 0:00 |
| M. Janmark | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:58 | 0:00 |
| R. Nugent-Hopkins | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 14:29 | 1:44 |
| C. Perry | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:39 | 0:13 |
| Z. Hyman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:32 | 1:49 |
| A. Henrique | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:21 | 0:14 |
| K. Kapanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:11 | 0:00 |
| V. Podkolzin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:04 | 0:00 |
| V. Arvidsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:04 | 0:16 |
| N. Philp | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:42 | 0:00 |
| M. Ekholm | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 24:42 | 0:11 |
| D. Nurse | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:46 | 0:44 |
| E. Bouchard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:16 | 1:16 |
| B. Kulak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:28 | 0:00 |
| T. Emberson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 18:28 | 0:00 |
| T. Stecher | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 13:36 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Pickard | 28 | 26 | 2 | .929 | 59:54 | Win |
| T. Palmer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SEA 2.5, EDM 3.5 | SEA 2, EDM 4 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | SEA 24.3, EDM 31.7 | SEA 28, EDM 31 |
| Win chance | EDM 65% | EDM won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM C. McDavid | 3.2 | 2 | 1.74 | 1 | 41% | 1 |
| EDM L. Draisaitl | 3.0 | 3 | 1.51 | 1 | 45% | 0 |
| EDM Z. Hyman | 3.0 | 4 | 0.86 | 0 | 38% | 0 |
| EDM E. Bouchard | 2.6 | 2 | 0.85 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| EDM V. Arvidsson | 2.4 | 2 | 0.63 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| EDM D. Nurse | 2.2 | 2 | 0.42 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 2.2 | 3 | 0.55 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| SEA J. McCann | 2.1 | 0 | 0.66 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| EDM M. Ekholm | 2.0 | 5 | 0.45 | 2 | 11% | 1 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.0 | 5 | 0.43 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SEA O. Bjorkstrand | 1.9 | 4 | 0.57 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins | 1.9 | 2 | 0.80 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.7 | 1 | 0.53 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| SEA K. Kakko | 1.7 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| SEA V. Dunn | 1.5 | 5 | 0.54 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| SEA A. Burakovsky | 1.5 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| EDM B. Kulak | 1.5 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| EDM V. Podkolzin | 1.5 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.5 | 2 | 0.36 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| EDM C. Brown | 1.4 | 0 | 0.36 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| EDM A. Henrique | 1.3 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| EDM C. Perry | 1.2 | 1 | 0.38 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SEA B. Tanev | 1.1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.0 | 0 | 0.45 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.58 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| EDM K. Kapanen | 1.0 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| EDM N. Philp | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SEA R. Evans | 0.9 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SEA J. Mahura | 0.9 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| EDM M. Janmark | 0.8 | 1 | 0.30 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| EDM T. Emberson | 0.8 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| SEA J. Hayden | 0.8 | 3 | 0.09 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 0.7 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| EDM T. Stecher | 0.7 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SEA M. Stephens | 0.6 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.