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Game Recap
SEA0
EDM3
EDM beat SEA 3-0, with the chances close: 2.89 expected goals to 2.24. V. Dunn had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. C. Ingram stopped 27 of 27.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| EDM | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 5:28EDMM. Jones0.14 xG
- 1st 12:43EDMK. Kapanen0.02 xG
- 3rd 17:34EDMC. McDavidEN0.61 xG
Team Stats
SEAEDM
27Shots on goal24
2.24Expected goals2.89
60Shot attempts44
215v5 shots on goal19
0/3Power play0/1
13Hits17
8Blocked shots16
2Penalty minutes6
12Giveaways8
5Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
SEA 2.24 xGEDM 2.89 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Eberle | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:42 | 4:08 |
| M. Beniers | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:04 | 4:02 |
| C. Stephenson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:40 | 4:02 |
| B. Catton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:17 | 0:02 |
| J. McCann | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:50 | 4:22 |
| B. McMann | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:49 | 1:57 |
| J. Schwartz | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:00 | 1:51 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:43 | 1:34 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:23 | 0:00 |
| O. Fisker Molgaard | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:05 | 0:00 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 12:30 | 1:56 |
| B. Meyers | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:23 | 0:00 |
| V. Dunn | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 22:01 | 4:24 |
| R. Evans | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:55 | 0:00 |
| B. Montour | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:41 | 1:42 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:32 | 0:00 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:20 | 0:00 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:34 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Grubauer | 23 | 21 | 2 | .913 | 59:31 | Loss |
| J. Daccord | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
EDM Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. McDavid | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 19:46 | 1:46 |
| Z. Hyman | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 17:39 | 1:46 |
| R. Nugent-Hopkins | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:35 | 1:46 |
| K. Kapanen | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:12 | 0:02 |
| M. Jones | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:53 | 0:00 |
| M. Savoie | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:25 | 0:58 |
| V. Podkolzin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:13 | 1:00 |
| J. Dickinson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:40 | 0:02 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:39 | 0:12 |
| A. Henrique | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:38 | 0:14 |
| C. Lazar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:50 | 0:00 |
| J. Samanski | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:48 | 0:00 |
| J. Walman | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:21 | 0:12 |
| D. Nurse | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 23:12 | 0:02 |
| C. Murphy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | +2 | 0 | 22:08 | 0:02 |
| E. Bouchard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:18 | 1:46 |
| M. Ekholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 18:27 | 0:12 |
| T. Emberson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:16 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
SEA
Line 1J. Eberle14:05M. Beniers13:39J. McCann10:59
Line 2C. Stephenson12:42B. McMann13:21K. Kakko13:09
Line 3J. Schwartz12:29O. Molgaard13:05B. Catton17:15
Line 4F. Gaudreau13:01B. Meyers10:17E. Tolvanen10:34
Pair 1R. Evans21:02B. Montour18:30
Pair 2A. Larsson17:25V. Dunn17:06
Pair 3J. Oleksiak13:43R. Lindgren15:13
EDM
Line 1C. McDavid17:15V. Podkolzin15:11M. Savoie14:42
Line 2Z. Hyman15:24R. Nugent-Hopkins14:47J. Roslovic13:27
Line 3A. Henrique11:28J. Dickinson11:12K. Kapanen11:34
Line 4C. Lazar9:50J. Samanski9:22M. Jones9:53
Pair 2M. Ekholm16:57E. Bouchard17:30
Pair 3J. Walman16:01T. Emberson15:57
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SEA 2.9, EDM 3.6 | SEA 0, EDM 3 |
| Total goals | 6.5 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | SEA 24.5, EDM 31.8 | SEA 27, EDM 24 |
| Win chance | EDM 61% | EDM won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM C. McDavid | 3.5 | 3 | 1.64 | 1 | 39% | 1 |
| EDM E. Bouchard | 3.0 | 1 | 1.09 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| EDM Z. Hyman | 2.8 | 0 | 0.88 | 1 | 39% | 0 |
| SEA B. McMann | 2.6 | 4 | 0.68 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.4 | 3 | 0.52 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SEA J. McCann | 2.2 | 1 | 0.69 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| EDM M. Savoie | 2.1 | 4 | 0.59 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| EDM D. Nurse | 2.1 | 4 | 0.35 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SEA J. Eberle | 2.0 | 3 | 0.68 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| EDM R. Nugent-Hopkins | 2.0 | 1 | 0.80 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.9 | 3 | 0.61 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| EDM V. Podkolzin | 1.8 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| EDM J. Roslovic | 1.8 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| SEA V. Dunn | 1.8 | 5 | 0.57 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| EDM M. Ekholm | 1.8 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.7 | 3 | 0.46 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| EDM J. Walman | 1.7 | 2 | 0.36 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| EDM K. Kapanen | 1.6 | 2 | 0.41 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 1.6 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SEA B. Catton | 1.5 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SEA K. Kakko | 1.3 | 0 | 0.52 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.69 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| SEA F. Gaudreau | 1.2 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| EDM J. Dickinson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| EDM C. Murphy | 1.2 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| EDM A. Henrique | 1.2 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.1 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| EDM M. Jones | 1.0 | 1 | 0.21 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| SEA B. Meyers | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SEA O. Molgaard | 0.9 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SEA R. Evans | 0.7 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SEA R. Lindgren | 0.6 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 0.6 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| EDM T. Emberson | 0.6 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| EDM C. Lazar | 0.6 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| EDM J. Samanski | 0.5 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.