Game Recap: SEA 2, LAK 1, April 7, 2025

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Game Recap

SEA2

FinalMon, Apr 7, 2025Every game that night

LAK1

SEA beat LAK 2-1, with the chances close: 2.52 expected goals to 2.28. M. Anderson had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. J. Daccord stopped 28 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
SEA	2	0	0	2
LAK	1	0	0	1

1st 1:48LAKQ. Byfield0.28 xG
1st 18:35SEAM. Beniers0.35 xG
1st 19:29SEAB. Montour0.05 xG

Team Stats

SEALAK

28Shots on goal29

2.52Expected goals2.28

51Shot attempts77

235v5 shots on goal24

0/1Power play0/3

24Hits18

30Blocked shots10

8Penalty minutes4

21Giveaways14

11Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

SEA 2.52 xGLAK 2.28 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

SEA28 on goal, 2 scored

LAK29 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Beniers	C	1	0	1	3	0	5	+1	0	20:01	0:55
C. Stephenson	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	19:34	0:57
J. Eberle	RW	0	1	1	1	2	1	+1	2	17:34	0:56
K. Kakko	RW	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	15:19	0:55
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	0	0	2	3	1	+1	0	21:07	0:00
J. McCann	LW	0	0	0	3	0	2	-1	2	16:39	1:05
J. Schwartz	LW	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	15:26	1:05
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	12:08	1:04
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	11:21	1:02
J. Hayden	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	9:02	0:00
M. Eyssimont	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	8:53	0:00
T. Kartye	LW	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	8:26	0:00
B. Montour	D	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	21:59	1:07
J. Oleksiak	D	0	1	1	0	1	5	+1	0	20:38	0:00
V. Dunn	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	23:31	0:53
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	3	2	6	0	2	22:29	0:01
J. Mahura	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	14:44	0:00
C. Fleury	D	0	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	13:09	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Daccord	29	28	1	.966	60:00	Win
P. Grubauer	0	0	0	–	0:00

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
Q. Byfield	RW	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	22:02	2:46
A. Laferriere	RW	0	1	1	1	4	1	+1	0	17:36	0:00
K. Fiala	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	22:18	2:46
A. Kopitar	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	20:17	2:44
A. Kuzmenko	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	20:15	2:49
T. Moore	LW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	17:22	1:21
P. Danault	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	16:57	1:24
W. Foegele	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	16:28	1:20
A. Kempe	RW	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	0	13:21	2:48
J. Malott	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	9:33	0:00
S. Helenius	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	5:08	0:00
T. Lewis	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	4:54	0:00
K. Burroughs	D	0	1	1	0	3	1	0	0	9:28	0:00
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	24:35	1:04
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	22:58	0:18
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	4	0	1	-1	0	21:45	0:20
B. Clarke	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	4	21:26	1:05
J. Moverare	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:50	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Kuemper	28	26	2	.929	57:47	Loss
D. Rittich	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	SEA 2.7, LAK 3.2	SEA 2, LAK 1
Total goals	6.0	3
Shots on goal	SEA 25.5, LAK 29.2	SEA 28, LAK 29
Win chance	LAK 58%	SEA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
LAK A. Kempe	2.8	4	0.87	0	34%	0
LAK K. Fiala	2.8	1	0.82	0	30%	0
LAK W. Foegele	2.5	2	0.58	0	23%	0
LAK T. Moore	2.3	3	0.59	0	23%	0
SEA J. McCann	2.3	3	0.62	0	25%	0
SEA B. Montour	2.2	3	0.40	1	12%	1
LAK A. Laferriere	2.2	1	0.42	1	17%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	1.9	1	0.66	1	21%	1
SEA J. Schwartz	1.9	4	0.44	0	19%	0
SEA V. Dunn	1.8	0	0.50	0	10%	0
SEA M. Beniers	1.7	3	0.48	1	20%	1
LAK A. Kuzmenko	1.6	0	0.72	0	28%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.6	2	0.40	0	19%	0
LAK P. Danault	1.6	3	0.57	0	18%	0
SEA J. Eberle	1.6	1	0.49	1	19%	0
SEA M. Eyssimont	1.6	1	0.20	0	9%	0
LAK B. Clarke	1.5	3	0.38	0	6%	0
SEA A. Burakovsky	1.4	2	0.41	0	14%	0
SEA K. Kakko	1.3	2	0.40	1	16%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.3	3	0.26	0	6%	0
LAK A. Kopitar	1.2	1	0.78	0	23%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.2	1	0.51	0	20%	0
LAK V. Gavrikov	1.2	3	0.31	0	6%	0
LAK M. Anderson	1.1	4	0.27	0	6%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.0	0	0.56	1	17%	0
LAK T. Lewis	1.0	0	0.18	0	9%	0
LAK J. Spence	0.9	1	0.30	0	4%	0
SEA J. Mahura	0.9	0	0.16	0	2%	0
SEA J. Hayden	0.9	1	0.09	0	6%	0
SEA C. Fleury	0.8	0	0.08	0	2%	0
SEA T. Kartye	0.8	2	0.17	0	9%	0
LAK J. Malott	0.8	2	0.15	0	9%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	0.8	0	0.15	1	4%	0
LAK S. Helenius	0.6	0	0.15	0	7%	0
LAK J. Moverare	0.5	0	0.12	0	2%	0
LAK K. Burroughs	0.3	0	0.04	1	1%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.