Game Recap: SEA 4, FLA 5 (SO), March 24, 2026

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Game Recap

SEA4

Final/SOTue, Mar 24, 2026Every game that night

FLA5

FLA beat SEA 5-4 in a shootout, with the chances close: 2.82 expected goals to 2.88. J. Eberle led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Larsson had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. S. Bobrovsky stopped 23 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
SEA	0	0	4	0	4
FLA	0	1	3	1	5

2nd 2:32FLAN. Foote0.28 xG
3rd 5:16FLAE. Luostarinen0.13 xG
3rd 7:37FLAC. Verhaeghe0.04 xG
3rd 8:10SEAR. Evans0.02 xG
3rd 12:21FLAN. Gregor0.01 xG
3rd 14:17SEAM. Beniers0.19 xG
3rd 16:24SEAJ. Eberle0.19 xG
3rd 16:38SEAB. McMann0.22 xG

Team Stats

SEAFLA

27Shots on goal24

2.88Expected goals2.82

54Shot attempts55

275v5 shots on goal20

0/1Power play0/1

15Hits34

18Blocked shots11

2Penalty minutes2

13Giveaways16

5Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SEA 2.88 xGFLA 2.82 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SEA27 on goal, 4 scored

FLA22 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Eberle	RW	1	1	2	3	0	1	+2	0	21:59	1:16
M. Beniers	C	1	0	1	3	0	2	+2	0	22:52	1:25
B. McMann	C	1	0	1	4	3	1	+1	0	22:19	1:15
B. Catton	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	19:59	0:29
C. Stephenson	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	22:11	1:31
F. Gaudreau	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	17:43	0:00
K. Kakko	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	17:09	0:24
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	0	0	0	2	3	-1	0	15:54	0:44
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	14:47	0:45
B. Meyers	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	9:12	0:00
J. Melanson	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	5:49	0:00
B. Montour	D	0	1	1	3	2	3	-1	0	26:46	0:35
A. Larsson	D	0	1	1	4	0	3	+1	0	21:15	0:00
R. Evans	D	1	0	1	1	0	0	+2	2	15:26	0:00
V. Dunn	D	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	22:33	1:26
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-2	0	18:05	0:10
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:23	0:00
C. Fleury	D	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	7:54	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Daccord	24	21	4	.875	64:44	OT loss
P. Grubauer	0	0	0	–	0:00

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Gregor	LW	1	1	2	3	0	0	+2	0	10:26	0:00
E. Luostarinen	C	1	0	1	2	3	0	-1	0	20:34	0:56
E. Rodrigues	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	-1	0	19:46	0:59
C. Verhaeghe	C	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	17:47	1:04
V. Hinostroza	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	15:30	0:58
N. Foote	LW	1	0	1	1	3	0	+2	0	10:47	0:00
M. Tkachuk	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	19:59	1:04
S. Bennett	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	18:59	1:02
J. Boqvist	C	0	0	0	1	4	1	-2	0	17:47	1:00
T. Nosek	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	14:35	0:00
C. Reinhardt	LW	0	0	0	0	9	1	-1	0	12:26	0:00
L. Kunin	C	0	0	0	0	4	0	+2	0	10:18	0:00
G. Forsling	D	0	1	1	2	2	0	+1	0	24:06	0:00
S. Jones	D	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	23:07	1:00
A. Ekblad	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	2	21:54	0:56
D. Kulikov	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	20:31	0:00
D. Sebrango	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	0	0	17:53	0:00
M. Benning	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	16:35	1:01

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Bobrovsky	27	23	4	.852	65:00	Win
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SEA

Line 1C. Stephenson17:31B. McMann19:25K. Kakko16:45

Line 2J. Eberle18:58M. Beniers19:20B. Catton18:22

Line 3E. Tolvanen13:52F. Gaudreau15:50S. Wright12:57

Line 4B. Meyers8:13J. Melanson5:49

Pair 1A. Larsson20:02V. Dunn18:47

Pair 2B. Montour23:26R. Lindgren16:29

Pair 3J. Oleksiak10:36R. Evans14:54

FLA

Line 1J. Boqvist15:56E. Luostarinen17:38E. Rodrigues15:56

Line 2S. Bennett15:17M. Tkachuk16:09C. Verhaeghe14:50

Line 3V. Hinostroza13:20T. Nosek13:59C. Reinhardt12:26

Line 4L. Kunin10:18N. Foote10:47N. Gregor10:26

Pair 1A. Ekblad20:03G. Forsling21:18

Pair 2D. Kulikov19:10S. Jones19:35

Pair 3D. Sebrango17:16M. Benning14:16

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamBrandon Montour SEA Faces FLA, his team until Jun 20241 A, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SEA 2.7, FLA 3.2	SEA 4, FLA 5
Total goals	5.9	9
Shots on goal	SEA 23.9, FLA 29.6	SEA 27, FLA 24
Win chance	FLA 57%	FLA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
FLA S. Bennett	2.7	3	0.83	0	31%	0
FLA M. Tkachuk	2.6	1	1.05	0	31%	0
SEA B. Montour	2.3	3	0.50	1	13%	0
FLA C. Verhaeghe	2.3	1	0.74	1	27%	1
FLA E. Rodrigues	2.3	2	0.54	1	19%	0
SEA B. McMann	2.1	4	0.57	1	25%	1
SEA V. Dunn	1.9	4	0.58	0	12%	0
SEA J. Eberle	1.8	3	0.63	2	21%	1
FLA S. Jones	1.7	2	0.47	0	10%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.7	0	0.48	0	20%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.6	3	0.57	1	21%	1
FLA A. Ekblad	1.5	1	0.52	0	10%	0
FLA G. Forsling	1.5	2	0.36	1	8%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.3	2	0.43	1	14%	1
SEA B. Catton	1.2	0	0.27	1	12%	0
FLA N. Foote	1.2	1	0.28	1	14%	1
SEA S. Wright	1.2	1	0.43	0	18%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.2	4	0.30	1	7%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.2	1	0.45	0	15%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.1	0	0.62	0	18%	0
FLA L. Kunin	1.1	0	0.18	0	10%	0
FLA V. Hinostroza	1.1	2	0.25	1	11%	0
SEA C. Fleury	1.0	0	0.13	0	3%	0
FLA C. Reinhardt	1.0	0	0.22	0	11%	0
SEA F. Gaudreau	1.0	2	0.37	0	15%	0
SEA B. Meyers	1.0	0	0.25	0	12%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	1.0	1	0.29	0	13%	0
FLA T. Nosek	1.0	2	0.24	0	7%	0
FLA D. Kulikov	0.9	0	0.21	0	5%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	0.9	1	0.20	0	5%	0
FLA N. Gregor	0.8	3	0.14	2	7%	1
FLA D. Sebrango	0.8	1	0.15	0	3%	0
SEA R. Lindgren	0.7	0	0.22	0	4%	0
FLA M. Benning	0.7	0	0.32	0	3%	0
SEA R. Evans	0.7	1	0.25	1	6%	1
SEA J. Melanson	0.7	0	0.15	0	7%	0

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.