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Game Recap
SEA4
FinalThu, Dec 4, 2025Every game that night
EDM9

EDM beat SEA 9-4, with the chances close: 4.37 expected goals to 4.16. C. McDavid scored three for EDM. C. McDavid had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.8. C. Pickard stopped 28 of 32.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
SEA2114
EDM3339
  1. 1st 7:17EDMC. McDavid0.07 xG
  2. 1st 7:34EDMV. Podkolzin0.02 xG
  3. 1st 11:27EDML. DraisaitlPP0.13 xG
  4. 1st 16:07SEAE. TolvanenPP0.05 xG
  5. 1st 19:33SEAF. Gaudreau0.15 xG
  6. 2nd 2:28EDMM. SavoieSH0.11 xG
  7. 2nd 6:14EDMC. McDavidPP0.06 xG
  8. 2nd 8:53EDMZ. Hyman0.17 xG
  9. 2nd 9:30SEAJ. McCann0.21 xG
  10. 3rd 2:03EDMM. Janmark0.37 xG
  11. 3rd 6:59EDMC. McDavidPP0.07 xG
  12. 3rd 8:58EDMM. SavoiePP0.53 xG
  13. 3rd 19:55SEAJ. Nyman0.24 xG

Team Stats

SEAEDM
32Shots on goal32
4.16Expected goals4.37
73Shot attempts53
265v5 shots on goal22
1/3Power play4/5
23Hits22
7Blocked shots20
10Penalty minutes6
14Giveaways13
6Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SEA 4.16 xGEDM 4.37 xGGoal

012341st2nd3rdEDM goal, 7:17EDM goal, 7:34EDM goal, 11:27SEA goal, 16:07SEA goal, 19:33EDM goal, 2:28EDM goal, 6:14EDM goal, 8:53SEA goal, 9:30EDM goal, 2:03EDM goal, 6:59EDM goal, 8:58SEA goal, 19:55

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SEA31 on goal, 4 scored
EDM32 on goal, 9 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SEA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
K. KakkoRW0221000013:391:46
M. BeniersC011000-1017:291:33
J. EberleRW011310-1016:532:29
J. McCannLW101101-1016:382:28
E. TolvanenRW101310-1215:211:46
F. GaudreauC1013000014:060:00
S. WrightC0113210013:521:49
J. NymanRW1011100012:150:00
C. StephensonC000100-2016:492:23
B. CattonC000000-1016:071:51
R. WintertonC0001300013:020:00
T. KartyeLW0002500010:510:00
B. MontourD011340-1618:242:57
V. DunnD000400+2024:282:13
A. LarssonD000234+2021:240:00
R. LindgrenD000220-1019:480:00
R. EvansD000011-2217:180:00
J. OleksiakD000100-3015:190:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Daccord1495.64325:58Loss
P. Grubauer18144.77833:46

EDM Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. McDavidC3147000017:201:26
L. DraisaitlC134300+1017:101:26
R. Nugent-HopkinsC033000-1015:391:26
M. SavoieC2024010019:411:59
A. HenriqueC022225+1215:262:02
M. JanmarkC1013000016:560:12
Z. HymanLW101310+1016:081:23
V. PodkolzinRW101131+2016:050:00
A. MangiapaneLW011100+1215:291:59
T. FredericC0001100010:010:12
C. LazarC000131009:230:12
C. ClattenburgC000020025:580:00
E. BouchardD033102+2020:361:26
M. EkholmD022030+2019:041:59
D. NurseD0003320021:261:59
B. KulakD0001120019:560:12
T. EmbersonD0001130019:300:12
A. RegulaD0000230018:120:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
C. Pickard32284.87560:00Win
S. Skinner000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SEA

Line 1J. Eberle14:08J. McCann13:48M. Beniers14:32
Line 2C. Stephenson13:12B. Catton14:00E. Tolvanen12:29
Line 3S. Wright12:03K. Kakko11:53J. Nyman12:15
Line 4T. Kartye10:51R. Winterton11:17F. Gaudreau11:43
Pair 1A. Larsson17:52V. Dunn22:15
Pair 2R. Lindgren16:15B. Montour15:27
Pair 3J. Oleksiak13:51R. Evans15:49

EDM

Line 1L. Draisaitl15:26M. Savoie15:34V. Podkolzin13:46
Line 2Z. Hyman14:45C. McDavid15:19R. Nugent-Hopkins13:19
Line 3A. Henrique11:44M. Janmark14:46A. Mangiapane13:14
Line 4C. Lazar8:40T. Frederic9:44C. Clattenburg5:46
Pair 1D. Nurse18:09A. Regula17:03
Pair 2B. Kulak17:36T. Emberson17:17
Pair 3M. Ekholm15:01E. Bouchard16:31

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreSEA 2.7, EDM 3.2SEA 4, EDM 9
Total goals5.913
Shots on goalSEA 24.6, EDM 29.6SEA 32, EDM 32
Win chanceEDM 58%EDM won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
EDM C. McDavid2.871.51437%3
EDM E. Bouchard2.810.93317%0
EDM L. Draisaitl2.731.36444%1
EDM Z. Hyman2.730.78135%1
SEA J. McCann2.510.76128%1
SEA J. Eberle2.230.68124%0
SEA B. Montour2.130.48114%0
EDM M. Ekholm2.000.46210%0
EDM D. Nurse2.030.3609%0
EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins1.900.77323%0
SEA V. Dunn1.840.58013%0
SEA M. Beniers1.800.60122%0
SEA E. Tolvanen1.630.44119%1
EDM V. Podkolzin1.610.40115%1
EDM A. Henrique1.620.42220%0
EDM M. Savoie1.440.29213%2
SEA K. Kakko1.210.38214%0
EDM B. Kulak1.210.2104%0
SEA S. Wright1.230.49119%0
SEA J. Nyman1.210.23112%1
SEA C. Stephenson1.110.65019%0
EDM A. Mangiapane1.110.35116%0
SEA F. Gaudreau1.130.33114%1
SEA B. Catton1.000.32010%0
SEA A. Larsson1.020.2506%0
EDM T. Frederic1.010.21011%0
SEA T. Kartye0.920.24012%0
SEA R. Winterton0.910.1508%0
EDM A. Regula0.900.0804%0
EDM T. Emberson0.910.2104%0
EDM M. Janmark0.830.2419%1
SEA R. Lindgren0.720.2204%0
SEA J. Oleksiak0.710.1604%0
SEA R. Evans0.600.2605%0
EDM C. Lazar0.610.1707%0

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.