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Game Recap
SEA1
FinalSat, Oct 3, 2026Every game that night
EDM3

EDM beat SEA 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.91 expected goals to 1.71. C. McDavid led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). D. Levi stopped 19 of 20.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
SEA0101
EDM1023
  1. 1st 2:51EDMO. Michaels0.06 xG
  2. 2nd 9:06SEAB. McMannPP0.08 xG
  3. 3rd 17:33EDML. Draisaitl0.19 xG
  4. 3rd 18:55EDMC. McDavidEN0.60 xG

Team Stats

SEAEDM
20Shots on goal25
1.71Expected goals3.91
37Shot attempts61
165v5 shots on goal15
1/2Power play0/3
18Hits31
18Blocked shots8
23Penalty minutes23
16Giveaways15
3Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SEA 1.71 xGEDM 3.91 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.541st2nd3rdEDM goal, 2:51SEA goal, 9:06EDM goal, 17:33EDM goal, 18:55

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SEA19 on goal, 1 scored
EDM25 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SEA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. StephensonC011100-1018:071:19
B. McMannC101323-1017:581:21
J. EberleRW011111-1017:101:21
M. BeniersC000100-1016:062:24
B. CattonC000101-1015:402:21
S. WrightC000000-1014:402:07
J. McCannLW000200-3014:291:23
K. KakkoRW000011-1013:112:20
M. SamoskevichRW0000310011:540:00
F. GaudreauC0003010011:370:00
R. WintertonC0001010211:260:00
B. MeyersC0000110010:590:00
V. DunnD000111-1423:501:20
A. LarssonD0000030023:390:00
B. MontourD000052-31023:212:26
R. EvansD000220-2219:030:00
R. LindgrenD0002000513:570:18
C. FleuryD0002220013:470:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
P. Grubauer24222.91759:06Loss
J. Daccord000–0:00

EDM Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. McDavidC112410+2026:174:30
L. DraisaitlC101510+2024:084:28
V. PodkolzinRW011260+2020:224:16
A. FormentonLW011220+1014:030:00
O. MichaelsRW101311+1013:580:00
K. KapanenRW0001000017:483:32
M. JosephRW000111+1015:040:00
C. DachC0001420212:331:36
M. JonesLW000120049:420:22
I. HowardLW000110008:221:33
T. FredericC000060058:151:17
J. SamanskiC000010006:180:00
R. SheaD011010+2021:311:31
E. BouchardD000210+1027:014:13
M. EkholmD000022+11022:410:00
C. MurphyD000002+2219:210:00
J. WalmanD0002000013:521:48
T. EmbersonD0000100011:220:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Levi20191.95059:38Win
T. Jarry000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SEA

Line 1J. Eberle14:08B. McMann15:10C. Stephenson13:47
Line 2M. Beniers11:58J. McCann11:33K. Kakko10:51
Line 3S. Wright11:04B. Catton11:46R. Winterton9:55
Line 4F. Gaudreau8:38M. Samoskevich10:57B. Meyers7:42
Pair 1A. Larsson17:42V. Dunn18:52
Pair 2B. Montour16:42R. Evans15:43
Pair 3C. Fleury12:37R. Lindgren10:25

EDM

Line 1L. Draisaitl16:30C. McDavid17:42V. Podkolzin14:53
Line 2M. Joseph12:53O. Michaels11:52A. Formenton11:54
Line 3K. Kapanen12:00C. Dach10:20M. Jones9:17
Line 4I. Howard6:49J. Samanski6:18T. Frederic6:58
Pair 1M. Ekholm18:05E. Bouchard18:59
Pair 2C. Murphy16:18R. Shea16:31
Pair 3T. Emberson11:19J. Walman10:52

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

4 of 20 overs hit (20%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
EDM C. McDavid3.5-102-1254Over
EDM L. Draisaitl3.5-102-1255Over
SEA B. McMann2.5+120-1503Over
SEA B. Montour2.5+125-1400Under
EDM E. Bouchard2.5-130+1202Under
SEA J. McCann2.5+150-1902Under
EDM V. Podkolzin2.5-125+1102Under
SEA A. Larsson1.5+165-2200Under
EDM C. Murphy1.5+110-1500Under
EDM I. Howard1.5-140+1051Under
SEA J. Eberle1.5-125-1021Under
EDM J. Walman1.5-165+1252Over
SEA K. Kakko1.5+160-2200Under
EDM K. Kapanen1.5-140+1351Under
SEA M. Beniers1.5+105-1201Under
EDM M. Ekholm1.5-130+1000Under
SEA M. Samoskevich1.5-120-1100Under
SEA R. Winterton1.5+130-1551Under
EDM T. Frederic1.5+105-1400Under
SEA V. Dunn1.5-175+1601Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreSEA 3.0, EDM 3.7SEA 1, EDM 3
Total goals6.84
Shots on goalSEA 25.0, EDM 31.9SEA 20, EDM 25
Win chanceEDM 61%EDM won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
EDM C. McDavid3.641.63239%1
EDM L. Draisaitl2.951.44142%1
EDM E. Bouchard2.721.10018%0
SEA B. McMann2.430.56126%1
SEA B. Montour2.300.47014%0
EDM A. Formenton2.120.44120%0
SEA J. McCann2.120.71026%0
EDM V. Podkolzin2.120.55120%0
EDM K. Kapanen2.010.51019%0
SEA J. Eberle1.810.62122%0
SEA V. Dunn1.710.52011%0
SEA R. Winterton1.610.3109%0
EDM J. Walman1.620.3408%0
SEA M. Beniers1.610.54020%0
EDM M. Ekholm1.500.4608%0
EDM I. Howard1.410.24010%0
SEA B. Catton1.310.29013%0
EDM C. Murphy1.200.2706%0
SEA A. Larsson1.200.2907%0
SEA K. Kakko1.200.53017%0
SEA S. Wright1.100.40016%0
EDM T. Frederic1.100.20011%0
SEA F. Gaudreau1.130.36015%0
EDM M. Jones1.110.2109%0
SEA B. Meyers1.000.23011%0
SEA C. Stephenson1.010.59118%0
EDM C. Dach1.010.2309%0
EDM R. Shea0.900.3817%0
EDM M. Joseph0.910.2508%0
SEA R. Evans0.720.2807%0
SEA R. Lindgren0.620.1703%0
EDM J. Samanski0.500.21010%0

Shots on goal: 20 of 32 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.