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Game Recap
SEA3
FinalSat, Oct 17, 2026Every game that night
FLA8

FLA beat SEA 8-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.61 expected goals to 1.64. FLA outshot SEA 37 to 23. C. Verhaeghe scored three for FLA. B. Tkachuk had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.7. J. Markstrom stopped 20 of 23.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
SEA1113
FLA3328
  1. 1st 1:05FLAS. Bennett0.31 xG
  2. 1st 4:54SEAS. Wright0.06 xG
  3. 1st 17:56FLAC. Verhaeghe0.10 xG
  4. 1st 19:07FLAC. VerhaeghePP0.08 xG
  5. 2nd 6:02FLAC. Verhaeghe0.13 xG
  6. 2nd 6:42FLAN. Mikkola0.05 xG
  7. 2nd 13:13FLAS. Bennett0.17 xG
  8. 2nd 19:05SEAF. Gaudreau0.17 xG
  9. 3rd 2:25FLAS. ReinhartPP0.25 xG
  10. 3rd 3:49SEAR. Evans0.09 xG
  11. 3rd 11:14FLAS. Bennett0.14 xG

Team Stats

SEAFLA
23Shots on goal37
1.64Expected goals4.61
45Shot attempts79
185v5 shots on goal28
0/4Power play2/3
20Hits27
17Blocked shots12
6Penalty minutes6
14Giveaways13
5Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SEA 1.64 xGFLA 4.61 xGGoal

0123451st2nd3rdFLA goal, 1:05SEA goal, 4:54FLA goal, 17:56FLA goal, 19:07FLA goal, 6:02FLA goal, 6:42FLA goal, 13:13SEA goal, 19:05FLA goal, 2:25SEA goal, 3:49FLA goal, 11:14

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SEA23 on goal, 3 scored
FLA37 on goal, 8 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SEA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
K. KakkoRW022100+1215:073:23
B. CattonC022201+1015:003:47
F. GaudreauC1011110015:170:05
S. WrightC101111+1014:182:45
J. McCannLW0002100018:593:33
M. BeniersC0000210018:442:21
M. SamoskevichRW0001110016:401:37
B. McMannC000020-4015:243:32
C. StephensonC000101-5015:233:06
J. EberleRW000103-5014:003:35
B. MeyersC000111+1013:370:00
R. WintertonC000211+1012:100:00
R. EvansD101211-1223:163:35
A. LarssonD011111-1218:550:08
V. DunnD000302-2020:303:23
J. MahuraD0001200018:340:00
V. OttavainenD000200-1016:030:00
C. FleuryD000162-1015:390:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Daccord37298.78458:34Loss
P. Grubauer000–0:00

FLA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. VerhaegheC303510+1017:052:33
M. TkachukLW033410+3012:542:46
S. BennettC303421+3012:250:00
S. ReinhartC112300+1017:262:44
B. TkachukLW022710+4213:312:31
L. EllerC011001+1016:140:00
A. LundellC0001210016:380:15
S. VilmanisLW0002410016:350:02
E. LuostarinenC0002100016:270:04
G. HathawayRW000040-1012:540:00
B. ImamaLW000141-1010:450:00
S. LaffertyC000211-2210:440:00
N. MikkolaD112311+3020:120:00
S. JonesD011113+2022:152:48
G. ForslingD0111110021:200:17
D. KulikovD0111000217:210:00
U. BalinskisD011010+1017:160:00
A. EkbladD0000210019:580:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Markstrom23203.87060:00Win
A. Schmid000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

SEA

Line 1M. Beniers15:48M. Samoskevich15:03J. McCann13:07
Line 2R. Winterton11:32B. Meyers11:53F. Gaudreau12:53
Line 3J. Eberle10:25C. Stephenson10:46B. McMann10:26
Line 4K. Kakko10:20S. Wright11:33B. Catton9:47
Pair 1J. Mahura15:58V. Ottavainen16:03
Pair 2A. Larsson17:42V. Dunn14:41
Pair 3R. Evans16:22C. Fleury14:31

FLA

Line 1S. Vilmanis15:55A. Lundell12:52E. Luostarinen12:43
Line 2C. Verhaeghe14:31S. Reinhart13:02L. Eller12:51
Line 3S. Bennett11:46B. Tkachuk11:00M. Tkachuk9:44
Line 4S. Lafferty9:18B. Imama9:19G. Hathaway9:23
Pair 1A. Ekblad16:01G. Forsling17:01
Pair 2D. Kulikov15:55U. Balinskis15:50
Pair 3S. Jones15:30N. Mikkola16:09

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

9 of 17 overs hit (53%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
FLA B. Tkachuk3.5+112-1357Over
SEA B. McMann2.5+135-1400Under
FLA C. Verhaeghe2.5-114-1105Over
FLA M. Tkachuk2.5-115+1054Over
FLA S. Bennett2.5+105-1254Over
FLA S. Reinhart2.5+110-1253Over
SEA A. Larsson1.5+130-2001Under
FLA A. Lundell1.5-150+1251Under
SEA B. Catton1.5+120-1752Over
SEA J. Eberle1.5-105-1101Under
SEA J. McCann1.5-140+1252Over
SEA M. Beniers1.5+106-1300Under
SEA M. Samoskevich1.5-118+1051Under
SEA R. Winterton1.5+135-2002Over
FLA S. Jones1.5-168+1351Under
FLA U. Balinskis1.5+125-1900Under
SEA V. Dunn1.5-150+1263Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreSEA 2.8, FLA 3.2SEA 3, FLA 8
Total goals6.011
Shots on goalSEA 24.6, FLA 29.7SEA 23, FLA 37
Win chanceFLA 56%FLA won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
FLA B. Tkachuk3.770.87232%0
FLA M. Tkachuk2.841.13334%0
FLA S. Bennett2.840.77330%3
FLA S. Reinhart2.630.93237%1
FLA C. Verhaeghe2.550.83331%3
SEA B. McMann2.300.56025%0
SEA V. Dunn2.330.63013%0
FLA A. Lundell2.210.63022%0
FLA S. Jones2.110.56110%0
SEA J. McCann2.020.67025%0
SEA M. Samoskevich1.810.42017%0
SEA J. Eberle1.710.59021%0
FLA G. Forsling1.610.3418%0
FLA L. Eller1.600.38115%0
FLA A. Ekblad1.600.4208%0
SEA A. Larsson1.510.3418%0
SEA M. Beniers1.500.56021%0
FLA E. Luostarinen1.520.47016%0
SEA R. Winterton1.520.33010%0
SEA B. Catton1.320.38215%0
FLA U. Balinskis1.200.2015%0
SEA S. Wright1.210.40116%1
FLA N. Mikkola1.130.1925%1
FLA S. Vilmanis1.120.28013%0
SEA K. Kakko1.010.50216%0
SEA F. Gaudreau1.010.37115%1
SEA B. Meyers1.010.28012%0
SEA C. Stephenson0.910.60018%0
SEA R. Evans0.920.3418%1
SEA V. Ottavainen0.920.1603%0
SEA J. Mahura0.810.1903%0
FLA D. Kulikov0.810.1513%0
FLA G. Hathaway0.800.1609%0
FLA B. Imama0.710.0805%0
FLA S. Lafferty0.720.1508%0

Shots on goal: 20 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.