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Game Recap
SEA4
EDM5
EDM beat SEA 5-4, with the chances close: 3.05 expected goals to 2.90. R. Nugent-Hopkins scored three for EDM. T. Kartye had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.7. S. Skinner stopped 28 of 32.
Team Stats
SEAEDM
32Shots on goal29
2.90Expected goals3.05
53Shot attempts65
235v5 shots on goal24
2/3Power play2/5
18Hits13
21Blocked shots12
10Penalty minutes6
15Giveaways14
6Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SEA 2.90 xGEDM 3.05 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Kakko | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 17:24 | 2:45 |
| J. Nyman | RW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:10 | 2:47 |
| J. McCann | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 15:07 | 1:14 |
| M. Beniers | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:44 | 2:47 |
| J. Schwartz | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:56 | 1:12 |
| A. Burakovsky | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 11:21 | 1:16 |
| J. Eberle | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:27 | 2:49 |
| S. Wright | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:23 | 1:14 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 14:24 | 0:00 |
| T. Kartye | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:54 | 0:00 |
| J. Hayden | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:22 | 0:00 |
| M. Eyssimont | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 7:36 | 0:00 |
| V. Dunn | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 4 | 21:45 | 1:46 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 22:31 | 0:00 |
| B. Montour | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:25 | 2:51 |
| R. Evans | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:49 | 0:00 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:10 | 0:00 |
| J. Mahura | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:09 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Daccord | 28 | 24 | 4 | .857 | 58:00 | Loss |
| P. Grubauer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
EDM Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Nugent-Hopkins | C | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 23:02 | 4:35 |
| J. Skinner | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:38 | 3:45 |
| C. Brown | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:15 | 0:00 |
| Z. Hyman | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:14 | 4:25 |
| A. Henrique | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:54 | 3:00 |
| K. Kapanen | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:15 | 2:53 |
| V. Arvidsson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:16 | 4:26 |
| M. Janmark | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 17:22 | 0:00 |
| V. Podkolzin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:16 | 0:00 |
| C. Perry | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 10:57 | 2:59 |
| M. Jones | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:32 | 0:00 |
| D. Ryan | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:11 | 0:00 |
| D. Nurse | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 23:34 | 2:44 |
| M. Ekholm | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:13 | 1:54 |
| J. Walman | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:21 | 2:59 |
| E. Bouchard | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:21 | 3:15 |
| B. Kulak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 17:35 | 0:00 |
| T. Stecher | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:03 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Skinner | 32 | 28 | 4 | .875 | 60:00 | Win |
| C. Pickard | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SEA 2.9, EDM 3.7 | SEA 4, EDM 5 |
| Total goals | 6.6 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | SEA 26.2, EDM 31.8 | SEA 32, EDM 29 |
| Win chance | EDM 62% | EDM won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM Z. Hyman | 2.7 | 2 | 0.77 | 1 | 36% | 0 |
| EDM E. Bouchard | 2.5 | 2 | 0.87 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| EDM D. Nurse | 2.2 | 2 | 0.43 | 2 | 10% | 0 |
| SEA J. McCann | 2.1 | 2 | 0.62 | 2 | 25% | 0 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.1 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| EDM V. Arvidsson | 2.1 | 3 | 0.56 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 2.0 | 1 | 0.49 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| EDM J. Walman | 2.0 | 1 | 0.46 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| EDM J. Skinner | 2.0 | 3 | 0.54 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| EDM M. Ekholm | 1.9 | 1 | 0.50 | 2 | 12% | 0 |
| SEA V. Dunn | 1.8 | 2 | 0.56 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins | 1.8 | 5 | 0.78 | 3 | 23% | 3 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.7 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| SEA J. Eberle | 1.6 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.6 | 2 | 0.51 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| SEA K. Kakko | 1.5 | 2 | 0.47 | 2 | 18% | 2 |
| SEA M. Eyssimont | 1.4 | 4 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| EDM B. Kulak | 1.3 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SEA A. Burakovsky | 1.3 | 1 | 0.40 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| SEA J. Nyman | 1.3 | 4 | 0.33 | 2 | 15% | 0 |
| EDM V. Podkolzin | 1.3 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| EDM C. Brown | 1.3 | 3 | 0.35 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.3 | 0 | 0.61 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| EDM C. Perry | 1.3 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| EDM A. Henrique | 1.2 | 1 | 0.42 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.2 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| EDM K. Kapanen | 1.0 | 0 | 0.28 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| EDM M. Jones | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 0.8 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SEA J. Mahura | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| SEA J. Hayden | 0.8 | 2 | 0.10 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| EDM M. Janmark | 0.7 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| EDM T. Stecher | 0.7 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SEA R. Evans | 0.7 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SEA T. Kartye | 0.7 | 4 | 0.15 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| EDM D. Ryan | 0.6 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.